@squidragon Can you add me to the pinglist? This is super interesting
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TOPIC | Flight Population Tracking
@swuiddragon wow this is so cool, I’m impressed you put this much effort into it. Could I please be added to the ping list?
@swuiddragon wow this is so cool, I’m impressed you put this much effort into it. Could I please be added to the ping list?
@squidragon this is super fascinating how the data changes from week to week. can i be added to the ping list?
@squidragon this is super fascinating how the data changes from week to week. can i be added to the ping list?
For the last time, it's 'gif', not 'gif'.
Woooo this is really cool thank you for all the work you do! Can I be put on the pinglist? :3c
Woooo this is really cool thank you for all the work you do! Can I be put on the pinglist? :3c
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♦ Hatchery ♦ Progen Lineage ♦ Fodder Rescue ♦ Sell me dragons |
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@squidragon
This is incredibly interesting! You put so much effort into this, too.
Could I please be added to the pinglist?
This is incredibly interesting! You put so much effort into this, too.
Could I please be added to the pinglist?
@squidragon
This is incredibly interesting! You put so much effort into this, too.
Could I please be added to the pinglist?
This is incredibly interesting! You put so much effort into this, too.
Could I please be added to the pinglist?
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Bugs/Adele Deutsch/English FR +3 :) |
Updating the pinglist~
Updating the pinglist~
squid/winter | FR+3 | they/them | spelled squidra-gon (like octagon)
[center][u]Last Few Weeks' Growth[/u][/center]
I was buried in gala prep, but I still grabbed the numbers!
JANUARY 20TH
Shadow: 214 (-42 below average)
Arcane: 193 (-28 below average)
Plague: 155 (-25 below average)
Ice: 141 (+4 above average)
Nature: 135 (-9 below average)
Lightning: 125 (-18 below average)
Wind: 105 (-29 below average)
Water: 77 (-27 below average)
Fire: 72 (-14 below average)
Light: 71 (-48 below average)
Earth: 45 (-4 below average)
Total Gain: 1333 vs average 1573
JANUARY 27TH
Shadow: 214 (-42 below average)
Arcane: 190 (-31 below average)
Ice: 169 (+32 above average)
Plague: 145 (-35 below average)
Lightning: 128 (-15 below average)
Nature: 124 (-20 below average)
Light: 108 (-11 below average)
Wind: 94 (-40 below average)
Water: 83 (-21 below average)
Fire: 50 (-36 below average)
Earth: 42 (-7 below average)
Total Gain: 1347 vs average 1573
FEBRUARY 3RD
Shadow: 201 (-55 below average)
Arcane: 170 (-51 below average)
Ice: 157 (+20 above average)
Plague: 116 (-64 below average)
Lightning: 116 (-27 below average)
Wind: 107 (-27 below average)
Nature: 101 (-43 below average)
Light: 86 (-33 below average)
Water: 74 (-30 below average)
Fire: 53 (-33 below average)
Earth: 44 (-5 below average)
Total Gain: 1225 vs average 1573
[center][u]New Year 2019 Update[/u][/center]
I'm a month late, but I've done this every year so I really figured it was time to do it again!!
Last year, I made the following predictions about the populations for this year. Let's see how I did (Probably terrible considering open reg happened haha)
Here's last year's estimate card. I expected a decrease in growth of 18% and, well, that sure as heck didn't happen haha.
[img]https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/352241800141996032/397079969353695253/unknown.png[/img]
I also made this prediction: "Light is still expected to pass Nature in 2018 but... Only Barely. Plague passing Wind is no longer expected until 2019."
Which, well, I was backwards. Plague did pass Wind! But definitely no Light gains here. I don't actually foresee Light passing Nature at all anymore.
If you'd like to know Precisely how wrong I was, take a look at this...
