All recorded, with the assistance of two awesome people (thanks jr413 and Mnkn10!)
And that puts us at over 1250 responses which is also pretty awesome.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/dCYqlWw.png[/img]
Noc Eggs and Noc scrolls are at 10.7% and 1.7% respectively.
All recorded, with the assistance of two awesome people (thanks jr413 and Mnkn10!)
And that puts us at over 1250 responses which is also pretty awesome.
Noc Eggs and Noc scrolls are at 10.7% and 1.7% respectively.
Old stuff takes up a chunk though, sheesh. I get it's a whole lot of items, but this is where frustration comes from.
Old stuff takes up a chunk though, sheesh. I get it's a whole lot of items, but this is where frustration comes from.
@
sirspiderider
I noticed several people commenting something along the lines of "old familiars are supposed to drop at a decreased rate, but they drop twice as often as the new familiars". I wanted to point out that your category of "old familiars/apparel" encompasses 4 years' worth vs one year of "new familiars/apparel", so it makes sense that the "old" categories would have more drops.
Here is a different breakdown sorting the familiars and apparel by year:
http://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/2597406/14#post_36975496
It shows that the older the item is, the less frequently it is showing up. I know this is just one person's data, but I have opened 200+ chests so far and my numbers look similar.
I definitely want to contribute my chest count to your tracker, but I'll probably wait until the day after NotN to do it :)
@
sirspiderider
I noticed several people commenting something along the lines of "old familiars are supposed to drop at a decreased rate, but they drop twice as often as the new familiars". I wanted to point out that your category of "old familiars/apparel" encompasses 4 years' worth vs one year of "new familiars/apparel", so it makes sense that the "old" categories would have more drops.
Here is a different breakdown sorting the familiars and apparel by year:
http://www1.flightrising.com/forums/frd/2597406/14#post_36975496
It shows that the older the item is, the less frequently it is showing up. I know this is just one person's data, but I have opened 200+ chests so far and my numbers look similar.
I definitely want to contribute my chest count to your tracker, but I'll probably wait until the day after NotN to do it :)
Yeah, the data does show that individual old items are less common than individual new items, but there's just so many old items that you're still more likely to get any old item vs any new item.
I think both sides could be right, actually: old item drop rates may have actually decreased, but it doesn't seem to be enough to account for how many there are in general. Hopefully this can be resolved in the future by either a) reducing the drop rates further and more effectively, or b) eliminating old items from the drop pool again. Perhaps both, but that's more for the suggestions forum regardless.
This is my first NotN, so I can't speak for past years, but it seems that everyone's contributions to this little project is definitely helping people visualize what's going on. At the very least, it'll show that those with bad luck aren't just imagining it.
Yeah, the data does show that individual old items are less common than individual new items, but there's just so many old items that you're still more likely to get any old item vs any new item.
I think both sides could be right, actually: old item drop rates may have actually decreased, but it doesn't seem to be enough to account for how many there are in general. Hopefully this can be resolved in the future by either a) reducing the drop rates further and more effectively, or b) eliminating old items from the drop pool again. Perhaps both, but that's more for the suggestions forum regardless.
This is my first NotN, so I can't speak for past years, but it seems that everyone's contributions to this little project is definitely helping people visualize what's going on. At the very least, it'll show that those with bad luck aren't just imagining it.
Heya!
Wow, didn't expect to find my data here!
That's super cool. I can provide some more in-depth numbers. I run an excel sheet rather than google docs because I find it more comfortable to switch between the browser and excel. I can't upload the spreadsheet because I count my AH profits in the other tab whOOPS but I can provide the numbers!
I may have made mistakes here and there, but I count these by having a separate tab that counts each instance of a specific name in the first tab, where I just enter the content of every chest at the bottom as a new item. So at worst it didn't count an item somewhere.
Should also mention that I wasn't sure where to count the Nocturne Scrolls and Eggs, so I put them in their own category.
