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TOPIC | this isn't fun anymore
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@Sorel @Kekira: Having options for getting the chests doesn't invalidate my point -- if anything, it makes it stronger. I don't have to open the chests if I can literally pay someone to do that for me -- i.e, the price of opening 2k+ chests and selling the scroll is what you can pay to obtain a scroll. There is no "intended" way to get an item if you have options to get an item. That's what playstyles are for. You want dragon captalism? there's a playstyle for that. It's called making treasure and buying items of value.
@Sorel @Kekira: Having options for getting the chests doesn't invalidate my point -- if anything, it makes it stronger. I don't have to open the chests if I can literally pay someone to do that for me -- i.e, the price of opening 2k+ chests and selling the scroll is what you can pay to obtain a scroll. There is no "intended" way to get an item if you have options to get an item. That's what playstyles are for. You want dragon captalism? there's a playstyle for that. It's called making treasure and buying items of value.
I just want to point out the prices on the elemental bears- they're down to like 10k tr each because of the influx of bears from this event >.>
I just want to point out the prices on the elemental bears- they're down to like 10k tr each because of the influx of bears from this event >.>
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@Pokemon

Yeah, exactly this. If someone wants a scroll, but doesn't want to take a chance with the chests, then they can just sell their chests and buy one that way. Chests are currently selling for 3790, while scrolls are selling for 2445000. That means you can get one by selling 645 chests. That's an amount that someone could grind for if they have level 25 dragons and a good bit of time. I mean, there are people who have already opened 1,000+ chests and we're only a few days in, so it can be done.

And it's not like scrolls are bound to your account like your progenitors are. Now that would stink. :/
@Pokemon

Yeah, exactly this. If someone wants a scroll, but doesn't want to take a chance with the chests, then they can just sell their chests and buy one that way. Chests are currently selling for 3790, while scrolls are selling for 2445000. That means you can get one by selling 645 chests. That's an amount that someone could grind for if they have level 25 dragons and a good bit of time. I mean, there are people who have already opened 1,000+ chests and we're only a few days in, so it can be done.

And it's not like scrolls are bound to your account like your progenitors are. Now that would stink. :/
I have to admit, albeit apologetically, that I got 9 eggs and a breed change scroll from chests in this thing. BUT. It took me selling EVERYTHING I had, even some crystal dragons and limited edition familiars (Like Ice Sprite) to afford the 800+ chests it took to get all of that. Although, even given the number of chests, it seems I was a lucky one. Today, I used all of my Gathering turns for digging, and got 3 chests. Yesterday, I got 2. I HAVE noticed, both in Digging and Scavenging, that no matter my level (25 in both), I get the same junk I always have, no one item being more common than others. Just crap. I completely understand those less lucky than I being irritated at how certain systems seem borked. Even I, with all of my luck, felt desolate and to be honest pretty miserable so far through this event. But, chin up! I'd put a speech about luck here, but here is my post about chinning up. If you feel depressed and unlucky, read this! [url]http://www.flightrising.com/main.php?p=mb&board=drs&id=1287130&page=1[/url] This event isn't all bad, though! I got this beauty out of it, after all!~: [url=http://flightrising.com/main.php?dragon=4991558] [img]http://flightrising.com/rendern/350/49916/4991558_350.png[/img] [/url]
I have to admit, albeit apologetically, that I got 9 eggs and a breed change scroll from chests in this thing. BUT. It took me selling EVERYTHING I had, even some crystal dragons and limited edition familiars (Like Ice Sprite) to afford the 800+ chests it took to get all of that. Although, even given the number of chests, it seems I was a lucky one.

Today, I used all of my Gathering turns for digging, and got 3 chests. Yesterday, I got 2. I HAVE noticed, both in Digging and Scavenging, that no matter my level (25 in both), I get the same junk I always have, no one item being more common than others. Just crap.

I completely understand those less lucky than I being irritated at how certain systems seem borked. Even I, with all of my luck, felt desolate and to be honest pretty miserable so far through this event.

But, chin up! I'd put a speech about luck here, but here is my post about chinning up. If you feel depressed and unlucky, read this!

http://www.flightrising.com/main.php?p=mb&board=drs&id=1287130&page=1

This event isn't all bad, though! I got this beauty out of it, after all!~:
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Just doing a bit of Light alchemy...
@AboveClouds

Earlier in this exact thread we had someone telling everyone to sell their chests and buy holiday items since chests were selling for 4K a piece. In one day they have dropped to 3790t while scrolls have stayed the same price. By the time I grind 652 chests ( at a rate of about 65 per 1hr and 30min) the price of chests will have dropped so that i'll need to sell more than 652 for a scroll.