Earth - Estimated Population (11534), Actual Population (12392), Short by: 858 users
Plague - Estimated Population (41747), Actual Population (44919), Short by: 3172 users
Wind - Estimated Population (42163), Actual Population (43973), Short by: 1810 users
Water - Estimated Population (25864), Actual Population (27658), Short by: 1794 users
Lightning - Estimated Population (39273), Actual Population (41457), Short by: 2184 users
Ice - Estimated Population (38713), Actual Population (40629), Short by: 1916 users
Shadow - Estimated Population (57840), Actual Population (62472), Short by: 4632 users
Light - Estimated Population (37262), Actual Population (37958), Short by: 696 users
Arcane - Estimated Population (53512), Actual Population (57143), Short by: 3631 users
Nature - Estimated Population (37210), Actual Population (39557), Short by: 2347 users
Fire - Estimated Population (23643), Actual Population (25033), Short by: 1390 users
In sum, we gained around 24430 more users than I thought we would. :o
I'm gonna go ahead and myself a solid C- for "Well! I tried!"
Here's the card from the year before in case you're curious:
[img]https://68.media.tumblr.com/6c866b92be48c95277f1c88d84544fad/tumblr_oj4aplOuke1tes27xo1_1280.png[/img]
These numbers for New Years 2019 are actually closer than the ones from the start of the year. I overestimated that year by a lot, so I thought "okay I'll take annual decreases into account" and then ate my words haha
Going forward, and knowing that open registration has spiked numbers, let's come up with a new card.
The average growth since open reg has been 1573 users, but we haven't seen numbers that large in a while, so it's possible that this is either a season effect, or we're steadying out a little slower. The average growth since October has been 1386.
I'm going to be Optimistic and assume that this is possibly a seasonal effect, with a slight decrease over time possible (let's say 10% per year, for no real reason at all other than "last time I used the actual 18% decrease, my numbers got tossed out that window. so we'll be more conservative this time"). Taking this into account, here's my prediction card for this next year:
[img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/498845335439802368/541678623136940057/unknown.png[/img]
I'm no longer expecting a Light takeover. No, now we're seeing that possibly Nature will overtake Ice at some point in like.... 2021...
So uh, buckle up kids for our next exciting flip in something like 3 years. Yay.
@Caerbannog @Kitari @StrykeSlammerII @interestingword @Thalasuchus @Meredith44 @Amarra @SadinaSaphrite @deterwhat @Fudge @Ravenmoon @Rannera @Foxofwonders @Fulcrum @Steffon @Orbitz @AcidStar @Pyrus @Lapillus @Xanthelei @Riley92 @FelGS @Minnichan @luadep @Phoenixfyre @Dainty @Keeroh @CapnKyrie @Kyrtian @Slyjinks @Parsley @CaptainCrackers @snowy @AriaBellaGato @Cathat @TikindiDragon @vetica @Mountainfall @lisasunny @Safirien @Valemora @skyarising @Agberts @Cuppycakez @Zenna @ChronicleCat @SilverLanayru @PrinceRaven @haikwoshevo @Fabtastic @Marmol @Wyverra @Sonicookie @Chinapiggy @russmond @Puns @TyraStark @blueparakeets @Asteria @MissMokushiroku @Blacktide2014 @Lefuulei @AmmieKatt @maralice13 @Asviloka @Final1204 @Cousin @Bluesnow26 @Inukimi @RainbowWolfy @Competitor @BloodLugia @eunkiel @arcticburrito @ZombieMoon @Caustica @Chantaey @PitchPines @Kalvin @SporkLord @WestWindWalker @Erato @Vaze @DyRyuu @Kirsui @lordofthedragons @mccoco2467 @KiwiSavagely @Acacia @ricci @ExoticBacoe @Minona @feming @turing @Willowfire @Jaxton @NightFuryScream @linguistic @Cavatica @kragar @CakeOn @Spazz @ScienceGal8 @edenprimes @izz @KathiraNarae @Swmachoodoo @tamka @Thoracosaurus @BlackHawk2000 @Sylkaen @Verwald @Ralen @TokalaLupe @HollyBerry @Aureate @gemino @GhostQueen13 @WynterDragen @Skylinne @Lilykittens @EXPLODINGLAZER @JadePower @Peegeray @Kamme @idlewildly @temperama @StitchedinIce @MightyNinja11 @cuddlekits @Xemseige @Frailty @DJFeather @Sorikia @Coyoteclaw11 @Jensy @BatCrooks @Cutestuff @Officer @CosyAlligator @NomasaurusRex @chromehorse @qwigoqwaga @AshesToRain @kas62000 @Yellowbelt99 @AzraMajere @Snipe @TeenyTinyDragon @IgnisFlamel @Klawzor @catchingadri @polefish @BabyMelon @OrchidSprig @QiEclipse @Dragonley @Percifrax @MortimerMironov @Eulerian @Laser16 @XxRQYTxX @TrainsDoNot @JasmineBlooms @BrandendDraak @julietofmayfair @terabyte @Beliar @Skejter @Parda @Airaly @BianchaJo @snugglebug @Synner @Opal99 @Cryptnoch @ScarletTheDragon @SleepyAnnie @SapphireMoon @oramutato @PlatinumDream @SpookyClockwork @Joyday05 @PurpleHibiscus @Starrlight @Soaringwingull @c33213 @gizamimi @LaAstaria @CalicoMainecoon @depinvenom @LadyJLayne @sacredpools @MageFeather @Steeil @FraidyCat @SariStar @Jetfeather @Kapara @Finnianheart @Adeya @morpheme @Moavi @Starglade @NessaTaralom @winterbright @RenatoUlbov @Kellaco @BobolGrobol @violalore @Dawnsky23 @Nepkitty @Xeyla @Romi @Sophitia @xCrimsonCatx @bxsmxth @Afazeria @Kwisten @Omemega @annathequeen @Novalore @16Kevin16 @Sarihya @chescab @rluie @MoonlitCacti @Boneless @Corycia @CosmicGelatin @Vulpess @RuinofDarkness @crombinatorrjr @WintryStorm @Korpinsiipi @SanctifiedSavage @Stellatrix13 @HopeBagels @NoctisNix @Aftehala @olivirgo @Madolche @Tryvyal @Pachirisu @Nezumi @TwilightStars @WillowFleur124 @willowlight7 @akolit @Oakhearted @MuffinPaws @ribbonz @HeadlessKing @GingerPuff @midoriyasour @beepboopitsme @graybird @SandBoa @RAV3N @Lunalatic @andersbegabt @lunusdragoness @Roccoco @Shoppe @Keary @Dieter @KairinRose @KrazKitCat @Lietra @DuskySkyes @PijukVonGacy @Cottony5 @Chuul
Last Few Weeks' Growth
I was buried in gala prep, but I still grabbed the numbers!
JANUARY 20TH
Shadow: 214 (-42 below average)
Arcane: 193 (-28 below average)
Plague: 155 (-25 below average)
Ice: 141 (+4 above average)
Nature: 135 (-9 below average)
Lightning: 125 (-18 below average)
Wind: 105 (-29 below average)
Water: 77 (-27 below average)
Fire: 72 (-14 below average)
Light: 71 (-48 below average)
Earth: 45 (-4 below average)
Total Gain: 1333 vs average 1573
JANUARY 27TH
Shadow: 214 (-42 below average)
Arcane: 190 (-31 below average)
Ice: 169 (+32 above average)
Plague: 145 (-35 below average)
Lightning: 128 (-15 below average)
Nature: 124 (-20 below average)
Light: 108 (-11 below average)
Wind: 94 (-40 below average)
Water: 83 (-21 below average)
Fire: 50 (-36 below average)
Earth: 42 (-7 below average)
Total Gain: 1347 vs average 1573
FEBRUARY 3RD
Shadow: 201 (-55 below average)
Arcane: 170 (-51 below average)
Ice: 157 (+20 above average)
Plague: 116 (-64 below average)
Lightning: 116 (-27 below average)
Wind: 107 (-27 below average)
Nature: 101 (-43 below average)
Light: 86 (-33 below average)
Water: 74 (-30 below average)
Fire: 53 (-33 below average)
Earth: 44 (-5 below average)
Total Gain: 1225 vs average 1573
New Year 2019 Update
I'm a month late, but I've done this every year so I really figured it was time to do it again!!
