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I'm just now realizing that my math was off in this post. Everyone (including me) would have a 33% chance of being scum. Idk why, but I forgot to account for the NK. There are 4 town members and 2 scum. Which... is not great...

So if we miselim today we lose? @RaccoonusDoodus

[quote name="@hotpants" date="2024-03-21 10:49:12" ] So if we miselim today we lose? @/RaccoonusDoodus [/quote] unable to do full catchup yet b/c classes but i feel like we would've been told if we were that close to endgame? also if im right, even if we miselim today, if the joat still has a vig shot and gets a maf in night phase we'd have one more day. still not a great position to be in tho.

[quote name="natsinabucket" date="2024-03-21 10:59:30" ] [quote name="@/hotpants" date="2024-03-21 10:49:12" ] So if we miselim today we lose? @/RaccoonusDoodus [/quote] unable to do full catchup yet b/c classes but i feel like we would've been told if we were that close to endgame? also if im right, even if we miselim today, if the joat still has a vig shot and gets a maf in night phase we'd have one more day. still not a great position to be in tho. [/quote] Yeah, I believe that we are at this point here. I don't the the JOAT used the kill shot yet (the fact that there has been only 1 kill per night) so while not great, it's not endgame if we miselim [s]still don't want to miselim though[/s]

[quote name="@hotpants" date="2024-03-21 07:57:41" ] I realised I have somehow spent an hour writing those two posts- I don't know how it takes me so long [emoji=wildclaw scared size=1] this is why I usually stick to impromptu analysis :P I'm going to take a break and come back to write some more observations later, I am curious about what Sage has been up to so I'll do that next, or Hiii , mostly because I haven't done an ISO on either yet [/quote] You're going to do an ISO of the NK? Is there something specific you are looking for?

Wait what I missed the Nk somehow [emoji=wildclaw scared size=1]

I was so focussed on Stick3 I missed it [emoji=wildclaw scared size=1] Let me have a look now

I'm really leaning towards a Hotpants/Lemon scum team, especially after this post.

"This actually makes me thing that maybe they arent so sus, because surely if lemontangerine was mafia, they would have just asked their buddy this? Please tell me what you think of that analysis, I wish there was a an emoji that was like 'mind-blowing' on here because that's how remembering this post feels"

This kind of feels like a stretch. Yeah, he technically could have asked his partner, but this question isn't a scummy or townie question IMO. I would say there should be other reasons to find someone townie/scummy at this point.

---

(Same post linked above)

"So, I'm back home and to preface this analysis, I will say that I'm assuming there was at least one member of the mafia team among those who voted for ChaoticPotato and the same for Stick3 and that I find it easiest to analyse by writing in a sort of stream of consciousness style as I do ISO's of each person and write my thoughts as they come. This does mean that I am reading the posts chronologically and therefore, I might change my thoughts upon reaching new posts etc."

I do truly believe there was a wolf member in the Potato vote. Two of the votes have been conf!town (Stick and Fearfax) so that leaves Ash and Lemon. While Ash did vote for Stick, Lemon didn't vote at all.

People who voted for Stick:

- Hiii (conf town)
- Terrify
- Ash
- Me

The only crossover between this vote is Ash, yet on this post, you stated that you were reading him as neutral/town leaning.

Following this logic, Ash couldn't be the wold member in the Potato vote, which leaves Lemon. And while you did put Lemon on your sus list, you seem to be trying to find posts of theirs to paint in a townie light.

Also following the logic, if you believe that there is a mafia member in both votes, would you pair me or Sage with Lemon since Lemon didn't vote Stick, and you are townreading Ash.

(Not pinging Hotpants because I just did in my last post and I don't want to bombard them with pings)

It may still be good to have a look through Hiii's reads I suppose and their interactions with others I genuinely can't believe I missed it that's like a new level of dumb from me

[quote name="@RaccoonusDoodus" date="2024-03-21 11:30:31" ] I'm really leaning towards a Hotpants/Lemon scum team, especially after this post. "This actually makes me thing that maybe they arent so sus, because surely if lemontangerine was mafia, they would have just asked their buddy this? Please tell me what you think of that analysis, I wish there was a an emoji that was like 'mind-blowing' on here because that's how remembering this post feels" This kind of feels like a stretch. Yeah, he technically could have asked his partner, but this question isn't a scummy or townie question IMO. I would say there should be other reasons to find someone townie/scummy at this point. (Same post linked above) "So, I'm back home and to preface this analysis, I will say that I'm assuming there was at least one member of the mafia team among those who voted for ChaoticPotato and the same for Stick3 and that I find it easiest to analyse by writing in a sort of stream of consciousness style as I do ISO's of each person and write my thoughts as they come. This does mean that I am reading the posts chronologically and therefore, I might change my thoughts upon reaching new posts etc." I do truly believe there was a wolf member in the Potato vote. Two of the votes have been conf!town (Stick and Fearfax) so that leaves Ash and Lemon. While Ash did vote for Stick, Lemon didn't vote at all. People who voted for Stick: - Hiii (conf town) - Terrify - Ash - Me The only crossover between this vote is Ash, yet on this post, you stated that you were reading him as neutral/town leaning. Following this logic, Ash couldn't be the wold member in the Potato vote, which leaves Lemon. And while you did put Lemon on your sus list, you seem to be trying to find posts of theirs to paint in a townie light. Also following the logic, if you believe that there is a mafia member in both votes, would you pair me or Sage with Lemon since Lemon didn't vote Stick, and you are townreading Ash. (Not pinging Hotpants because I just did in my last post and I don't want to bombard them with pings) [/quote] That was only something interesting I noticed while reading through all of the D1 posts when I was writing my Asherlark post, as I said I was writing in a steam of consciousness style so it's literally just everything that came to mind- I thought it might be a reach as I stated in my follow-up analysis of Asherlark where I said it could be a reverse psychology technique (if that makes sense) because if you're mafia you might want people t think 'I don't have a buddy I can ask this.' There I also clarified that I read way too far into things [s]In previous games I was told I do game theory style analysis so I'm trying to hold off on that[/s] I still stand by the rest of my post and made those two to initially analyse those I felt most suspicious about coming into the game to see if maybe I was tunnelling etc. I have changed my views on Asherlark and as I stated at the start of today I plan on voting for lemontangerine due to everything mentioned in my post. Please don't misrepresent what I wrote as the overwhelming majority of it was negative and I just put that towards the end as something small I thought might be interesting, hence why I asked for others opinions.