ok, so it's been quite a few hours since i've last posted. i underestimated just how busy my schedule is recently which has only been leaving me a few hours of time intermittently to format posts. while i've already done a lot of speculation today, theres still one kind of big thing i've been toeing around touching on: my reads!! and at this point theres a LOT of stuff to go off of for reads.
so yea, heres my comprehensive reads list up to now [gonna be skipping tangle, fil, myself, and storia for semi-obvious reasons]. also gonna be using grammar and here so that its nicer formatted than most of my posts for sake of reading comprehension. i am not really adding much
________________________________________________________________
@
mcpearlie -
Scum-Leaning
I really really hate to form an opinion off of activity especially given that its formed situationally due to IRL stuff, but at this point you've been extremely lax with posting. At this point
I cant even consider the excuse of needing a TLDR viable as there are comprehensive summaries of most player's ISOs as seen in art's post here which you could easily have used as a summary for how many players have been acting so far. Besides that, your messages are really mostly fluff besides some explanations for inactivity and the one post regarding your stances of D1 elims that i appreciate but unfortunately did not add much substance to town.
As of right now, you've been placing podium on the majority of people's sus lists as "most scum-like", if not taking the #1 slot. So unless something major changes
you are honestly a top candidate for elimination (in my opinion), unfortunately.
________________________________________________________________
@
artmajor -
Town
If you're evil then hats off to you because damn I have a lot of faith in you as a town right now!! Straight off the bat, you were already pointing out contradictions in reasoning with Achro's initial ISO's regarding Ains as a town, as well as pointing out other circular logic like Viskara's disagreement with the ISO list that they just cited as accurate & well thought out.
On top of all of this I feel you've been really friendly and chipper through a lot of the game. Similar to how people were getting good vibes from Storm initially, I kind of feel like this general positive attitude + pretty good analysis as well as being able to amend any mistakes you made in wording your posts makes you feel like a strong townread. I also of course really respect the extremely long & detailed ISO you made on everyone (despite it ragging on me a little lol). I agree with the majority of it based off my recollection of what was written and you had a really good cohesive analysis on most players in the game so far.
Also unrelated but since you asked another town of salem like game i also used to play a lot is "throne is lies" but unfortunately it's kind of dead now :(( so im not too sure if youd find much enrichment from it.
________________________________________________________________
@/ainsell -
3p
Not even going to ping here since I think I've given a LOT of speculation towards Ainsell's potential role and wincon is. They've basically confirmed themself as a 3p through the lightning events and the only question is whether their wincon is of devious intent or not. my speculation for that is
here but TL;DR I feel like if my Ains=Quinn theory is true then their wincon may be released to "freeing modgod" as mentioned in the start-of-day-1 flavor text, which would unlock new powers for modgod turning the game from semi-b*stard to full on b*stard.
________________________________________________________________
@
lyrelore -
Inconclusive
I'm not sure what it is, but ever since the start of the game I've just gotten town vibes from you. Though to be honest, while my gut may be saying you are town, a deeper analysis on your messages leave me feeling pretty neutral on you. A lot of your (recent(d2)) messages have been fairly trusting towards others and I feel you've been pretty easily changing your opinion when new reasoning is presented. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, since the back and forth you had with storm for example led to some new defenses on their part which is helpful for us when determining who to vote. Ultimately, I kind of feel like you dropped a lot of the sus on Storm, which does sprout some concerns for me that you may not be steadfast enough on your own opinions later in the game when discussions will inevitably get more heated and having a strong opinions will be important.
Besides that, while I think a lot of your reasoning in posts is good I kind of think a lot of it ends up mirroring what others have said, or giving a really neutral stance on something which kind of holds up my viewpoint that you don't really take strong willed sides.
If I had to guess a reason for my gut trust in you I'd probably place it on the fact that so far I feel like I've had a pretty similar playstyle to you where I've kept a lot of my discussion to more neutral observations rather than pushing opinions.
Ultimately I still am inclined to trust you but given this all I feel like for now I have to put you as neutral. In my eyes you could equally be a non-aggressive townie or a mafia taking a passive stance, although like I mentioned I would prefer to lean towards townie.
(Sorry hopefully nothing here comes off as mean, and also if you want me to post specific examples of what I mean LMK. I'm going through ISOs while doing these but not really adding quotes and more so summarizing based on memory and general judgement so evidence for my reasoning may be unclear at times).
________________________________________________________________
@
Viskara -
Inconclusive
I really don't have a good read on you TBH!! To me, you're an individual who has spoken enough to not feel like they are lurking, but upon a closer look kind of has some lurking behavior. I don't feel like you have contributed anything of major substance since day 1, and even then a large amount of your contributions day 1 was just your fairly unique reads list. This at least helps prove that since the start you are not really one to follow the crowd in opinions, and to give you credit you were one of the earlier people to start throwing some sus at Ains given the amount of people preaching them as a top 3 town during day 1. But that's kind of it in terms of notable things I've seen from you.
