Flight Rising Discussion

[center][size=7][u]Countdown to 8x8 & 90mil[/u][/size] [size=5]IDs #88888888 & #90000000[/size] [size=5][url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3263175/111#post_55323044]90 mil has hatched at 12:12 FRT![/url][/size] [size=2][url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3263175/7#post_54986508]Estimate 9/3/23 [/url] ~[url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3263175/73#post_55300943]Estimate 10/19/23[/url] ~ [url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3263175/81#post_55320783]Estimate 10/22/23[/url][/size] [size=3][url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3263175/49#post_54998239]#88888888 hatched 04:59 FRT![/url][/size] [size=2][url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3263175/4#post_54954604]Estimate 8/29/23[/url] ~ [url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3263175/7#post_54986508]Estimate 9/3/23[/url][/center] Time sure does fly fast; our 80mil thread went live over a year ago now, but it feels like it was yesterday! If you’ve joined us in previous years, welcome back; if you’re new to special ID tracking, welcome to the countdown shenanigans, and we hope you'll enjoy the main event! As usual, we're keeping the bulk of the [url=http://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/2352225/1]40mil[/url]/[url=http://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/2498642/1]4x8[/url]/[url=http://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/2614095/1]50mil[/url]/[url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/2732282]5x8[/url]/[url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/2809483]60mil[/url]/[url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/2959193/1]6x8[/url]/[url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3016676/1]70mil[/url]/[url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3123766/1]7x8[/url]/[url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3150153/1]80mil[/url] threads to formulate this one, but for the first time, because these IDs will happen so close together, we’re doing a combination thread! This is to help us get ready for next year when 9x9 and 100mil hatch back-to-back. This thread will be keeping track of the latest hatched ID numbers to help us prepare for the big hatches! Someone (either myself or anyone on the thread) will be keeping track of the latest IDs and updating you guys on the progress, and I'll be updating the front page with these estimates accordingly. We'll let you guys know when we're very close, and when it hatches! If you would like to be pinged, please add yourself to the self-editing pinglist linked below! Thank you [url=https://flightrising.com/main.php?p=lair&tab=userpage&id=156935]Valyrie[/url] for making the original pinglist <3 [b]Please note:[/b] I'm not going to be super available due to my IRL responsibilities; I won't be as active as I have been in the past. I likely won't respond to pinglist requests, but I will try to answer questions as best as I can! [u]I would immensely appreciate anyone's help predicting, answering pinglist requests, etc.![/u] Remember, anyone can use the pinglist to update, so long as you don't spam! I will try to respond as I am available :> There are [u]6[/u] pinglists this time around: General, Close Countdown, and the final hatch for each respective ID (8x8 and 90mil). [LIST] [*]General is for normal ID updates; it will be merged with close countdown when close countdown activates. [*]Close Countdown will start pinging at #88800000 (for 8x8) or #89900000 (for 90mil) - depending on which you select, about 100k dragons away from the hatch itself. [*]8x8 and 90mil are just for when the dragon hatches, for your information! [/LIST] You can add yourself to as many of these as you want! If you'd like to just see the hatches, add yourself to 8x8 and/or 90mil; if you'd like to see everything, add yourself to all six! For 8x8, we will ping the 8x8 General pinglist; after 8x8, we will switch to the 90mil General pinglist. If you want to be updated for both IDs, please