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Note: in most games I'd say take a shot if you have it but because no roles are set in stone, and at this level of the game... no. If it was a normal game and we were entering LyLo I'd tell the vig not to shoot unless there's practically a guarantee of hitting scum.

[quote name="ChaoticPotato" date="2022-04-18 14:21:22" ] I feel like at this point town should only be grabbing Cerise to stop maf from getting another nk. Maybe earlier when we had more leverage, but now there's just too few people to risk missing a shot. We're probably in MyLo/LyLo by now. It's a moot point because no one got it last night but that's my two cents. I mean if you managed to guess right then great, but I don't think anyone really has strong enough vibes. Or I'd suggest shooting the next day discussed lynch target, rather than someone who has mild vibes either way. A bit rambly, but I'm rushed right now. At work. [/quote] That's basically what I've been doing. Grabbed cerise again, as I have since D1, again with the intent to block mafia from getting it.

@pasture @HeartlessDemon I don't think you two have said anything today. How do you feel about Ambrose's death/Arg's last minute post last night/amulet claims? We're almost halfway through the day and at only a page and a half of discussion. I'd like to hear your thoughts. (Yeah I know we have more than half a day to go but it's stressing me out how quiet everyone is. I think now mote than any other day we need discussion because, hey, we could lose if we don't get scum. I'm halfway paranoid that Arg is a mislynch.)

...

Okay. Um, I'll be up really late tonight playing video games. I'll keep an eye on the thread to see if anyone responds. I'll probably get to bed around 2:00FRT.

Cerise (contested) - Shimmerwing, Vrykolakas

Rose (uncontested) - ChaoticPotato

Cream (uncontested) - Starstream (used on ChaoticPotato)

Cerulean (contested)- Shadowlugia711



So we're missing a few claims, but I feel like this is all the amulets that were claimed at all. Meaning whoever hadn't claimed is in one of the contested slots. Feels like everyone's settling into their preferred amulets. Maybe someone managed to snag Emerald. It would be pretty ironic of it was Ambrose. Tragic, but ironic, and therefore hilarious.