Ultimately, I feel like the only thing holding you back from being scum leaning to me is the fact that you've retained some pretty individual opinions when they are expressed. You also called out Zikitty for inactivity which is something I wanted to do since their lack of messages was/is giving me bad vibes, so we were on the same wavelength on that one at least. Still, I would like to see maybe a new updated reads list from you of at least your top few town?
________________________________________________________________
@
Marketplace -
Town
I'm going to keep this brief since my reasoning is really straightforward. You've already given your role and your ability has been confirmed to be true since it aligns with Storm's passive claim (she went along with it instead of refuting the validity of your ability). As of right now I can't imagine why you would share results of an ability like this to us if you are a Mafia (or honestly why this ability would even be useful to a mafia role, outside of determining neutrals and a speculative multiball). Given our current info, the only reason I could imagine you would not be proven from your ability right now is if you are some neutral similar to the "Executioner" in Town of Salem, where your goal is to see a specific target player die (in this case storm). I think this is unlikely for a plethora of reasons though and therefore unless something new is brought up you are my 2nd most likely townread (2nd only to fil, duh).
And to give some reasoning outside of your roleclaim, I also still think you have had a lot of well thought out and expressed analysis' of situations stemming all the way from day 1 and continuing into today. And similar to my read of Cutbug, I appreciate how you are steadfast in your opinion (even if I don't agree that we should be voting out Storm this early).
________________________________________________________________
@
CaptainTsundere -
Slight Town Lean
Persistently I consider you a lurker in my head but in reality you have actually given a lot of opinionated and meaningful posts that generally contribute a lot. I really agree with your conjecture that Storm's other two abilities aren't intrinsically tied towards being a member of the Town. At the same time though, I also really disagree with the reasoning that just because it's unlikely Storm would be have a miller-like passive, she's lying. I still think she is leaning scum, but in a role madness game like this especially so early on I am absolutely not crossing any possibility for anything off the table. For all we know there are even more individuals than Storm with this type of passive, increasing statistic chances even more!
Besides that though, you have helped progress discussion: for example, prompting Storm to propose an alternative elimination besides herself. Nothing that would make me consider you a major town player, but just enough that prompts me to think you are more likely town than not. Still, the general lower amount of messages is off-putting for me. Kind of like the opposite of lyre where I'm more inclined to believe you are scum but in reality you have had some pretty helpful messages.
________________________________________________________________
@
KungFuCutBug -
Likely Town
Given the sus on you earlier today this is probably the take I least expected myself to have. However, I think it ultimately ended up leading to this analysis. Day 1 you were kind of in a super neutral position where you didn't really give much besides a neutral position on d1-elim, and then your read of ains-storm-market as most likely town (in which you quickly rescinded your read of ains and somewhat of storm upon getting called out). This left you in a pretty mediocre spot and the stasis overnight was NOT helping your case!! My read on you started taking a turn here though.
I think that given your new player status and general ansty vibe, if you were actually mafia you could have easily succumbed to the stress of the accusations on day 2. However, you actually ended up making a really strong case for yourself IMO, responding to a lot of the sus quickly with pretty believable defense too. This spurred more of a slight townread for me, but then your criticism of storm kind of locked you in as leaning town. I really agree with a lot of the points you made given that I also have some pretty decent amount of sus on Storm, and you had a lot of distinct reasoning for them too. Given your somewhat lack of activity\lack of major participation Day 1, I think that you've brought up a lot of good perspectives on the situation regarding Storm and that constitutes my townread for you. And your read of them has remained relatively consistent too, with you remaining steadfast in your opinion that they are a likely scum rather than bending under pressure to vote mcpearlie (at least for now). I don't entirely agree with voting out Storm for reasons I'll get to in their read, but I still like that you are at least sticking to your gut.
OFC I still have some small issues- my biggest being that you kind of only started with all this activity after a brush with scum accusations. But I don't really believe you are scum that got panicked into becoming more aggressive- rather, I find it more likely it just kind of served as a wake-up call to increase activity as a townie. There's also obviously still a lack of concrete explanation as to why and how you got stasis/unstasis'ed but I understand why nobody has spoken up lol.
________________________________________________________________
This is all the reads I'm able to get out right now: I have a lot more to say about others, especially Storm, and I'll probably be able to post that in around an hour or so from now. But its about to be midnight for me meaning Flight Rising undergoes maintenance so I want to get this out beforehand.
PLEASE ping me for clarification if anything here is messy: Its really late for me and im exhausted from the past school week so I may have misspoke at times and its also possible I misjudged some individuals since I didn't do a hyper-thorough ISO of each person. I'm not used to these really long messages so I fully anticipate some kind of contradictory logic I made during botched assumptions (i have a chronic habit of not trusting myself to write coherently in these kinds of high stakes situations so thats why im downplaying my reads so much lol)
____
________
Cutbug