@Pokemon
Heck if were all going to have to get our holiday items by just selling chests why not just make the chests themselves a currency and trade them in at a festival shop the way we've been doing it for all the other festivals. Cut out the middle man and save us all some time eh? Sounds like a plan to me.
@AboveClouds

Earlier in this exact thread we had someone telling everyone to sell their chests and buy holiday items since chests were selling for 4K a piece. In one day they have dropped to 3790t while scrolls have stayed the same price. By the time I grind 652 chests ( at a rate of about 65 per 1hr and 30min) the price of chests will have dropped so that i'll need to sell more than 652 for a scroll.

@Pokemon
Heck if were all going to have to get our holiday items by just selling chests why not just make the chests themselves a currency and trade them in at a festival shop the way we've been doing it for all the other festivals. Cut out the middle man and save us all some time eh? Sounds like a plan to me.
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:D Yeah, I'm going to grind and OPEN all my chests... #SELLNOTHING
:D Yeah, I'm going to grind and OPEN all my chests... #SELLNOTHING
I'm really only bummed about the timing of this event, going right on during the holidays. Every single flight holiday that I've been a part of this year has also fallen on a week where I've had to be out of town, so I only get something like 1-3 days to play, and only 1-2 hours on those days to play. It's much the same for this event. The time I have spent has been mostly during downtime or slow times, and it's made grinding more tedious than usual.

I don't particularly like grinding anyway, but it is literally the only way I can manage to feed my dragons XD

It's just not fun to feel like you are missing out.
I'm really only bummed about the timing of this event, going right on during the holidays. Every single flight holiday that I've been a part of this year has also fallen on a week where I've had to be out of town, so I only get something like 1-3 days to play, and only 1-2 hours on those days to play. It's much the same for this event. The time I have spent has been mostly during downtime or slow times, and it's made grinding more tedious than usual.

I don't particularly like grinding anyway, but it is literally the only way I can manage to feed my dragons XD

It's just not fun to feel like you are missing out.
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@Sorel
Well, it stands to reason that the price for the chests will drop as they become more common. However, the same thing could be said about the scrolls too. More scrolls will become available as people continue to open the chests, so their price might drop a bit too.

But, yeah, now would be the time to grind if you wanna go that route.

(As an aside, your hourly estimate seems pretty low to me. The mimics in the higher regions have a 100% drop rate, so I've been getting, like, 20 chests in 10 minutes.)

And to your second point: I actually wish we didn't have the chests at all. I think it would be a better system to just have the monsters in the Coli straight-up drop the breed change scrolls/eggs/buttplants/whatever.
@Sorel
Well, it stands to reason that the price for the chests will drop as they become more common. However, the same thing could be said about the scrolls too. More scrolls will become available as people continue to open the chests, so their price might drop a bit too.

But, yeah, now would be the time to grind if you wanna go that route.

(As an aside, your hourly estimate seems pretty low to me. The mimics in the higher regions have a 100% drop rate, so I've been getting, like, 20 chests in 10 minutes.)