Last year, I made the following predictions about the populations for this year. Let's see how I did (Probably terrible considering open reg happened haha)
Here's last year's estimate card. I expected a decrease in growth of 18% and, well, that sure as heck didn't happen haha.
I also made this prediction: "Light is still expected to pass Nature in 2018 but... Only Barely. Plague passing Wind is no longer expected until 2019."
Which, well, I was backwards. Plague did pass Wind! But definitely no Light gains here. I don't actually foresee Light passing Nature at all anymore.
If you'd like to know Precisely how wrong I was, take a look at this...
Earth - Estimated Population (11534), Actual Population (12392), Short by: 858 users
Plague - Estimated Population (41747), Actual Population (44919), Short by: 3172 users
Wind - Estimated Population (42163), Actual Population (43973), Short by: 1810 users
Water - Estimated Population (25864), Actual Population (27658), Short by: 1794 users
Lightning - Estimated Population (39273), Actual Population (41457), Short by: 2184 users
Ice - Estimated Population (38713), Actual Population (40629), Short by: 1916 users
Shadow - Estimated Population (57840), Actual Population (62472), Short by: 4632 users
Light - Estimated Population (37262), Actual Population (37958), Short by: 696 users
Arcane - Estimated Population (53512), Actual Population (57143), Short by: 3631 users
Nature - Estimated Population (37210), Actual Population (39557), Short by: 2347 users
Fire - Estimated Population (23643), Actual Population (25033), Short by: 1390 users
In sum, we gained around 24430 more users than I thought we would. :o
I'm gonna go ahead and myself a solid C- for "Well! I tried!"
Here's the card from the year before in case you're curious:
These numbers for New Years 2019 are actually closer than the ones from the start of the year. I overestimated that year by a lot, so I thought "okay I'll take annual decreases into account" and then ate my words haha
Going forward, and knowing that open registration has spiked numbers, let's come up with a new card.
The average growth since open reg has been 1573 users, but we haven't seen numbers that large in a while, so it's possible that this is either a season effect, or we're steadying out a little slower. The average growth since October has been 1386.
I'm going to be Optimistic and assume that this is possibly a seasonal effect, with a slight decrease over time possible (let's say 10% per year, for no real reason at all other than "last time I used the actual 18% decrease, my numbers got tossed out that window. so we'll be more conservative this time"). Taking this into account, here's my prediction card for this next year:
I'm no longer expecting a Light takeover. No, now we're seeing that possibly Nature will overtake Ice at some point in like.... 2021...
So uh, buckle up kids for our next exciting flip in something like 3 years. Yay.
