Flight Rising Discussion

Congrats to the Roundsey winners! Now it's time for everyone's favorite post-game show: hopping over to wolfram alpha and doing some MATH.

(insert math montage here)*

Roundsey collected 2,123,000 tickets last week! That means:**


YOUR CHANCE OF WINNING WITH 21,300 TICKETS (1% of all tickets, ~10milt):
YOUR CHANCE OF WINNING WITH 5,000 TICKETS (2.5milT):
YOUR CHANCE OF WINNING WITH 1,000 TICKETS (500kT):
YOUR CHANCE OF WINNING WITH 100 TICKETS (50kT):

NUMBER OF TICKETS NEEDED TO HAVE A 1% CHANCE OF GETTING ANY PRIZE:






*I did these calculations using both the simple way with fractions and exponents and the complicated way with binomial coefficients. If you want to see my work, ping me, or see this stackexchange post.

**Because winners are removed from the prize pools as they are drawn, your chances might be slightly higher for the more plentiful prizes depending on how many tickets the players ahead of you purchased.

OOH I LOVE NUMBERS. thank you for doing this math! it's fantastic to read <3

Wow, this is impressive. This shows me how futile my 20 tickets were. I wonder if anyone won with only one ticket?

@Akash -- it's totally possible! if someone does i hope they post it on the forums so we can all boggle at it.

(gambling is kind of a fruitless endeavor no matter how many tickets you buy, so why not have a little handful of tickets, yk?)

@/Akash Wrong ping, sorry!

You may want to change the ticket totals. I grabbed a screenshot of the minute before the raffle ended, the total was ~2,135,000 tickets.

It looks like the prizes are given clockwise from the top.

But I'm basing that on the dragon prize going to the first person on the winner's list (and FR appears to follow USA criteria, so it's unlikely that it would go from Top to Left counterclockwise).

I don't know if that's a useful observation for your calculations... but there you go.

oof i really did have no chance did i

(only bought 20 tix)

For the moment being I'll just do a nice solid 25 tickets each round. I may go for the bigger numbers when I'm not broke and saving extensively.

@Amut
The winners were posted in alphabetical order, rather than order of items won! Probably to try and disguise who won what a bit.

well
guess i'm never winning anything with 50 tickets

@Vendrus Where were the winners posted? o:

Edit:
NVM, found it! :D