And to your second point: I actually wish we didn't have the chests at all. I think it would be a better system to just have the monsters in the Coli straight-up drop the breed change scrolls/eggs/buttplants/whatever.
[quote name="Dysnomia" date="2014-12-24 14:59:45"][quote name="venjamin" date="2014-12-24 03:32:52"]Maybe it's just me, because I'm new and don't know much about anything, but this entire event is based on luck, right? It seems to me that a majority of people don't understand the concept of the gambler's fallacy. So, let's just jump on the Wiki train for a second. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy It sucks, but no one is entitled anything after any number of chests. I get that opening chests aren't fun if you don't get anything... but that's kind of how this whole thing is supposed to work. I mean, think of all the people that play the lottery every day and -don't win.-[/quote] Ahah. [i]Hahaha[/i]. Honey, you used the wrong analogy... [i]Hi, I'm a casual Lottery player[/i]. And [i]you're[/i] making the mistake of presuming that, in the Lotto, there are only "Jackpots" and "losers." If that were the case, [i]nobody would play[/i]. There has to be a [i]hook[/i] to keep people interested, and it has to be common enough to keep them coming back to reinvest that time/money. Which is why there [i]aren't[/i] just Jackpots and losers. There are $1, $2, $5, $10, $20, $50, $100, $1000, $3000, etc "little winners" that are common enough to keep people [i]invested in playing the game[/i]. And, to be honest, if I had$100 in scratch-off Lottery tickets, and 100 Strange Chests... [i]the stack of Lottery tickets has better odds of giving me something worthwhile[/i]. Yeah, I would end up with a stack of losing tickets... but the odds are actually pretty good - not [i]guaranteed[/i], just [i]high[/i] - that I would [i]also[/i] walk away with [i]at least[/i] $100. Meanwhile, opening 100 Strange Chests is virtually [i]guaranteed[/i] to give you nothing but a smattering of useless trinkets and 100 food items. Hell, opening [i]500[/i] chests is virtually guaranteed to give you nothing but junk and food. Those things aren't [i]hooks[/i]. They don't keep people [i]invested[/i]. They just make this whole thing a lot more frustrating than it has to be - like scratching off 100 tickets and only winning $5. And then doing that over, and over, and over again. What would good hooks be? [i]Familiars[/i] would be hooks (of the $10-100 variety, to draw the parallel.) [i]Eggs[/i] would be hooks (of the $1000-3000 sort.) [i]Scrolls[/i] should be the Jackpots. And the hooks need to be [i]frequent[/i] enough to [i]keep you[/i] hooked - otherwise, [i]what's the bloody point[/i]? TL;DR Comparing this to the Lottery is a bad joke. At least the Lottery gives players an incentive to [i]keep playing it[/i].[/quote] Eh, I think you're wrong that it's a bad joke. There is no 'incentive' to play the lottery other than the gambler's fallacy. Because people who fall for it can honestly win [i]nothing ever[/i] and still play. As an aside, [i]scratchers[/i] aren't the lottery, and adjusting my statement to change what I intend isn't the correct way to go about proving me wrong. Scratchers have a predetermined quantity until someone wins. There is NO randomness involved at all, whereas the lottery ( where the balls bounce around and get sucked into a tube, or more recently, RNG produces a genuinely random number ) is completely outside of a person's control. That being said, you have literally [i]embodied[/i] the Gambler's Fallacy. The chances of you opening a chest and getting food vs bear vs egg vs scroll is the same [i]every single time.[/i] Your odds NEVER truly increase. You can walk into a Casino with 50 dollars and leave 30 minutes later having won nothing but change here and there. Your concept of a hook is incorrect. In a truly neutral, truly random environment, your odds should [i]never[/i] increase or decrease, and we have no reason to believe that there's a fluctuation here. So, your odds of getting an egg / scroll / familiar remain constant. Here, the "hook" as you say, is psychological. We see all the people that have won, and are driven by the gambler's fallacy to believe that because we haven't won yet, we're BOUND to win eventually. That expectation creates a cognitive dissonance when you [i]don't[/i] win what you want, creating this frustration or lack of fun. It creates a Skinner box - where we keep doing the same thing over and over and hope for different results. Our Skinner Box has windows, and so we see other people winning. Keeping with my original comparison, people will buy lottery tickets every day / night, and never win anything - but continue to do so because if they've lost this much, eventually they'll win! TL;DR - This is nothing more than a Skinner box. But the Skinner box and the Gambler's Fallacy are working together to piss people off. The issue isn't the event, the issue is people [i]noticing.[/i]
Dysnomia wrote on 2014-12-24 14:59:45:
venjamin wrote on 2014-12-24 03:32:52:
Maybe it's just me, because I'm new and don't know much about anything, but this entire event is based on luck, right?

It seems to me that a majority of people don't understand the concept of the gambler's fallacy. So, let's just jump on the Wiki train for a second.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

It sucks, but no one is entitled anything after any number of chests. I get that opening chests aren't fun if you don't get anything... but that's kind of how this whole thing is supposed to work.

I mean, think of all the people that play the lottery every day and -don't win.-
Ahah. Hahaha. Honey, you used the wrong analogy... Hi, I'm a casual Lottery player.

And you're making the mistake of presuming that, in the Lotto, there are only "Jackpots" and "losers."

If that were the case, nobody would play. There has to be a hook to keep people interested, and it has to be common enough to keep them coming back to reinvest that time/money.

Which is why there aren't just Jackpots and losers. There are $1, $2, $5, $10, $20, $50, $100, $1000, $3000, etc "little winners" that are common enough to keep people invested in playing the game.

And, to be honest, if I had$100 in scratch-off Lottery tickets, and 100 Strange Chests... the stack of Lottery tickets has better odds of giving me something worthwhile. Yeah, I would end up with a stack of losing tickets... but the odds are actually pretty good - not guaranteed, just high - that I would also walk away with at least $100.

Meanwhile, opening 100 Strange Chests is virtually guaranteed to give you nothing but a smattering of useless trinkets and 100 food items. Hell, opening 500 chests is virtually guaranteed to give you nothing but junk and food. Those things aren't hooks. They don't keep people invested. They just make this whole thing a lot more frustrating than it has to be - like scratching off 100 tickets and only winning $5. And then doing that over, and over, and over again.