add yourself to both general pinglists! [center][size=6][url=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1RRqBofGApiuMZ7TI8lLyeedciDfJaXPRo4B7RoHTkaU/edit?usp=sharing][b]> SELF EDITING PINGLIST HERE <[/b][/url][/size][/center] [center][i]Remember, this link hosts the relevant pinglists for [b]both[/b] 8x8 [b]and[/b] 90mil![/i][/center] [b]Please note:[/b] if you have trouble adding yourself to the pinglist due to technical difficulties, feel free to ask for help, or ping anyone below to add you manually: [LIST] [*]@VoidedMortal [*]@mayanaz [/LIST] If anyone else would like to help, you're more than welcome to; if you'd like to be added up here so people can ping you, please let me know! For those who have helped out, thank you! <3 To help streamline the process, [u]let us know [b]which of the pinglists (or all)[/b] that you'd like to be on[/u] so we can get you on there right away! :D Any and all discussion regarding the hatch is also welcome, but please be mindful and try not to overload the thread; our main focus is to keep track and count down. If anyone has any estimated predictions as to when the hatch may be, feel free to share, it would be super helpful for the rest of us! Some rules for the thread: [LIST=1] [*]Be nice! We're here to have fun and hopefully hatch the lucky numbers :D [*]Follow forum rules: stay on topic, no pyramid quotes, etc. [*][b]DO NOT HARASS ANY USERS FOR THEIR HATCHES.[/b] Whoever hatches 8x8/90mil (or any neat ID/dragon) has the right to do what they want with the dragon, and spamming them (even to congratulate them) through pings, profile comments, or messages is considered unwarranted harassment and against the rules. You may congratulate them here, but please do not ping them or link directly to the dragon! Whoever hatches is free to state if they're open to congratulations or buy inquiries by [i]their own discretion[/i]. [b]This rule has been [url=http://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/2352225/5#post_31139229]emphasized by Aequorin[/url]![/b] [*]Anyone is free to use the pinglist, but please be considerate/respect the sections and check when the last ping was sent out! As a rule of thumb, one ping a day is ideal! [/LIST] [size=5][u][b]FAQ:[/b][/u][/size] [LIST] [*][b]How often am I pinged for ID updates?[/b] The closer we get, the more frequent the pings will be! When I've done it in the past, depending on how busy I was, I'd start by pinging around every 1-7 days. As we got closer, I'd start pinging daily as best as possible! Usually when I pinged close countdown, I aimed for regular daily pings. However, I don't have a schedule for others who ping. For anyone else that does, I recommend using the above as a guideline! [*][b]How often do you ping for ID hatch estimates?[/b] Due to how busy I am, I may not be posting the estimates (or as frequently). Someone usually does at least on a semi regular basis in my absence, though! Historically, I'd post an estimate around every two weeks to start; as we got closer, I aimed for once a week, then every few days. Keep in mind, however, that around 1-3 days before the anticipated hatch, any further estimates become volatile, and it's more efficient to just keep an active eye on the latest hatches. At that point, you may never know when it'll hit! [*][b]Do you know when the ID will hatch?[/b] Nope, not at all! That's why we do estimates [emoji=spiral tongue size=1] We keep past estimates into consideration when we make the next ones. However, we can only guess approximately when it'll come! [*][b]How do you make your estimates?[/b] Nowadays, people use spreadsheets to calculate the estimated hatch date/time, but originally, I wrote all my math out in my estimate posts! To do that, I calculate a [i]hatch rate[/i] of how many dragons per minute (dpm) hatch on average in a given time, and use that value to estimate how much more time we have. When I have multiple values from multiple estimates, I give an average, minimum, and maximum estimate. Both methods have proven to work, whether done by hand or calculated by code! [*][b]How accurate are your estimates?