@Caerbannog @Kitari @StrykeSlammerII @interestingword @Thalasuchus @Meredith44 @Amarra @SadinaSaphrite @deterwhat @Fudge @Ravenmoon @Rannera @Foxofwonders @Fulcrum @Steffon @Orbitz @AcidStar @Pyrus @Lapillus @Xanthelei @Riley92 @FelGS @Minnichan @luadep @Phoenixfyre @Dainty @Keeroh @CapnKyrie @Kyrtian @Slyjinks @Parsley @CaptainCrackers @snowy @AriaBellaGato @Cathat @TikindiDragon @vetica @Mountainfall @lisasunny @Safirien @Valemora @skyarising @Agberts @Cuppycakez @Zenna @ChronicleCat @SilverLanayru @PrinceRaven @haikwoshevo @Fabtastic @Marmol @Wyverra @Sonicookie @Chinapiggy @russmond @Puns @TyraStark @blueparakeets @Asteria @MissMokushiroku @Blacktide2014 @Lefuulei @AmmieKatt @maralice13 @Asviloka @Final1204 @Cousin @Bluesnow26 @Inukimi @RainbowWolfy @Competitor @BloodLugia @eunkiel @arcticburrito @ZombieMoon @Caustica @Chantaey @PitchPines @Kalvin @SporkLord @WestWindWalker @Erato @Vaze @DyRyuu @Kirsui @lordofthedragons @mccoco2467 @KiwiSavagely @Acacia @ricci @ExoticBacoe @Minona @feming @turing @Willowfire @Jaxton @NightFuryScream @linguistic @Cavatica @kragar @CakeOn @Spazz @ScienceGal8 @edenprimes @izz @KathiraNarae @Swmachoodoo @tamka @Thoracosaurus @BlackHawk2000 @Sylkaen @Verwald @Ralen @TokalaLupe @HollyBerry @Aureate @gemino @GhostQueen13 @WynterDragen @Skylinne @Lilykittens @EXPLODINGLAZER @JadePower @Peegeray @Kamme @idlewildly @temperama @StitchedinIce @MightyNinja11 @cuddlekits @Xemseige @Frailty @DJFeather @Sorikia @Coyoteclaw11 @Jensy @BatCrooks @Cutestuff @Officer @CosyAlligator @NomasaurusRex @chromehorse @qwigoqwaga @AshesToRain @kas62000 @Yellowbelt99 @AzraMajere @Snipe @TeenyTinyDragon @IgnisFlamel @Klawzor @catchingadri @polefish @BabyMelon @OrchidSprig @QiEclipse @Dragonley @Percifrax @MortimerMironov @Eulerian @Laser16 @XxRQYTxX @TrainsDoNot @JasmineBlooms @BrandendDraak @julietofmayfair @terabyte @Beliar @Skejter @Parda @Airaly @BianchaJo @snugglebug @Synner @Opal99 @Cryptnoch @ScarletTheDragon @SleepyAnnie @SapphireMoon @oramutato @PlatinumDream @SpookyClockwork @Joyday05 @PurpleHibiscus @Starrlight @Soaringwingull @c33213 @gizamimi @LaAstaria @CalicoMainecoon @depinvenom @LadyJLayne @sacredpools @MageFeather @Steeil @FraidyCat @SariStar @Jetfeather @Kapara @Finnianheart @Adeya @morpheme @Moavi @Starglade @NessaTaralom @winterbright @RenatoUlbov @Kellaco @BobolGrobol @violalore @Dawnsky23 @Nepkitty @Xeyla @Romi @Sophitia @xCrimsonCatx @bxsmxth @Afazeria @Kwisten @Omemega @annathequeen @Novalore @16Kevin16 @Sarihya @chescab @rluie @MoonlitCacti @Boneless @Corycia @CosmicGelatin @Vulpess @RuinofDarkness @crombinatorrjr @WintryStorm @Korpinsiipi @SanctifiedSavage @Stellatrix13 @HopeBagels @NoctisNix @Aftehala @olivirgo @Madolche @Tryvyal @Pachirisu @Nezumi @TwilightStars @WillowFleur124 @willowlight7 @akolit @Oakhearted @MuffinPaws @ribbonz @HeadlessKing @GingerPuff @midoriyasour @beepboopitsme @graybird @SandBoa @RAV3N @Lunalatic @andersbegabt @lunusdragoness @Roccoco @Shoppe @Keary @Dieter @KairinRose @KrazKitCat @Lietra @DuskySkyes @PijukVonGacy @Cottony5 @Chuul
squid/winter | FR+3 | they/them | spelled squidra-gon (like octagon)
