How rare are twins | Flight Rising Discussion

I want to know some math on how rare it is for a color combo (prim/sec/tert) to be picked for a g1 in comparison to other colors, and the chances for that combo to be picked again.
Of course for fun's sake it'd be cool to see this for doubles, too. But the main assumption is xyz's.
There's also things like "the chances the exact twins end up on the same account" but that's not something I'd think would be easy to figure out and depends on the combo.
Remember, this is exact twins, not nearby twins or inverted twins (colors swap). So if one was cerulean/abyss/wine, the second dragon would also be cerulean/abyss/wine.

I've kinda run into dismissive chatter about my exact twins from someone who collects them outright. I guess I want hard math on the matter.
Do I expect them to be as rare as a triple? No. But I figure that, while it happens, it's not as common as I was lead to believe since you're basically running the color roulette a second time, and dragons tend to not look samey in mass-hatches, that's for sure.

GaleGecko

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May 03, 2024 12:08:15

I want to know some math on how rare it is for a color combo (prim/sec/tert) to be picked for a g1 in comparison to other colors, and the chances for that combo to be picked again.
Of course for fun's sake it'd be cool to see this for doubles, too. But the main assumption is xyz's.
There's also things like "the chances the exact twins end up on the same account" but that's not something I'd think would be easy to figure out and depends on the combo.
Remember, this is exact twins, not nearby twins or inverted twins (colors swap). So if one was cerulean/abyss/wine, the second dragon would also be cerulean/abyss/wine.

I've kinda run into dismissive chatter about my exact twins from someone who collects them outright. I guess I want hard math on the matter.
Do I expect them to be as rare as a triple? No. But I figure that, while it happens, it's not as common as I was lead to believe since you're basically running the color roulette a second time, and dragons tend to not look samey in mass-hatches, that's for sure.

If you ping me, please remember to include capitals for each word or I won't get your ping! It's GaleGecko, not galegecko.

It would be as rare as a triple I think? Maybe more. Because what combo the first hatchling gets doesn't matter, but the second has to match exactly. As long as every color is given the same chances of showing up when you hatch an egg, there is no difference between the exact odds of rolling specifically a moss/fuchsia/gold than an obsidian/obsidian/obsidian.

Realcottoncat

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May 03, 2024 12:21:02

It would be as rare as a triple I think? Maybe more. Because what combo the first hatchling gets doesn't matter, but the second has to match exactly. As long as every color is given the same chances of showing up when you hatch an egg, there is no difference between the exact odds of rolling specifically a moss/fuchsia/gold than an obsidian/obsidian/obsidian.

I will put something here eventually.

Last edited on May 03, 2024 12:23:02 by Realcottoncat

It's the same odds as getting a specific triple, which is much rarer than just getting any triple.

edit: though the odds do improve if you're going round the whole site looking for the twin, compared to just hatching two eggs and asking if they're twins - at that point we need to pick a specific timeframe and find out how many total eggs are hatched in that time.

Sciencing

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May 03, 2024 12:23:17

It's the same odds as getting a specific triple, which is much rarer than just getting any triple.

edit: though the odds do improve if you're going round the whole site looking for the twin, compared to just hatching two eggs and asking if they're twins - at that point we need to pick a specific timeframe and find out how many total eggs are hatched in that time.

Last edited on May 03, 2024 12:24:37 by Sciencing

[quote name="Sciencing" date="2024-05-03 12:23:17" ] It's the same odds as getting a specific triple, which is much rarer than just getting any triple. edit: though the odds do improve if you're going round the whole site looking for the twin, compared to just hatching two eggs and asking if they're twins - at that point we need to pick a specific timeframe and find out how many total eggs are hatched in that time. [/quote] Thanks to both of you. My pair of twins wasn't necessarily a specific hunt so much as me trying to find a specific combo that was adjacent to the twins' color combo. They just happened to be inside of my search. One had been for sale for 3 months. The other had only just been put on (think he was 2 weeks old), but I recognized they were the same colors and bought them. I ended up landing on a different combo for that search in the end ([url=https://www1.flightrising.com/dragon/51453570]This girl actually[/url]), and so have removed the range from my favorites list at this point. My search was for the sake of a skin, not to find twins in a range I liked. [url=https://www1.flightrising.com/dragon/84398178][img]https://www1.flightrising.com/rendern/350/843982/84398178_350.png[/img][/url][url=https://www1.flightrising.com/dragon/82961089][img]https://www1.flightrising.com/rendern/350/829611/82961089_350.png[/img][/url] Here's the twins in question, btw! Dirt/Avocado/Latte. Honestly, this gives me a lot of closure as far as their rarity. I love my pair to bits and wouldn't have sold them or something if they were common, but I kinda just needed to know, y'know?

