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TOPIC | Grace's Probability Eye Guide
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If you're like me, you're probably screaming at the top of your lungs about this new update! And your favorite dragons suddenly seem like they could be a whole lot better if they had some spiffy new eyes. The thing is... how many will you need for a perfect flight rep with primal eyes or to complete your local eldritch abomination with many eyes.

This is where me and my experiments come in. I noticed that the potential progeny list has differing eye colors, and as such, can be used to calculate data on the eyes. I used two XXX white parents so that I can see the eyes clearer, and here are my results.
Total dragon babies scried: 400
Common: 179
Uncommon: 109
Unusual: 64
Rare: 33
Faceted: 6
Multigaze: 5
Primal: 4

This is.... rather concerning for people who want to breed a dragon with faceted, multigaze, or primal eyes. Or people who want to scatter scroll one. Here are the probabilities I've calculated from this data of getting each gene by each way, since scatter vials will guarantee not getting a common.
Breeding Eye Probabilities:
Common- 44.75%
Uncommon- 27.25%
Unusual- 16%
Rare- 8.25%
Faceted- 1.5%
Multigaze- 1.25%
Primal-1%

Scatter Vial Eye Probabilities:
Uncommon- 49.3%
Unusual- 29.0%
Rare- 14.9%
Faceted- 2.7%
Multigaze- 2.3%
Primal- 1.8%

I hope this data helps people out! Please take it with a grain of salt as I didn't take enough data for extreme accuracy in regards to the probabilities. If anyone wants to help by submitting their own scry data, it would be very much appreciated!!!
If you're like me, you're probably screaming at the top of your lungs about this new update! And your favorite dragons suddenly seem like they could be a whole lot better if they had some spiffy new eyes. The thing is... how many will you need for a perfect flight rep with primal eyes or to complete your local eldritch abomination with many eyes.

This is where me and my experiments come in. I noticed that the potential progeny list has differing eye colors, and as such, can be used to calculate data on the eyes. I used two XXX white parents so that I can see the eyes clearer, and here are my results.
Total dragon babies scried: 400
Common: 179
Uncommon: 109
Unusual: 64
Rare: 33
Faceted: 6
Multigaze: 5
Primal: 4

This is.... rather concerning for people who want to breed a dragon with faceted, multigaze, or primal eyes. Or people who want to scatter scroll one. Here are the probabilities I've calculated from this data of getting each gene by each way, since scatter vials will guarantee not getting a common.
Breeding Eye Probabilities:
Common- 44.75%
Uncommon- 27.25%
Unusual- 16%
Rare- 8.25%
Faceted- 1.5%
Multigaze- 1.25%
Primal-1%

Scatter Vial Eye Probabilities:
Uncommon- 49.3%
Unusual- 29.0%
Rare- 14.9%
Faceted- 2.7%
Multigaze- 2.3%
Primal- 1.8%

I hope this data helps people out! Please take it with a grain of salt as I didn't take enough data for extreme accuracy in regards to the probabilities. If anyone wants to help by submitting their own scry data, it would be very much appreciated!!!
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Thanks for figuring this out of us lazy people !!! :)
Thanks for figuring this out of us lazy people !!! :)
+9 FR time
Yup seems about right TToTT

This is my data from actual scrolling so far:
Scroll attempt 1: uncommon
Scroll attempt 2: uncommon
Scroll attempt 3: unusual
Scroll attempt 4: unusual
Scroll attempt 5: uncommon
Scroll attempt 6: unusual
Scroll attempt 7: uncommon
Scroll attempt 8: uncommon

I keep the list updated on my dragons profile: http://flightrising.com/main.php?p=lair&tab=dragon&id=229086&did=36880275

I'm trying for multi-gaze.
Yup seems about right TToTT

This is my data from actual scrolling so far:
Scroll attempt 1: uncommon
Scroll attempt 2: uncommon
Scroll attempt 3: unusual
Scroll attempt 4: unusual
Scroll attempt 5: uncommon
Scroll attempt 6: unusual
Scroll attempt 7: uncommon
Scroll attempt 8: uncommon

