hello! i was wondering if there anyone before has done the probability of hatching a double or a triple g1?
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TOPIC | g1 hatching probability
hello! i was wondering if there anyone before has done the probability of hatching a double or a triple g1?
@lorri12
Well, let's do that math! There are 177 colors and each has an equal likelihood of being chosen in each slot for a g1. For a double, that just means that one color has to match one of the other two - which is a 2/177 chance, or about 1.1%. Actually, the odds would be a little higher, since that 2/177 can apply to any one of the three colors and there's some more complex math there, but regardless, considering the number of dragons hatched on this site, that's not bad odds at all!
For a triple, that means that one color can be anything you want it to be, but the other two both have to match - that means two of the colors each have a 1/177 chance of being right. That's (1/177)*(1/177), or 1/31,329, or 0.0032%!
Well, let's do that math! There are 177 colors and each has an equal likelihood of being chosen in each slot for a g1. For a double, that just means that one color has to match one of the other two - which is a 2/177 chance, or about 1.1%. Actually, the odds would be a little higher, since that 2/177 can apply to any one of the three colors and there's some more complex math there, but regardless, considering the number of dragons hatched on this site, that's not bad odds at all!
For a triple, that means that one color can be anything you want it to be, but the other two both have to match - that means two of the colors each have a 1/177 chance of being right. That's (1/177)*(1/177), or 1/31,329, or 0.0032%!
@lorri12
Well, let's do that math! There are 177 colors and each has an equal likelihood of being chosen in each slot for a g1. For a double, that just means that one color has to match one of the other two - which is a 2/177 chance, or about 1.1%. Actually, the odds would be a little higher, since that 2/177 can apply to any one of the three colors and there's some more complex math there, but regardless, considering the number of dragons hatched on this site, that's not bad odds at all!
For a triple, that means that one color can be anything you want it to be, but the other two both have to match - that means two of the colors each have a 1/177 chance of being right. That's (1/177)*(1/177), or 1/31,329, or 0.0032%!
Well, let's do that math! There are 177 colors and each has an equal likelihood of being chosen in each slot for a g1. For a double, that just means that one color has to match one of the other two - which is a 2/177 chance, or about 1.1%. Actually, the odds would be a little higher, since that 2/177 can apply to any one of the three colors and there's some more complex math there, but regardless, considering the number of dragons hatched on this site, that's not bad odds at all!
For a triple, that means that one color can be anything you want it to be, but the other two both have to match - that means two of the colors each have a 1/177 chance of being right. That's (1/177)*(1/177), or 1/31,329, or 0.0032%!
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@leopardmask
oooh hmm ok so seeing your post reminded me what probability is, so like 177x177x177 for all the possibilities in rolling three colors = 5,545,233
and the probability of only getting two of the same color for one color would be like;
flaxen for example: flaxen/flaxen/z, where z has 176 different possibilities (all colors excluding flaxen)
then flaxen/y/flaxen, y also 176 possibilities
and x/flaxen/flaxen, x also 176 possibilities
so for one color it will be 176+176+176=528
and so 528/5545233 for one color
and for 177 colors its will be 528x177=93456
and so 93456/5545233 for all the colors
=0.01685
so like 1.685% approximately for a double maybe?
aaand maybe with that, since it will also be 5,545,233 total possibilities in rolling for triples, but only 177 outcomes that results in a triple
so 177/5545233
=0.00003192
=0.0032% approximately
(same answer as yours!)
(i'm not intending to be presumptuous, i'm sorry if i come off that way! i'm just a little confused)
also feel free to correct me if something seems wrong, i haven't done math in a while TT
oooh hmm ok so seeing your post reminded me what probability is, so like 177x177x177 for all the possibilities in rolling three colors = 5,545,233
and the probability of only getting two of the same color for one color would be like;
flaxen for example: flaxen/flaxen/z, where z has 176 different possibilities (all colors excluding flaxen)
then flaxen/y/flaxen, y also 176 possibilities
and x/flaxen/flaxen, x also 176 possibilities
so for one color it will be 176+176+176=528
and so 528/5545233 for one color
and for 177 colors its will be 528x177=93456
and so 93456/5545233 for all the colors
=0.01685
so like 1.685% approximately for a double maybe?
aaand maybe with that, since it will also be 5,545,233 total possibilities in rolling for triples, but only 177 outcomes that results in a triple
so 177/5545233
=0.00003192
=0.0032% approximately
(same answer as yours!)
(i'm not intending to be presumptuous, i'm sorry if i come off that way! i'm just a little confused)
also feel free to correct me if something seems wrong, i haven't done math in a while TT
@leopardmask
oooh hmm ok so seeing your post reminded me what probability is, so like 177x177x177 for all the possibilities in rolling three colors = 5,545,233
and the probability of only getting two of the same color for one color would be like;
flaxen for example: flaxen/flaxen/z, where z has 176 different possibilities (all colors excluding flaxen)
then flaxen/y/flaxen, y also 176 possibilities
and x/flaxen/flaxen, x also 176 possibilities
so for one color it will be 176+176+176=528
and so 528/5545233 for one color
and for 177 colors its will be 528x177=93456
and so 93456/5545233 for all the colors
=0.01685
so like 1.685% approximately for a double maybe?
aaand maybe with that, since it will also be 5,545,233 total possibilities in rolling for triples, but only 177 outcomes that results in a triple
so 177/5545233
=0.00003192
=0.0032% approximately
(same answer as yours!)
(i'm not intending to be presumptuous, i'm sorry if i come off that way! i'm just a little confused)
also feel free to correct me if something seems wrong, i haven't done math in a while TT
oooh hmm ok so seeing your post reminded me what probability is, so like 177x177x177 for all the possibilities in rolling three colors = 5,545,233
and the probability of only getting two of the same color for one color would be like;
flaxen for example: flaxen/flaxen/z, where z has 176 different possibilities (all colors excluding flaxen)
then flaxen/y/flaxen, y also 176 possibilities
and x/flaxen/flaxen, x also 176 possibilities
so for one color it will be 176+176+176=528
and so 528/5545233 for one color
and for 177 colors its will be 528x177=93456
and so 93456/5545233 for all the colors
=0.01685
so like 1.685% approximately for a double maybe?
aaand maybe with that, since it will also be 5,545,233 total possibilities in rolling for triples, but only 177 outcomes that results in a triple
so 177/5545233
=0.00003192
=0.0032% approximately
(same answer as yours!)
(i'm not intending to be presumptuous, i'm sorry if i come off that way! i'm just a little confused)
also feel free to correct me if something seems wrong, i haven't done math in a while TT
@lorri12 Ooh, yeah, coming at it from a different angle! An angle that makes the math on the doubles a little easier lol
@lorri12 Ooh, yeah, coming at it from a different angle! An angle that makes the math on the doubles a little easier lol
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