Right. Seeing as discussion has stagnated, here's a list of all those that both Firo and Ambrose were suspicious of before their NK, to have it all in one place. Not a comprehensive list, just from the day before. Firo: [quote name="Firo" date="2022-04-14 01:28:47" ] current vote tally: Argathakul: Varikset, ChaoticPotato, Starstream, HeartlessDemon, Solstices Solstices: Ambrose Warriorgirl1234: Firo, pasture Shimmerwing: Shadowlugia711 ChaoticPotato: Warriorgirl1234 Novoters: Shimmerwing, Vrykolakas, Behslot, Argathakul Shimmerwing voted, but unvoted. curiouser as a reminder, final claim tally. CONTESTED: Firo: Silver Emerald: Shimmerwing, Starstream, Solstices Aquamarine: pasture, HeartlessDemon, Warriorgirl1234 [snip, other amulet claims] interesting correlations: Argath's wagon has 2 of the Emerald claimants and one Aqua claimant stapled right to its ***. we'll see how coincidental that ends up being. [/quote] [quote name="Firo" date="2022-04-12 21:05:46" ] I'm not fully sold on Vrykolakas being town, but the fact that no one's come forward counterclaiming Cerise and we didn't have a second kill tonight does please me I don't think there's a scenario in which mafia gets a second NK and doesn't use it I'm not discounting that there's a chance of wifom, but the claim came pretty early and I don't mind it. for time being, the final tally of claims is as follows: CONTESTED: Firo: Silver Emerald: Shimmerwing, Starstream, Solstices Aquamarine: pasture, HeartlessDemon, Warriorgirl1234 Cream: Argathakul Cerulean: Lugia UNCONTESTED: Amber: Ambrose Cerise: Vrykolakas Olive: Potato Indigo: Varikset CLAIMS UNGIVEN: Blue, due to being dead. most likely wasn't Cerulean. might be my Silverbuddy, might've contested Cream. Beheaded-slot, due to being absent from the game. I suspect we'll never know. now, the obvious problem is that Blue and Beheaded-slot can only possibly account for two of the contested amulets that have only one person claiming them. it's also fairly obvious that scum cannot have telepathically known which amulets would be uncontested and claim them so early and effectively. [b]at least one of the Aquamarine/Emerald claimants is lying.[/b] there's a high chance that either of those two categories contain multiple scum, because, let's say, Scummystinker #1 says, "hey, I took Emerald and it's contested, let's both say we got contested Emerald, it's not like anyone would be able to prove us wrong", and Scummystinker #2 says "that's a wonderful idea, now I don't have to admit to having stolen Cerulean/Cream and invite unnecessary sus! and now if one of us gets lynched, the other one's probably going to get townread!" I'm 100% sure that scum's gone for disabling all 3 investigative abilities on purpose. I'm just shocked that Cerise went uncontested. it's possible that Behslot is red and indeed went without an amulet claim - that could explain it. [/quote] (Bolding mine, to emphasize) [quote name="Firo" date="2022-04-14 13:56:01" ] let's see, who has interacted suspiciously little with beheaded or not mentioned that slot at all? Solstices hasn't mentioned that name at all. hoo hoo? HeartlessDemon hasn't either. HOO HOO? Shimmerwing's ONLY mention of the beheaded slot prior to the modkill was the post I quoted above. HOO HOO?! Maithax didn't interact practically at all with the slot when they were both in the game. interestingly, Starstream poked Maithax about neutreading Beheaded specifically before then going on to put Beheaded in own neutlist. [/quote] Ambrose: [quote name="Ambrose" date="2022-04-16 06:20:55" ] [quote name="Ambrose" date="2022-04-11 22:54:56" ] Scumreads Most --- Least [Solstices | Argathakul | [s]Shimmerwing[/s] | Beheaded | HeartlessDemon ] I would bet on 2-3 of the scum being in this list. [/quote] I don't even feel like I need to do a deep-dive critical analysis of these guys at this point. (Not that there's much to look at). Shimmerwing's gameplay has been consistent, even if it hasn't been what I consider to be ideal pro-town behavior, so I am feeling slightly less apprehensive about them. My Argatha/Heartlessdemon theory still stands... [quote name="Ambrose" date="2022-04-11 22:42:34" ] [quote name="Varikset" date="2022-04-11 22:31:52" ] [snipped] [/quote] yeah my scumslip alarm bells rang loud and clear on this one. it came off as a 'remembering someone in mafchat said something about x player but then forgot that it wasn't also said in the thread' sort of deal which, combined with the completely random heartlessdemon placement (along with heartlessdemon's weird ping behavior) makes me feel like there is a chance that the intention was to (rather clumsily) try and casually throw a scum partner into the townread pile [/quote] [snip] [/quote] However, they did post this: [quote name="Ambrose" date="2022-04-17 11:47:09" ] Alright, so, that completely flips my scumread list on it's head. [/quote] Aaand who they voted for: Firo: [quote name="Firo" date="2022-04-09 12:04:06" ] Firo is voting for [s]Maithax Ghostbur ChaoticPotato[/s] Ghostbur Day 1 [/quote] [quote name="Firo" date="2022-04-12 14:55:47" ] Firo is voting for [s]pasture Starstream[/s] Warriorgirl1234 Day 2 [/quote] Ambrose: [quote name="Ambrose" date="2022-04-09 09:46:31" ] Ambrose is voting for Shimmerwing. Day 1 [/quote] [quote name="Ambrose" date="2022-04-12 13:55:06" ] Ambrose is voting for Solstices Day 2 [/quote] [quote name="Ambrose" date="2022-04-15 17:21:46" ] Ambrose is voting for Solstices Day 3 [/quote]

Okay, cool. It's a little hard to really get anything from that, seeing as how everything feels like it was flipped on its head, but it's good to have a list of info all in one place. I do think it's interesting that Ambrose connected Argathakul and HeartlessDemon, because I'd totally forgotten about that. Neither of them are reading very high on my "townread" list and I do feel like Argathakul has been playing clumsy scum. I also think it's funny that everyone was moved into nuetral, save for Shadow and pasture who were put as "high scum" and ms who was townread. It almost makes me want to trust Shadow and pasture if Arg flips red today. I mean I think only one of them at most would be town, and even then it's squinty, but what can I do? We should also keep in mind that Arg slapped Beheaded in nuetral, so we night just want to look at the original sus list and look at the original nuetral category. Maybe Arg put a scumbuddy in each pile (town, nuetral, and scum,) but I'm not too sure. Late night potato has trouble thinking sometimes.

Anyways I know this is supposed to be in response to the above post. Ahem.