[/b] It varies! It all depends on how many people are hatching dragons. Some events - like the Banescale and Aether releases with two eggs per person, or Dustcarve Dig with a free egg and Obelisk statue - and holidays can result in massive hatch rate jumps, which will bring the date closer, and sometimes there are lulls in activity that push it farther. Since hatch rates are averages on the past, they don't reflect what may happen tomorrow. If things stay consistent, our estimates stay consistent! But we typically do enough estimates that we'll eventually narrow down to the correct date sooner or later. [*][b]Can you add me to the pinglist?[/b] The pinglist is self-editing; you can add yourself! However, sometimes there are technical difficulties; it's common for mobile users to have trouble adding themselves. If you need help, let anybody who volunteered (listed above) know, and which pinglists you want to be on! [*][b]Can you ping me at #88880000/#88888000/#89990000/#89999000/any close ID?[/b] Sorry, there won't be any coordinated special pings after Close Countdown is triggered! I (or anyone here) will keep making general updates, but there are so many different times people could anticipate that I can't manage. Especially as we get closer, it may happen while I'm away or asleep! You're more than free to track for yourself, or if someone else wants to ping a small group, that's more than okay too! [*][b]Can you ping me when to hatch?[/b] Unfortunately, I can't do this, because it defeats the purpose! There's no set number to hatch at, because it all depends on when other people hatch, and how many other people are attempting. It's a matter of luck due to timing! Internet speed, personal reaction time, and hatching setup all come into play. Intuition is your best bet here! Additionally, if I told everyone a certain time to hatch or gave everyone a method, it wouldn't be helpful anymore/the method wouldn't work. Plus, it's more fun to guess! :D However, I can tell you to anticipate a lull before everyone hatches and a massive, cascading wave of hatches as people attempt. Don't forget to account for internet and site lag! [*][b]What should I do to prepare?[/b] Fill as many nests and get as many unhatched eggs as you can! I personally fill my nests early on and hatch smaller ones so I can get as many 4-5 egg nests as possible. If your pairs are all on cooldown, get some pretty RTB fodder! [*][b]How many nests/eggs should I have?[/b] As many as you can get! No number guarantees a hatch, it just ups the chances. There have been many times where people have gotten neat IDs with two or three unhatched eggs or a single nest! [*][b]Can I be pinged for future ID countdowns?[/b] Absolutely! If you pop on over to [url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/drs/2558806]SIDHA[/url], our sign up spreadsheet has an option to be pinged for future countdowns! You don't have to sign up for our pinglists to sign up for future countdowns; it's an entirely separate option. [emoji=new friend size=1] [/LIST] If you're interested in counting down with others on discord, SIDHA's discord server is open for you to join! We have a role and chat/voice section dedicated to ID countdowns just for events like these. Rules and guidelines on roles are available upon joining! Remember that [b]all FR rules apply[/b] because we're linked on site. You can join by clicking the banner below: [center][url=https://discord.gg/pEAG5Kk][img]https://i.imgur.com/rJxoMMv.png[/img][/url][/center] @SeraphSoldier made another adorable banner that you are free to use! [center][url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3263175/1][img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1024715153507352686/1147718129317847133/image0.png[/img][/url][/center] [code][center][url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/3263175/1][img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1024715153507352686/1147718129317847133/image0.png[/img][/url][/center][/code] With that, good luck, and happy hatching! <3