What would good hooks be? Familiars would be hooks (of the $10-100 variety, to draw the parallel.) Eggs would be hooks (of the $1000-3000 sort.) Scrolls should be the Jackpots. And the hooks need to be frequent enough to keep you hooked - otherwise, what's the bloody point?

TL;DR Comparing this to the Lottery is a bad joke. At least the Lottery gives players an incentive to keep playing it.



Eh, I think you're wrong that it's a bad joke. There is no 'incentive' to play the lottery other than the gambler's fallacy. Because people who fall for it can honestly win nothing ever and still play. As an aside, scratchers aren't the lottery, and adjusting my statement to change what I intend isn't the correct way to go about proving me wrong.

Scratchers have a predetermined quantity until someone wins. There is NO randomness involved at all, whereas the lottery ( where the balls bounce around and get sucked into a tube, or more recently, RNG produces a genuinely random number ) is completely outside of a person's control.

That being said, you have literally embodied the Gambler's Fallacy.

The chances of you opening a chest and getting food vs bear vs egg vs scroll is the same every single time. Your odds NEVER truly increase. You can walk into a Casino with 50 dollars and leave 30 minutes later having won nothing but change here and there.

Your concept of a hook is incorrect. In a truly neutral, truly random environment, your odds should never increase or decrease, and we have no reason to believe that there's a fluctuation here. So, your odds of getting an egg / scroll / familiar remain constant.

Here, the "hook" as you say, is psychological. We see all the people that have won, and are driven by the gambler's fallacy to believe that because we haven't won yet, we're BOUND to win eventually. That expectation creates a cognitive dissonance when you don't win what you want, creating this frustration or lack of fun.

It creates a Skinner box - where we keep doing the same thing over and over and hope for different results. Our Skinner Box has windows, and so we see other people winning.

Keeping with my original comparison, people will buy lottery tickets every day / night, and never win anything - but continue to do so because if they've lost this much, eventually they'll win!

TL;DR - This is nothing more than a Skinner box. But the Skinner box and the Gambler's Fallacy are working together to **** people off. The issue isn't the event, the issue is people noticing.
@venjamin
Very well put.

@AboveClouds
I would prefer this too. Having to go and click through hundreds of chests is actually quite time-consuming--time that we COULD be putting to to doing more grinding and potentially earning more rewards. I also think people would be a lot less upset about usually getting nothing but "junk" this way.

Think about it: when we grind the coli, usually get nothing but a single food item for our trouble, if that. Some people have complained about this in the past, but largely people are content to accept that this is the way it is. Familiar or treasure or apparel or egg drops are much, much rarer, and people are generally much more ready to accept that this is The Way Things Are.

However, treasure chests have come associated with much larger yields on this site. Venue crates will give you 2000 treasure and a rare skin or accent; even rusted chests will usually give you some kind of apparel item and always a little bit of treasure. So to suddenly have chests popping up commonly that usually yield only a food item and only sometimes a rare item worth having is, when we stop to analyze it, while thematically on-the-nose with what a mimic should do, offensive to our psychological perception of what a treasure chest should yield. I mean, it's there in the name; it makes sense in a way that people are feeling entitled and affronted to this seemingly backwards phenomena.

I still personally enjoy this event and think most of the people complaining are coming at this with the wrong perception, but at least after having stopped to think about it too, I can understand where it is they're coming from.
@venjamin
Very well put.

@AboveClouds
I would prefer this too. Having to go and click through hundreds of chests is actually quite time-consuming--time that we COULD be putting to to doing more grinding and potentially earning more rewards. I also think people would be a lot less upset about usually getting nothing but "junk" this way.

Think about it: when we grind the coli, usually get nothing but a single food item for our trouble, if that. Some people have complained about this in the past, but largely people are content to accept that this is the way it is. Familiar or treasure or apparel or egg drops are much, much rarer, and people are generally much more ready to accept that this is The Way Things Are.

However, treasure chests have come associated with much larger yields on this site. Venue crates will give you 2000 treasure and a rare skin or accent; even rusted chests will usually give you some kind of apparel item and always a little bit of treasure. So to suddenly have chests popping up commonly that usually yield only a food item and only sometimes a rare item worth having is, when we stop to analyze it, while thematically on-the-nose with what a mimic should do, offensive to our psychological perception of what a treasure chest should yield. I mean, it's there in the name; it makes sense in a way that people are feeling entitled and affronted to this seemingly backwards phenomena.

I still personally enjoy this event and think most of the people complaining are coming at this with the wrong perception, but at least after having stopped to think about it too, I can understand where it is they're coming from.
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