GaleGecko

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May 03, 2024 12:47:26

Sciencing wrote on 2024-05-03 12:23:17:

It's the same odds as getting a specific triple, which is much rarer than just getting any triple.

edit: though the odds do improve if you're going round the whole site looking for the twin, compared to just hatching two eggs and asking if they're twins - at that point we need to pick a specific timeframe and find out how many total eggs are hatched in that time.

Thanks to both of you. My pair of twins wasn't necessarily a specific hunt so much as me trying to find a specific combo that was adjacent to the twins' color combo. They just happened to be inside of my search. One had been for sale for 3 months. The other had only just been put on (think he was 2 weeks old), but I recognized they were the same colors and bought them. I ended up landing on a different combo for that search in the end (This girl actually), and so have removed the range from my favorites list at this point. My search was for the sake of a skin, not to find twins in a range I liked.

Here's the twins in question, btw! Dirt/Avocado/Latte.

Honestly, this gives me a lot of closure as far as their rarity. I love my pair to bits and wouldn't have sold them or something if they were common, but I kinda just needed to know, y'know?

If you ping me, please remember to include capitals for each word or I won't get your ping! It's GaleGecko, not galegecko.

If I'm remembering math correctly, the probability of rolling one specific color combo (which is what you'd need for a perfect twin) is 1/5545233.

Vyraxhaalas

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May 03, 2024 12:53:18

If I'm remembering math correctly, the probability of rolling one specific color combo (which is what you'd need for a perfect twin) is 1/5545233.

Last edited on May 03, 2024 12:53:40 by Vyraxhaalas

To my understanding, all colors are given an equal probability, with some caveats. However, this can have different answers depending on exactly how you ask the question.

The chances that [a random egg matches a specific G1] is (1/177)^3 = about 1.8 * 10^-7 = 1/5,545,233.

The chances that [a random egg matches ANY existing G1] is...I don't have enough info to calculate this, but it's MUCH more likely than the above. The actual math is not difficult, but the question is, how many "different" G1s are there? I think you'd have to brute-force the search for every possible color combo + G1.

The chances that [a random egg matches any existing G1 in a specific person's lair] would be much easier to calculate because it's much easier to scan a single lair and figure out how many different G1 color combos they have. If someone has, say, 50 different-combo G1s, then it's as simple as 50*(1/177)^3 = about 9 * 10^-6 = about 1/110,904.

(If they have exactly 50 G1s but that's including a pair of twins, you would only do 49 in the equation!)

The chances that [from a batch of random eggs, at least 2 of them have identical colors] depends of course on the number of eggs. I mean, if you hatched 2 eggs it would be the 1/5.5 million number above, but if you hatched (1+177^3) eggs then it would be guaranteed. How about a more realistic number of eggs?

If you hatch 15 random eggs, the chances that any specific baby matches another specific baby in the set is the same 1/5.5mil. But the chance that any baby matches any other in the set is…I’m going to be honest I can’t figure out the general case here so I’m putting it into WolframAlpha. The answer for 15 eggs is 1/52,812.

Here’s what I put in WolframAlpha: ((x-1)(x-2)(x-3)(x-4)(x-5)(x-6)(x-7)(x-8)(x-9)(x-10)(x-11)(x-12)(x-13)(x-14))/x^14 if x=5545233

Another way to write it would be (x/x)*([x-1]/x)*([x-2]/x)*([x-3]/x)*([x-4]/x)*([x-5]/x)*([x-6]/x)*([x-7]/x)*([x-8]/x)*([x-9]/x)*([x-10]/x)*([x-11]/x)*([x-12]/x)*([x-13]/x)*([x-14]/x) if x=5545233 _{and in this case the (x/x) is a factor of 1, which you can ignore because multiplication by 1.}

WolframAlpha gives a number that is about 0.99999, but what does this mean? I asked it not for the chance of some babies matching, but for the chance that NONE of them match. Do 1-[that] and get about 1.89 * 10^5 = about 1/52,812.

The x is used only to make it easier to type. In this case, “x” is specifically 5545233 because that’s the number of different possible color outcomes. It is not a changing variable; I just didn’t want to type that ugly number a million times. It represents that the chance that the second baby doesn’t match the first is (5545232/5545233); the chance that the third matches neither the first nor the second is (5545231/5545233); the chance that the fourth matches none of the first three is (5545230/5545233); and so on.