it's time y'all! we're doing 8x8 and 90mil in one thread since they're so close together & to practice for 9x9 and 100mil B)

@Alphazi @HenryTheArcher @PepperClove @SashaFiredake @eonflute @teacookie @SilverQuark @CapriReve @Roccoco @Foxe @squidspeaker @Cunea @Emordnilap @ItsMeSunnyD @PAlbatross @Wraith296 @mayanaz @LynterriaHatake @SparkyLurkdragon @NekoIceDragon @SeeTheStars @RaptorQueen @GlitterDCMarvel @AnoraBorealis @AoiNoRyuu @SolEtLuna @Aoji @Bullet2019 @Ozma @lithiumdream @MoonlitCacti @chants @Grovey @Starsoul @FairyForestKing @Korwa @Asherah @sirspiderider @8611945 @warriorjames @Lordmaroo @parasites @boysenberry @Vaixation @Tserin @Vei @mordacious @Loras @AlexTheTrashBin @VoidedMortal @eternatus @Saraceaser @Nekokitty813 @Taelen @kyruiz @CinamonPIzza @ThistleProse @Anduins @Tuatara @UmberR @decoratchi @WhiteVenom @ForeverFalling @Delphi @BrinBellway @Qhersek @Sunokosan @pups @Feathery57 @TheAwesoMew @arrowXflight @montromising @minervamaga @GuardParade @Mathematicalmind @IllusiveFox @Alfamangle @umecat @sackname @Hideki @pythonesque @sparkwings @DarkwingDove @zimsomnia @FishingNet @aeons @Spark @SilverRipple @VariantLoki @Vabam @AmazingMelonz @Kilwin @Thunderwyvern @Bezonox @EveTD @WolfTrickster @March @sleepyboi @MapleMatcha @Norion @Rainbowlight @JazzyLynx @RealityMask @TheLoversMask @cozymoth @merit @Kirority @Cats @Sollo @AWB @Wonderling @snapdragonfruit @SyiiTormey @Blushunt @BlurryReflection @Friege @Sinjin @CryBabxyIsha @DragonSquid @Winterize @printipin @artichoke @oof @Vader @Spooner @CrosstheVoid @AbbyLoRawr @DragonWolfAZ @Silverbolt1159 @lopsidedhead @61i7ch @vasilyssa @Namira @Stormfly @toxicwisteria @DemonHearts @Unsettling @Humane @ItMeansHope @mcdamnalds @CrownedLadybug @Fwooomf @Outlook @Seraph822 @spiderwick @Sushimonsterr @Laugh @Henchman @SeraphSoldier @Dask @silks @Undusk @Arah @SuspiciousCleric @Aristata @Empanada @martine @QuirkyJunimo @BWAPPI @Kumary @GladiolusXI @Ginbet @LABS107 @GrumpyKettle @ChesireCLAM @triglyphs @paintminion @sav101w @kxida @Corvian @minim @SleepyPoet @404ANACONDA @ShinyQuagsire @siskiyou @Lykos @yukublack @Amaranthe413 @mungmungbean @JotaroCujoh @AspenCrow @Dytileea @asolrock @tcmagpie @samrie @Motanir @Zebrask @changgwi @jelllitan @GlitchyOddy @Britty @1996 @GangstaAlpaca @crowael @Gethsemane @Alyxsandre @Spinosaur @nothingtown @RubyFlareon @Opalline @Norayna0ekoa @TheDEV1L @BelleA @decoratchi @angemagica @Musvete38 @bubbaberriboo @SerendipityShine @DuckofFight92 @xenonentity @DarkNiiinja @CyanicOcean @VioletKatGrove @undertones @LokiTheDutchie @Sunbittern @Kapro @Scramble @ninety9wyverns @MinkPelt @MrPilgrim @Hmm @AddieMallory @lexiepiper @Namoki @TheCicadas

and as always, per tradition, here is an egg to start off the countdown! [url=https://www1.flightrising.com/dragon/88322312][img]https://www1.flightrising.com/rendern/350/883224/88322312_350.png[/img][/url]

pretty! [img]https://www1.flightrising.com/dgen/preview/dragon?age=1&body=26&bodygene=213&breed=13&element=2&eyetype=2&gender=0&tert=93&tertgene=18&winggene=17&wings=128&auth=9c6521d1cdaba1903eb8b180a105d325238e8776&dummyext=prev.png[/img]

i don't really follow IDs much but it's always exciting when the Alphazi countdown thread pops up <3 much luck to everyone trying to hatch a special ID!

Okay so basic math with very little data(EXTREMELY ROUGH ESTIMATE)

i timed fifteen minutes and watched the search page to see how many dragons hatched.
dragons hatched per 15 minutes = 255
255 dragons x 4 = 1020 dragons per hour
1020 dragons per hour x 24 hours a day = 24480 dragons per day
ID at end of fifteen minutes 88323281 - target id 88888888 = 565607 dragons till 8x8
565607 dragons / 24480 dragons per day = approximately 23 days until 8x8

ill be gathering more data for a more accurate estimate, but there's a ballpark for those curious!

ooh, I'd be interested in 8x8 for very obvious reasons! following along to see who that ID ends up with.

How are we already counting down to 90 mil, I remember still when we hit 80...... I feel old. My bones are turning to Dust.

I was wondering when this countdown thread would pop up! Very excited :>