Flight Rising Discussion

[quote name="Kiln" date="2024-03-23 20:33:47" ] Not only are they identical, their IDs are RIGHT beside each other, which may have not happened if one of them swapped places with #93832822. [/quote] ooo this is also interesting! if we look at the chances of the primals not having their triplet interupt, i think this would take the 1/40,000 (0.0025%) to 1/60,000 (0.00167%) chance! also neat :D [rule] edit; woah the math gets complicated below me. i think it helps to mention my assumptions. primal hatch rates are [b]independent[/b]. the probability of a first primal does not affect the chances of the second's primal probability. having a single primal in any hatch location would be 1/200. having two out of a nest of 2-5 is 1/40,000. the chance of the primals being hatched in any order is [b]equal[/b]. primal/[b]normal[/b]/primal is just as likely as primal/primal/[b]normal [/b]or [b]normal[/b]/primal/primal. 2/3 chance of being sequential for a three-egg nest. 2/3*1/40k, 1/60k.

Given 3 in the nest,

- The chance of exactly 2 primal is (0.005^2 * 0.995 * 3) = (7.4625 * 10^-5) = about 1/13,400

- The chance of at least 2 primal (including the possibility of all 3 primal) is (0.005^2 * 0.995 * 3) + (0.005^3) = (7.475 * 10^-5) = about 1/13,378

- The chance of exactly 2 primal and they are consecutive* is (0.005^2 * 0.995 * 2) = (4.975 * 10^-5) = about 1/20,100

*This assumes that all 3 babies' IDs are consecutive, which is usually true but I have seen it not be the case. I don't know the odds of this happening to be able to account for it.

If you're wondering where the factors of 2 and 3 come from, this is to account for the fact that it could be any two of the babies. "The first baby and the second baby are primal" is a separate event from "the second baby and the third baby are primal", so 3 accounts for it could be [#1 and #2], [#2 and #3], or [#1 and #3]. But, if you also want them to be consecutive, that rules out [#1 and #3] as an outcome we care about.

wowie,,,,thats like shiny pokemon rarity i think (<----doesnt know math At All)
very pretty hatches...i love veils

Been playing since launch, always have my nests full, and can count the Primals I've hatched on one hand. I can't even imagine the odds of that. Amazing!

Congratulations!! I have NEVER heard of this happening before, that's some insane luck!!

To give a little context to the math:

If multiple events are independent, you can get the odds of them happening by multiplying the chances of each event together.

Independent means that the events don't affect each other. For example, if you roll a standard die, the odds of getting a 6 are 1/6. If you roll a second die, it isn't affected by the first one. The odds of both dice coming up six are 1/6 x 1/6 = 1/36.

You can do the same thing with decimals: The odds of a coin coming up heads is 0.5. The odds of three coins all coming up heads is 0.5 x 0.5 x 0.5 = 0.125. Don't use a straight percent though: 50% x 50% x 50% does not equal 125000%

This does not work if probability of the events is linked. The odds that a person has blond hair is not independent of the odds that a person has blue eyes. The odds that a person has a beard is not independent of the odds a person is wearing a dress. A lot of things in the real world ARE linked, so be careful where you use this formula. But it works great in a lot of gaming situations.

On Flight Rising, breed, primary/secondary/tertiary colors, primary/secondary/tertiary genes, eye type, and male/female are all independent factors that you can apply this formula to, as long as you know the odds of each individual event.

It gets a little more complicated when you consider multiple chances for something to happen. For example, in a breeding project, that formula can be used to find the odds that any particular hatchling will be what you want. But each nest can have multiple eggs. Each time you breed you might get 1-5 eggs. So if you want to know the odds from each nest, or the odds from each breeding, it gets more complicated.

Also, that formula assumes you don't know how any of the factors are going to turn out in advance. If you already have some results the math is different. In math speak, you'll see "given." As in "Given that this person owns a bathing suit, what are the odds they own swim goggles?"

For independent events, the events that you already know the answer to just drop out of the formula. Going back to the coin flip example, if I already know that I got two heads in a row, the odds of the next coin flip coming up heads is just 0.5, no math required.

Interestingly, this means that, given you got one primal hatchling already, the odds that the next hatchling will also be a primal are just 0.5%, or 1/200. When you don't yet know if you're getting any primals at all, the odds of this happening are really rare. But mathematically, there should be quite a few primals on this site with twins. Which was not a result I was expecting when I started thinking about this.

Anyway, congratulations!

And they're sequential number buddies! What amazing luck (and potential lore)!

I dare you to make a pinglist for lore updates. Would that put you / the owner(s) under pressure to make lore? Perhaps.... But they NEED lore, this is so cool

That's some cool lore opportunity there