LONG POST INCOMING:
Year 2
Ectoplasmime 0
Jawlocker 1
Snarling Mimic 1
Year 2 Total: 2
Year 3
Conjurer's Cloak 2
Conjurer's Cobwebs 1
Conjurer's Hat 0
Conjurer's Herb Pouch 0
Conjurer's Staff 1
Animated Statue 0
Deadly Reflection 0
Ensorcelled Volume 0
Unlikely Alliance 2
Wooden Marionette 2
Living Sculpture 3
Magic Mirror 2
Opposing Forces 0
Painted Marionette 2
Spellbound Tome 0
Year 3 Total: 15
Year 4
Ghost Flame Candles 2
Ghost Flame Cloak 2
Ghost Flame Collar 2
Ghost Flame Headpiece 5
Ghost Flame Tail Jewel 1
Ghost Flame Tail Ribbon 0
Ghost Flame Wing Ribbon 2
Animated Armor 1
Axe Mimic 1
Ball-Jointed Bogsneak 0
Bogsneak Puppet 5
Calculating Candelabra 1
Crooked Hatchet 2
Crystal Carrier 2
Enchanted Armaments 4
Glowing Globe 3
Living Luminance 1
Masked Phantom 0
Orbiting Spirit 2
Serpentine Lamp 2
Smoldering Sconce 0
Sorcerous Arms 0
Spirit Armor 1
Veiled Vision 1
Vulpine Lamp 0
Year 4 Total: 40[
Year 5
Jolly Jester's Cap 1
Jolly Jester's Collar 3
Jolly Jester's Cape 0
Jolly Jester's Gloves 3
Jolly Jester's Stockings 2
Jolly Jester's Tail Bell 4
Jolly Jester's Wing Cover 5
Antique Chair 3
Colubrid Column 5
Curious Kettle 5
Inquisitive Shroud 4
Poltergeist Pile 3
Ravenous Cauldron 4
Serthis Support 6
Spidered Seat 1
Tick-Tock 2
Time Devourer 0
Transmuted Treasure 1
Valorous Cape 0
Tertiary Gene: Smirch 4
Vista: Jester 3
Vista: Gossamer Flame 2
Vista: Conjurer's Hat 2
Year 5 Items 63
Year 6
Haunting Amber Ghastcrown 5
Haunting Amber Pendants 4
Haunting Amber Grasp 4
Haunting Amber Forejewels 5
Haunting Amber Taildecor 4
Haunting Amber Clawrings 3
Haunting Amber Nightshroud 2
Blooming Hedgehide 5
Dirge Fiddlefiend 2
Four-Eyed Phylactery 3
Ghosthost Viola 3
Kyorinrin 4
Mischievous Magnifier 5
Overwatered Seedling 7
Pinpush Mirror Doll 5
Scroll Stealer 2
Tricky Telescope 4
Vista: Spectral Shroud 8
Year 6 Total: 75
Always
Unhatched Nocturne Egg 30
Breed Change: Nocturne 2
Total 32
Total Chests: 227
BONUS:
Y3 Apparel: 4
Y4 Apparel: 14
Y5 Apparel: 18
Y6 Apparel: 27
Total Apparel: 63
Y2 Familiars: 2
Y3 Familiars: 11
Y4 Familiars: 26
Y5 Familiars: 34
Y6 Familiars: 40
Total Familiars: 113
Y5 Vista: 5
Y6 Vista: 8
Total Vistas: 13
INB4 THE NUMBERS NOT ADDING UP
Heya!
Wow, didn't expect to find my data here!
That's super cool. I can provide some more in-depth numbers. I run an excel sheet rather than google docs because I find it more comfortable to switch between the browser and excel. I can't upload the spreadsheet because I count my AH profits in the other tab whOOPS but I can provide the numbers!
I may have made mistakes here and there, but I count these by having a separate tab that counts each instance of a specific name in the first tab, where I just enter the content of every chest at the bottom as a new item. So at worst it didn't count an item somewhere.
Should also mention that I wasn't sure where to count the Nocturne Scrolls and Eggs, so I put them in their own category.
