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Hm... this is interesting. I remember that Light did a battle with Lightning in 2015 or so to determine some mechanics (I don't recall what all was made explicitly public but I had in the past gotten permission to share, and it's years old data anyways)... Light and Lightning at that point in time, at least among recorded exalters, seemed to have a ratio that was fairly close to the difference in population size. It would be interesting to repeat that experiment now with both Arcane and Lightning now to see if the dom mechanic is properly factoring active users, or if it is running off flight size. If the latter it would take fewer dragons for Light to flip Arcane than Lightning, if false the opposite would be true (if I have my numbers right). I'm not sure if Beastclans working now has/would have an impact on this- there could have been another bug fixed or something?

I'm also wondering if flight activity fluctuates over time of year- easier to maintain activity when no homework/exams/etc. Might be worth repeating around NotN and Trickmurk? I am of course up for helping with any future data gathering.
@squidragon
@jinian (thought you might be interested in this)

It might be the small sample size, but I wouldn't be surprised if more tests still put lightning near the bottom of the list in active population. Mostly for these reasons:

• Older player age: There was a survey done a while back on player age by flight. The site wide average at the time was 20-22 (and has likely trended lower since then). Lightning was on the old end of the scale with most players being in the early to mid twenties. People graduating, starting work or families, etc. are more likely to drop the game out of lack of free time.
• Low transfer rate The transfer chart shows that Lightning's transfer rate is fairly neutral to slightly positive, even back when the registration level was high. Since higher registration tends to track with more transfers out, it makes me think that people in lightning are more likely to quit than change flights ...The main issue with this idea is that fire has a similar growth rate but is middle of the pack activity-wise. Though maybe Fire has a higher gross transfers (and thus trading active people back and forth) rather than just a few people moving. Also referencing the age thing above, I think fire tended to be on the younger side of the player base.

As far as transfers go, I would suspect that newbies would transfer in the first two weeks or less; by that point they would have enough of a feel of the flight aesthetics and culture to know if it was a good fit but not so long that any loyalty will have built up. On a similar note, transfers may actually be more from older players getting bored and wanting a change of pace


@ScienceGal8
The recorded ratios may have been close, but I remember chatter that Light had (and still has) so much daily background exalting that the numbers were too skewed to be salvageable. Similar flight dom rankings/styles may be more relevant for testing than close population size.
Of course, that was also long enough ago that Lightning could easily have been more active then.

@Racnarath Yeah, the background exalting levels are hard to control for... maybe if both flights are just left to their own devices for a day or so and then the scheduled exalting happens to try and see how much it takes to flip above the noise? Idk, I'm an ideas-by-volume person so, heh, they don't all pan out.

@starlight18

@ScienceGal8

Our data with Lightning were excellent, and I'm satisfied with the existing results. I can't look up the link right now, but check the Light dom archives. :)

I'd like to be in the pinglist @squidragon

@Jinian Found the link okay through search; the spreadsheet is super cool (can I link it here?).

I still think maybe it'd be interesting to repeat the experiment with flights that we know are larger and smaller (and hypothesize that active populations might have the reverse) since the Beastclans now work and there may have been other backend changes? Idk, you guys got a lotta plans.

Ice: +30
Light: +28
Fire: +11
Earth: +10
Lightning: +5
Wind: +3
Arcane: -2
Nature: -6
Water: -6
Plague: -9
Shadow: -25

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@squidragon Hello ^^ Could you remove me from the pinglist? :)

@squidragon could I be added to the pinglist?