It seems like HeartlessDemon is overlapping a lot in a lot of points. And I pointed out earlier how the interaction earlier on with Arg with the contested but only Arg claimed Cream claim, where Heartless asked who Argathakul had planned on protecting, had seemed a bit rehearsed. Forced.

Maybe Argathakul and HeartlessDemon are scumbuddies. Of course these sus lists are all speculation but seeing the overlap is a pretty good way of determining that something seems off about someone. And Heartless happens to be at the center.

Okay, I've talked a lot in this post. On the fly thinking really. My current town reads are Starstream and, to a little lesser extent, Vrykolakas. I'm not too comfortable with anyone else right now. Vrykolakas' above post definitely rocked them into a town lean position, plus the reminder that they had Cerise earlier on and didn't use it, with no counterclaims to that.

*bows* thank you Vry for putting all that together.

Less than 24 hours before day ends! Get your votes and amulet choices in before then >:)

I'm sorry for the absence my amulet was uncontested Silver, for the record going to do a couple of reads while I'm here @Starstream initial statement on d1 lynching was negative due to bad past experiences wasted no time to fluff it up with Firo initial reads Firo+Potato town/neutral, Shimmer+Maithax scum/neutral [quote name="Starstream" date="2022-04-09 11:56:26" ] I do understand why people like to lynch D1 but it just find it not really helpful in the long run because D1 doesn't really have that much info unless people are super interactive and have a lot to say. It is more of a baseline day to some degree in my opinion. [/quote] still highly disagree with this kind of mentality note: while Starstream pinged Beheaded for more discussion, she also was [url=https://www1.flightrising.com/forums/forga/3124633/22#post_50912479]speaking for Beheaded[/url], but Starstream is one of the people who interacted the most with that particular slot, from what I'm seeing [quote name="Starstream" date="2022-04-09 19:17:57" ] The title before the / is the main portion that I am labelled, so Neutral/Slight Town is strong neutral with some slight town vibes. Neutral/Slight Town: Firo, ChaoticPotato, Vrykolakas, Varikset Neutral: Maithax, HeartlessDemon, Beheaded, Blue Neutral/Slight Scum: Ghostbur, Shimmer, Ambrose Everyone else I really don't have any idea on at the moment. Most of these reads are based on my gut. [/quote] d1 readlist post d1 was the most worried about Solstices and Shimmer based on the wagon on Ghostbur generally, Starstream and Shimmerwing have some back and forth where both appear to be suspicious of one another [quote name="Starstream" date="2022-04-13 16:58:23" ] I guess I will give a new reads list: Slight town/neutral: Firo, Potatoe, Neutral/Slight Town: Ambrose, Sage Neutral: Vrykolakas Neutral/Slight Scum: Solstices Slight Scum: Beheaded, warriorgirl1234, HeartlessDemon, Shimmerwing Slight Scum/Strong Scum: Argathakul, Shadowlugia711 I am aware that there I have more players listed as scum than town, but that is just how I am feeling right. The other slight scum/strong scum, I feel like is between warrior, Heartless, and Shimmer. [/quote] readlist from later Starstream is the first person who [i]really[/i] started suspecting Argathakul as far as I can recall/see, though, so though I don't agree with everything she puts out there, I can't read her as ultrascum in most cases scum probably wouldn't start pointing out how suspicious another scum is being without at least one or two townies doing so first and a lynch being more or less inevitable and honestly, Starstream doesn't appear to be brazen enough to be an exception I do believe Argathakul is scum, still, and will put my vote there a person who I could believe to be suspecting Argathakul while still being scum is @HeartlessDemon, though a good part of that particular read is admittedly based on Heartless' somewhat off behavior at times (reading comprehension issues, fishing for amulet information, not yet speaking up in the thread after I pressed harder on that statement about Firo) [quote name="Argathakul" date="2022-04-11 18:14:05" ] [quote name="Ambrose" date="2022-04-11 17:54:49" ] @/argathakul reason for heartlessdemon in your townread pile? [/quote] I know this isn't super fact-based, but I agree with the conclusions Heartless has made thus far, including her opinion on you. She may have voted for me D1, but even there I can follow her train of thought, and understand how what I said could come off as scummy. I don't [i]know[/i] she's town, but she seems less scummy than most to me. [/quote] also, to a point, stuff like this though, on the other hand, this could just be Argathakul trying to make Heartless look suspicious by association I'll return with more when I have the energy, sorry again if you have questions, concerns or requests in the meantime, do tell