I decided to wanted to start looking into some of the trends following population and dom. Luckily, I was very fortunate to find @squidragon's thread, who has constant population data going all the way back to 2014. So I used that.
For reference, everything shown here has been done in python, and I have the code for it up on my github, if anyone is interested in seeing how these are made. (Please talk to me about my code I'm begging you please talk to me about code.) All plots in this post are also posted enlarged here plus some other plots that didn't quite make it into the body of the post.
I started by looking at a simple distribution of all the flight's population, currently:
which you know, is fun, but doesn't tell us much we don't already know. How did we grow, how did we change? That's more interesting.
orrr not. The problem is our population is always growing because we always have people joining. So I normalized by the total population
This shows something a little more interesting. Especially watching how Wind and Arcane/Shadow kinda of swapped places as largest flight and Earth is out here, doing it's own thing. You can also see this when you look at these normalized distributions for the first and the last recorded population.
This doesn't mean that people were in Wind moved to Shadow and Arcane necessarily though, they probably just attracted new users more strongly than Wind (I don't have individual user data, no matter how much I would really really like to have that).
This did get me really interested in Dom and how that may effect population, so looked at the dom record. Luckily, squidragon has been recording that too (Bless their soul), so I coded that from their notes. (It's not perfect though, sometimes the top 3 are recorded instead of just the winner, so my code counted all three as winning that week, and I'm far too lazy to fix that.)
We do run into the same problem with population though, were the number of dom wins Will increase with time because that's just how dom works. To work against this time dependence, I again, normalized by the number of total wins.
You can really see how Light and Earth become these dom powerhouses, and where Plague starts to dip off. I unfortunately don't have enough variables to try and numerically tell you why that happened, only that it did.
The only thing I do have access to, is population data, and that might be part of the answer. Because about the time we see Plague dip off, their relative population grows pretty dramatically. Maybe combined with you know inter-flight factors, it made it harder to win dom?
But also super interestingly, you can also maybe see dom jumpers if you squint, especially for Light and Earth.
Also, wanted to confirm that Earth's wild win record is at least partially result of weighting the active population. I have some info on battles, limited to their populations. A smaller flight is more likely to win. This is something I think we all more or less knew, but having a plot tell you that is nice. It also kinda explains why Earth has just been always top of the boards lately.
Alright that's all I have for you guys! I hope this was at least a little informative!
I also would also like to run some surveys in the future to look for stuff like Fodder price trends, most popular genes and breeds, that kind of stuff. So if that interests you, please let me know!
For reference, everything shown here has been done in python, and I have the code for it up on my github, if anyone is interested in seeing how these are made. (Please talk to me about my code I'm begging you please talk to me about code.) All plots in this post are also posted enlarged here plus some other plots that didn't quite make it into the body of the post.
I started by looking at a simple distribution of all the flight's population, currently:
This did get me really interested in Dom and how that may effect population, so looked at the dom record. Luckily, squidragon has been recording that too (Bless their soul), so I coded that from their notes. (It's not perfect though, sometimes the top 3 are recorded instead of just the winner, so my code counted all three as winning that week, and I'm far too lazy to fix that.)
We do run into the same problem with population though, were the number of dom wins Will increase with time because that's just how dom works. To work against this time dependence, I again, normalized by the number of total wins.
You can really see how Light and Earth become these dom powerhouses, and where Plague starts to dip off. I unfortunately don't have enough variables to try and numerically tell you why that happened, only that it did.
The only thing I do have access to, is population data, and that might be part of the answer. Because about the time we see Plague dip off, their relative population grows pretty dramatically. Maybe combined with you know inter-flight factors, it made it harder to win dom?
But also super interestingly, you can also maybe see dom jumpers if you squint, especially for Light and Earth.
Also, wanted to confirm that Earth's wild win record is at least partially result of weighting the active population. I have some info on battles, limited to their populations. A smaller flight is more likely to win. This is something I think we all more or less knew, but having a plot tell you that is nice. It also kinda explains why Earth has just been always top of the boards lately.
Alright that's all I have for you guys! I hope this was at least a little informative!
I also would also like to run some surveys in the future to look for stuff like Fodder price trends, most popular genes and breeds, that kind of stuff. So if that interests you, please let me know!