LONG POST INCOMING:
Year 2
Ectoplasmime 0
Jawlocker 1
Snarling Mimic 1
Year 2 Total: 2
Year 3
Conjurer's Cloak 2
Conjurer's Cobwebs 1
Conjurer's Hat 0
Conjurer's Herb Pouch 0
Conjurer's Staff 1
Animated Statue 0
Deadly Reflection 0
Ensorcelled Volume 0
Unlikely Alliance 2
Wooden Marionette 2
Living Sculpture 3
Magic Mirror 2
Opposing Forces 0
Painted Marionette 2
Spellbound Tome 0
Year 3 Total: 15
Year 4
Ghost Flame Candles 2
Ghost Flame Cloak 2
Ghost Flame Collar 2
Ghost Flame Headpiece 5
Ghost Flame Tail Jewel 1
Ghost Flame Tail Ribbon 0
Ghost Flame Wing Ribbon 2
Animated Armor 1
Axe Mimic 1
Ball-Jointed Bogsneak 0
Bogsneak Puppet 5
Calculating Candelabra 1
Crooked Hatchet 2
Crystal Carrier 2
Enchanted Armaments 4
Glowing Globe 3
Living Luminance 1
Masked Phantom 0
Orbiting Spirit 2
Serpentine Lamp 2
Smoldering Sconce 0
Sorcerous Arms 0
Spirit Armor 1
Veiled Vision 1
Vulpine Lamp 0
Year 4 Total: 40[
Year 5
Jolly Jester's Cap 1
Jolly Jester's Collar 3
Jolly Jester's Cape 0
Jolly Jester's Gloves 3
Jolly Jester's Stockings 2
Jolly Jester's Tail Bell 4
Jolly Jester's Wing Cover 5
Antique Chair 3
Colubrid Column 5
Curious Kettle 5
Inquisitive Shroud 4
Poltergeist Pile 3
Ravenous Cauldron 4
Serthis Support 6
Spidered Seat 1
Tick-Tock 2
Time Devourer 0
Transmuted Treasure 1
Valorous Cape 0
Tertiary Gene: Smirch 4
Vista: Jester 3
Vista: Gossamer Flame 2
Vista: Conjurer's Hat 2
Year 5 Items 63
Year 6
Haunting Amber Ghastcrown 5
Haunting Amber Pendants 4
Haunting Amber Grasp 4
Haunting Amber Forejewels 5
Haunting Amber Taildecor 4
Haunting Amber Clawrings 3
Haunting Amber Nightshroud 2
Blooming Hedgehide 5
Dirge Fiddlefiend 2
Four-Eyed Phylactery 3
Ghosthost Viola 3
Kyorinrin 4
Mischievous Magnifier 5
Overwatered Seedling 7
Pinpush Mirror Doll 5
Scroll Stealer 2
Tricky Telescope 4
Vista: Spectral Shroud 8
Year 6 Total: 75
Always
Unhatched Nocturne Egg 30
Breed Change: Nocturne 2
Total 32
Total Chests: 227
BONUS:
Y3 Apparel: 4
Y4 Apparel: 14
Y5 Apparel: 18
Y6 Apparel: 27
Total Apparel: 63
Y2 Familiars: 2
Y3 Familiars: 11
Y4 Familiars: 26
Y5 Familiars: 34
Y6 Familiars: 40
Total Familiars: 113
Y5 Vista: 5
Y6 Vista: 8
Total Vistas: 13
INB4 THE NUMBERS NOT ADDING UP
@
Feuer - Recording by year is something I hadn't thought of, so it's interesting to see there's a pattern there, too. Thanks so much for the insights! At the end of the event I'll try to sort stuff and see how well my records match yours in terms of rarity by year.
@
Feuer - Recording by year is something I hadn't thought of, so it's interesting to see there's a pattern there, too. Thanks so much for the insights! At the end of the event I'll try to sort stuff and see how well my records match yours in terms of rarity by year.