Okay, that’s 15 egg, but what if I hatch 10 eggs, or 20? You’d use the same basic form of math input, but only going to 10 or 20 or whatever number. Like, for 10 it would be “ ((x-1)(x-2)(x-3)(x-4)(x-5)(x-6)(x-7)(x-8)(x-9))/x^9 if x=5545233 “ which gives you another about 0.99999, then do 1-[that] = about 8.1*10^-6 = about 1/123,227.

There is almost certainly a more elegant way to do that, but my brain is breaking right now, and when I try to look up math cases similar to this, I’m getting results of people discussing tarot on Reddit. RIP

The caveats are: at some point there was a color wheel expansion, so dragons hatched prior to that date are picking from a smaller selection of colors, unless they got scatterscrolled later. I'm also pretty sure that progens are still restricted to the smaller color selection, though they can also be scatterscrolled to the entire range. This doesn't affect random eggs hatched nowadays because they are not subject to the restrictions of un-scatterscrolled old dragons or un-scatterscrolled progens, but it does create discrepancies in frequency of colors that already exist (or exist on progens).

There are other ways that you could ask a similar question, but I think this should pretty much cover the spirit of it.

dawnsilence

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May 03, 2024 14:26:30

To my understanding, all colors are given an equal probability, with some caveats. However, this can have different answers depending on exactly how you ask the question.

The chances that [a random egg matches a specific G1] is (1/177)^3 = about 1.8 * 10^-7 = 1/5,545,233.

The chances that [a random egg matches ANY existing G1] is...I don't have enough info to calculate this, but it's MUCH more likely than the above. The actual math is not difficult, but the question is, how many "different" G1s are there? I think you'd have to brute-force the search for every possible color combo + G1.

The chances that [a random egg matches any existing G1 in a specific person's lair] would be much easier to calculate because it's much easier to scan a single lair and figure out how many different G1 color combos they have. If someone has, say, 50 different-combo G1s, then it's as simple as 50*(1/177)^3 = about 9 * 10^-6 = about 1/110,904.

(If they have exactly 50 G1s but that's including a pair of twins, you would only do 49 in the equation!)

The chances that [from a batch of random eggs, at least 2 of them have identical colors] depends of course on the number of eggs. I mean, if you hatched 2 eggs it would be the 1/5.5 million number above, but if you hatched (1+177^3) eggs then it would be guaranteed. How about a more realistic number of eggs?

If you hatch 15 random eggs, the chances that any specific baby matches another specific baby in the set is the same 1/5.5mil. But the chance that any baby matches any other in the set is…I’m going to be honest I can’t figure out the general case here so I’m putting it into WolframAlpha. The answer for 15 eggs is 1/52,812.

Here’s what I put in WolframAlpha: ((x-1)(x-2)(x-3)(x-4)(x-5)(x-6)(x-7)(x-8)(x-9)(x-10)(x-11)(x-12)(x-13)(x-14))/x^14 if x=5545233

Another way to write it would be (x/x)*([x-1]/x)*([x-2]/x)*([x-3]/x)*([x-4]/x)*([x-5]/x)*([x-6]/x)*([x-7]/x)*([x-8]/x)*([x-9]/x)*([x-10]/x)*([x-11]/x)*([x-12]/x)*([x-13]/x)*([x-14]/x) if x=5545233 _{and in this case the (x/x) is a factor of 1, which you can ignore because multiplication by 1.}

WolframAlpha gives a number that is about 0.99999, but what does this mean? I asked it not for the chance of some babies matching, but for the chance that NONE of them match. Do 1-[that] and get about 1.89 * 10^5 = about 1/52,812.

The x is used only to make it easier to type. In this case, “x” is specifically 5545233 because that’s the number of different possible color outcomes. It is not a changing variable; I just didn’t want to type that ugly number a million times. It represents that the chance that the second baby doesn’t match the first is (5545232/5545233); the chance that the third matches neither the first nor the second is (5545231/5545233); the chance that the fourth matches none of the first three is (5545230/5545233); and so on.

Okay, that’s 15 egg, but what if I hatch 10 eggs, or 20? You’d use the same basic form of math input, but only going to 10 or 20 or whatever number. Like, for 10 it would be “ ((x-1)(x-2)(x-3)(x-4)(x-5)(x-6)(x-7)(x-8)(x-9))/x^9 if x=5545233 “ which gives you another about 0.99999, then do 1-[that] = about 8.1*10^-6 = about 1/123,227.

There is almost certainly a more elegant way to do that, but my brain is breaking right now, and when I try to look up math cases similar to this, I’m getting results of people discussing tarot on Reddit. RIP

The caveats are: at some point there was a color wheel expansion, so dragons hatched prior to that date are picking from a smaller selection of colors, unless they got scatterscrolled later. I'm also pretty sure that progens are still restricted to the smaller color selection, though they can also be scatterscrolled to the entire range. This doesn't affect random eggs hatched nowadays because they are not subject to the restrictions of un-scatterscrolled old dragons or un-scatterscrolled progens, but it does create discrepancies in frequency of colors that already exist (or exist on progens).

