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TOPIC | Hatchling Probability Calculator
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Inspired by JessDwarf's and later Kiena's Breeding Rarity Findings threads, I used its data to write a tool to calculate the likelihood of producing a desired hatching from a breeding pair. (I am now using the probabilities from Straif's thread.)

http://fr-hatchling-probability.appspot.com/

Current Version: 1.3.6, June 24th, 2019
  • Added Laced, Edged, Lionfish, Noxtide, Starmap, Constellation, Peacock, Ringlets.
  • Fixed bug that threw error whenever Underbelly was selected.

I will add eye types when someone has compiled enough data on their probabilities. I will add Gaolers and Gaoler genes eventually, but I don't have an ETA on that as I will need to make some significant changes to allow for the peculiarities of ancient breeds.

Please post bug reports or suggestions for improvement here.
Inspired by JessDwarf's and later Kiena's Breeding Rarity Findings threads, I used its data to write a tool to calculate the likelihood of producing a desired hatching from a breeding pair. (I am now using the probabilities from Straif's thread.)

http://fr-hatchling-probability.appspot.com/

Current Version: 1.3.6, June 24th, 2019
  • Added Laced, Edged, Lionfish, Noxtide, Starmap, Constellation, Peacock, Ringlets.
  • Fixed bug that threw error whenever Underbelly was selected.

I will add eye types when someone has compiled enough data on their probabilities. I will add Gaolers and Gaoler genes eventually, but I don't have an ETA on that as I will need to make some significant changes to allow for the peculiarities of ancient breeds.

Please post bug reports or suggestions for improvement here.
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Oh, this is really helpful!

I've been trying to hatch some specific dragons and I'm beginning to realize that the pairs I'm trying to use to get them... don't have the highest probability of actually hatching them. Back to the AH with me.
Oh, this is really helpful!

I've been trying to hatch some specific dragons and I'm beginning to realize that the pairs I'm trying to use to get them... don't have the highest probability of actually hatching them. Back to the AH with me.
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LF dragons with the following colors: (will also consider near misses, unless otherwise noted)
Brick/Black/Sanguine
Midnight/Fog/Gloom
Gloom/Pumpkin/[blue- or green-range tert]
@Serpenthyne Yeah, unfortunately what this has taught me is that you need very close pairs to have more than a 10% chance of getting the hatchling you want even in a 5-egg nest. However, even with a low-probability hatchling you still may have a decent chance of getting it in three or four or five nests, although if you're trying to breed a Coatl or an Imp or something that's probably too long to wait.
@Serpenthyne Yeah, unfortunately what this has taught me is that you need very close pairs to have more than a 10% chance of getting the hatchling you want even in a 5-egg nest. However, even with a low-probability hatchling you still may have a decent chance of getting it in three or four or five nests, although if you're trying to breed a Coatl or an Imp or something that's probably too long to wait.
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Yeah, I have several semi-close pairs I rotate around - I breed one of them every week or so, but for most of them, the chances are a pretty long shot (less than a percent even). Knowing my luck, I'll get two colors that I want and the third will just be one off on the color wheel, haha. I have been trying different pairs and getting closer that way, so I guess that's something.
Yeah, I have several semi-close pairs I rotate around - I breed one of them every week or so, but for most of them, the chances are a pretty long shot (less than a percent even). Knowing my luck, I'll get two colors that I want and the third will just be one off on the color wheel, haha. I have been trying different pairs and getting closer that way, so I guess that's something.
Od5RvnN.png
LF dragons with the following colors: (will also consider near misses, unless otherwise noted)
Brick/Black/Sanguine
Midnight/Fog/Gloom
Gloom/Pumpkin/[blue- or green-range tert]
New update today that fixed a color range bug and updated Ripple and Current probabilities.
New update today that fixed a color range bug and updated Ripple and Current probabilities.
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lovely piece of coding!

...and so I found out my pair has a 0.19% probability of hatching my dream dragon -.-''
lovely piece of coding!

...and so I found out my pair has a 0.19% probability of hatching my dream dragon -.-''
a19GnnT.png .................. they/them 3IxnR89.png hopeless nerd 3IxnR89.png FR+9
Updated with new data from the new breeding rarity thread.

@NoAkei

Thanks! And yeah, I also keep being excited about a pair before plugging them into this and realizing that the probability is under 1%... XD
Updated with new data from the new breeding rarity thread.

@NoAkei

Thanks! And yeah, I also keep being excited about a pair before plugging them into this and realizing that the probability is under 1%... XD
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Updated with the addition of Smoke!
Updated with the addition of Smoke!
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Major update adding URL generation and color range probability calculation.
Major update adding URL generation and color range probability calculation.
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I noticed that when I go to the generated URL after loading the calculations, in the [i]Desired Hatchling[/i] section the page switches the selection from [b]Specific Color[/b] to [b]Color Range[/b]. Additionally under [i]Parent 2[/i] the tertiary gene is reset to [b]Basic[/b] from Underbelly, as well as the primary gene being reset to [b]Any[/b] from Iridescent under [i]Desired Hatchling[/i]. [url=http://breed.logik.li/iivhmcmiibhmumfiie!hm!um!]Example[/url] Parent 1 should be imperial, irishim crackle, jade/sky/sky. Parent 2 should be imperial, irishimbelly, shadow/sky/sky. Desired Hatchling should be [img]http://i11.photobucket.com/albums/a192/Fallaryn/Flight%20Rising/icon_female12.png[/img] imperial, irishimbelly, lavender/sky/sky (Specific Color). Thank you very much for taking the time to do this. ^_^
I noticed that when I go to the generated URL after loading the calculations, in the Desired Hatchling section the page switches the selection from Specific Color to Color Range. Additionally under Parent 2 the tertiary gene is reset to Basic from Underbelly, as well as the primary gene being reset to Any from Iridescent under Desired Hatchling.

Example

Parent 1 should be imperial, irishim crackle, jade/sky/sky.
Parent 2 should be imperial, irishimbelly, shadow/sky/sky.
Desired Hatchling should be icon_female12.png imperial, irishimbelly, lavender/sky/sky (Specific Color).

Thank you very much for taking the time to do this. ^_^
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