I keep the list updated on my dragons profile: http://flightrising.com/main.php?p=lair&tab=dragon&id=229086&did=36880275

I'm trying for multi-gaze.
and this is why I'm not using scattersight or ever breeding for specific eyes XD I just don't have the patience for that, personally. Best of luck to everyone who has an eye goal!!!
and this is why I'm not using scattersight or ever breeding for specific eyes XD I just don't have the patience for that, personally. Best of luck to everyone who has an eye goal!!!
Neurodivergent Nonbinary Adult
Any Pronouns, No Preference

I have a processing disorder and I'm notoriously awful at math so patience is highly appreciated.

Feel free to ping me; I appreciate serious and silly pings!

My Questboard and Wishlist!
Oh wow... these odds look, real bad huh. I thought primal would be like a 1 in 50 chance at the WORST. Would have been nice if staff had given us any indication they'd be THIS rare, think im gonna give up on grinding for eye scatters now lol

Thanks for figuring this out and saving us the time, hahaha
Oh wow... these odds look, real bad huh. I thought primal would be like a 1 in 50 chance at the WORST. Would have been nice if staff had given us any indication they'd be THIS rare, think im gonna give up on grinding for eye scatters now lol

Thanks for figuring this out and saving us the time, hahaha
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I'm just glad that I can help people! Honestly, I think the eye gene addition provides a really cool factor in things, that random breeding can result in really amazing things, like strange eyes. Plus it could encourage people to try to make dragons with strange colors but eyes they want work.
I'm just glad that I can help people! Honestly, I think the eye gene addition provides a really cool factor in things, that random breeding can result in really amazing things, like strange eyes. Plus it could encourage people to try to make dragons with strange colors but eyes they want work.
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On my first scatter my poor boy Caldwell got Multi on the first go with the vial received as a gift. I suppose it could be part of his lore now when I get around to writing it, the first brave volunteer, and now he sees himself as deformed. Others might not, but I could always scatter him again... [url=http://flightrising.com/main.php?dragon=19829941] [img]http://flightrising.com/rendern/350/198300/19829941_350.png[/img] [/url] [img]http://flightrising.com/dgen/preview/dragon?age=1&body=3&bodygene=1&breed=12&element=6&eyetype=5&gender=0&tert=23&tertgene=5&winggene=8&wings=20&auth=356dc814802597da8877a2f204c5d255dcc68789&dummyext=prev.png[/img]
On my first scatter my poor boy Caldwell got Multi on the first go with the vial received as a gift. I suppose it could be part of his lore now when I get around to writing it, the first brave volunteer, and now he sees himself as deformed. Others might not, but I could always scatter him again...

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dragon?age=1&body=3&bodygene=1&breed=12&element=6&eyetype=5&gender=0&tert=23&tertgene=5&winggene=8&wings=20&auth=356dc814802597da8877a2f204c5d255dcc68789&dummyext=prev.png
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this make me sad as I wanted primal for my progen but there is no way I'd get that lucky.... XD
this make me sad as I wanted primal for my progen but there is no way I'd get that lucky.... XD
What would you
attempt
if you could not
fail?
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My love for the eldritch and weird is sobbing over this. But thank you.
My love for the eldritch and weird is sobbing over this. But thank you.
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keep in mind, scattersight will have slightly different odds than breeding, since it knocks out common eyes as a result :)

i scattered this dragon about 10 times to get multi-gaze. i didn't keep exact track, but here's the order i vaguely remember:

unusual, unusual, uncommon, uncommon, unusual, rare, rare, unusual, multi-gaze
keep in mind, scattersight will have slightly different odds than breeding, since it knocks out common eyes as a result :)

i scattered this dragon about 10 times to get multi-gaze. i didn't keep exact track, but here's the order i vaguely remember:

unusual, unusual, uncommon, uncommon, unusual, rare, rare, unusual, multi-gaze

@snugglebug
#165006
he
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