@
sirspiderider (oof what a name)
You're welcome! I'm just happy my
pointless self-torture meticulous hoarding of data could actually end up being useful.
Looking at the data by year totally makes sense in my opinion, since the pool would otherwise be way too full with all the old items. What I also find interesting is that the Year 5 items seem to drop only marginally less often than Year 6. While I was recording, I actually had Year 5 ahead by one or two a few times. But now the gap is growing. I think their drop rates aren't too far apart in any case. Once you look at Year 4 the gap starts to become significant.
Of course what one might have to keep in mind is the total count of items introduced per year. Year 1 only had the three chest mimics. By sheer numbers, year 4 added the most items, but it definitely still shows up less in my data than year 5 and 6.
I think it might be best to look at this from different angles, but I imagine it would be a ton of work.
@
sirspiderider (oof what a name)
You're welcome! I'm just happy my
pointless self-torture meticulous hoarding of data could actually end up being useful.
Looking at the data by year totally makes sense in my opinion, since the pool would otherwise be way too full with all the old items. What I also find interesting is that the Year 5 items seem to drop only marginally less often than Year 6. While I was recording, I actually had Year 5 ahead by one or two a few times. But now the gap is growing. I think their drop rates aren't too far apart in any case. Once you look at Year 4 the gap starts to become significant.
Of course what one might have to keep in mind is the total count of items introduced per year. Year 1 only had the three chest mimics. By sheer numbers, year 4 added the most items, but it definitely still shows up less in my data than year 5 and 6.
I think it might be best to look at this from different angles, but I imagine it would be a ton of work.
@Feuer (oops)
I'm thinking I could take the entire item drop pool and calculate what percentage of the items come from each year and compare them to the percentages of the items that dropped by year. Say, Year 2 items are 10% of all items, but only drop 8% of the time, or something like that. I'd probably also separate eggs and scrolls for that as well. At that point we'll have a better idea of whether drop rates tend to match actual item composition.
Good timing, 'cause there's 1300 (okay 1301 but whatever) responses:
[img]https://i.imgur.com/K2arj7B.png[/img]
Even though there's only one item in the "unhatched egg" category, it makes up about 10% of all drops - so I wouldn't be surprised if this is the case elsewhere.
@
Feuer (oops)
I'm thinking I could take the entire item drop pool and calculate what percentage of the items come from each year and compare them to the percentages of the items that dropped by year. Say, Year 2 items are 10% of all items, but only drop 8% of the time, or something like that. I'd probably also separate eggs and scrolls for that as well. At that point we'll have a better idea of whether drop rates tend to match actual item composition.
Good timing, 'cause there's 1300 (okay 1301 but whatever) responses:
Even though there's only one item in the "unhatched egg" category, it makes up about 10% of all drops - so I wouldn't be surprised if this is the case elsewhere.
I have a mind like a sieve, so specifics are a little rough for me when I'm not recording what I receive. I know that yesterday I opened 7 chests. Three vistas (one of which I'm using :D), one Smirch, and the rest were a combination of familiars and apparel.
Before that, I opened 20-some chests. LOTS of familiars. One Smirch, no vistas or eggs. Some apparel - Haunting Amber pieces. I have yet to receive an egg, but there's still time. :)
I hope this sort of helps in some way. Never thought to record my openings :(.
I have a mind like a sieve, so specifics are a little rough for me when I'm not recording what I receive. I know that yesterday I opened 7 chests. Three vistas (one of which I'm using :D), one Smirch, and the rest were a combination of familiars and apparel.
Before that, I opened 20-some chests. LOTS of familiars. One Smirch, no vistas or eggs. Some apparel - Haunting Amber pieces. I have yet to receive an egg, but there's still time. :)
I hope this sort of helps in some way. Never thought to record my openings :(.
This is an awesome thread! I've been keeping track of what I get too, so I'll add my data in at the end as well!
This is an awesome thread! I've been keeping track of what I get too, so I'll add my data in at the end as well!