There are other ways that you could ask a similar question, but I think this should pretty much cover the spirit of it.

they/them

As the other users have explained, it is very rare! But the sheer volume of eggs hatched means that it does happen from time to time. It’s definitely a very specific, challenging/fun thing to collect! [center][url=https://www1.flightrising.com/dragon/17130318][img]https://www1.flightrising.com/rendern/avatars/171304/17130318.png[/img][/url] [url=https://www1.flightrising.com/dragon/21533965][img]https://www1.flightrising.com/rendern/avatars/215340/21533965.png[/img][/url] [url=https://www1.flightrising.com/dragon/87162308][img]https://www1.flightrising.com/rendern/avatars/871624/87162308.png[/img][/url] [url=https://www1.flightrising.com/dragon/83110026][img]https://www1.flightrising.com/rendern/avatars/831101/83110026.png[/img][/url][/center]

Cirrostratus

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May 03, 2024 20:04:40

As the other users have explained, it is very rare! But the sheer volume of eggs hatched means that it does happen from time to time.

It’s definitely a very specific, challenging/fun thing to collect!

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CIRROSTRATUS

XXX G1 Quest 2.0

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i have an xyx and one-off xyx that are basically fraternal twins... i wish i knew how to gene them well though :{ [url=https://www1.flightrising.com/dragon/77009783][img]https://www1.flightrising.com/rendern/350/770098/77009783_350.png[/img][/url][url=https://www1.flightrising.com/dragon/78438158][img]https://www1.flightrising.com/rendern/350/784382/78438158_350.png[/img][/url]

Dullanyan

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May 03, 2024 20:18:33

i have an xyx and one-off xyx that are basically fraternal twins... i wish i knew how to gene them well though :{

Marcie | 28 | they/them | current icon dragon! :}

It depends on the kind of egg you’re using too; if you’re hatching from a non-elemental egg like Nocs, the chances will be much lower of getting an exact match, element and all, than they would be from an elemental egg, where all you have to worry about is the colors

I’ve gotten close! The closest I’ve gotten is the same primary / secondary color, but the terts and elements were different

Plasmic

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May 03, 2024 20:45:33

It depends on the kind of egg you’re using too; if you’re hatching from a non-elemental egg like Nocs, the chances will be much lower of getting an exact match, element and all, than they would be from an elemental egg, where all you have to worry about is the colors

I’ve gotten close! The closest I’ve gotten is the same primary / secondary color, but the terts and elements were different

Huh, made me look through my lair! I collect certain combos and now that I'm reviewing them, there are a lot more "twins" than I thought! Almost never been intentional with the exception of exact colour combo goals, because I don't usually care about tertiaries (most terts are unused)—plus I don't typically hatch eggs so it's more of the randomness of other people's forum and AH sales and me picking them—but it's still neat to experience the coincidence. Most of those matches are the same three colours but different elements and/or genders. However, two of those couples happen to be exact, perfect twins: same colours, same element, same gender. [url=https://www1.flightrising.com/dragon/19554639][img]https://www1.flightrising.com/rendern/avatars/195547/19554639.png[/img][/url][url=https://www1.flightrising.com/dragon/79538758][img]https://www1.flightrising.com/rendern/avatars/795388/79538758.png[/img][/url] [url=https://www1.flightrising.com/dragon/19860191][img]https://www1.flightrising.com/rendern/avatars/198602/19860191.png[/img][/url][url=https://www1.flightrising.com/dragon/20486957][img]https://www1.flightrising.com/rendern/avatars/204870/20486957.png[/img][/url] Cool! :D Hatching two of those on one's own must be a crazy goal, probably not realistic to most! I wonder if anyone has managed.

Weide

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May 04, 2024 01:00:56

Huh, made me look through my lair! I collect certain combos and now that I'm reviewing them, there are a lot more "twins" than I thought! Almost never been intentional with the exception of exact colour combo goals, because I don't usually care about tertiaries (most terts are unused)—plus I don't typically hatch eggs so it's more of the randomness of other people's forum and AH sales and me picking them—but it's still neat to experience the coincidence.

Most of those matches are the same three colours but different elements and/or genders. However, two of those couples happen to be exact, perfect twins: same colours, same element, same gender.

Cool! :D

Hatching two of those on one's own must be a crazy goal, probably not realistic to most! I wonder if anyone has managed.

Last edited on May 04, 2024 01:03:15 by Weide