theres like five of these threads on the first page but mine has the raw numbers to prove it.
i have been keeping track of what chests drop since the event started. this is information collected from about 20 different accounts, so any chance that RNG being seeded by, say, one's account ID or other information and causing unique small biases is canceled out by the variety of my sample sources. when i collect data, i ask for the full number of chests opened in this session, and every single item one received from a chest be told to me.
here is my full, collected data, along with calculated percentage chance of each dropping, extrapolated from this data.
here's some summaries. it isn't pretty.
now, compare some of these numbers together. i, simple farmer only wanting to tend to my crops, will get maybe 170 chests this event. i have an 12% chance, maybe, of getting a single one of the most desired item in this event.
i'm posting this not only to whine endlessly but also to petition to the devs to rebalance chest drops. there is literally no reason for just under a full quarter of my recorded chest drops to be completely and utterly useless. there is literally no reason to make any of the desirable items a 2% chance. this current balance locks out casual players from getting any real, worthwhile rewards from this event; i personally have never gotten an egg, familiar or scroll from any chest so far, and going off my current data, i will be lucky to get any combination of the 3.
it's not too late to fix things this year. announcing an apology and a shift in the distribution rate of chest items would i do not think be balked by anyone except perhaps hardcore players who have already opened thousands of chests. it will be a large relief for anyone who does not have the time or patience to endlessly kill mimics (and, as an aside, may help congestion issues on the site, since it seems that the coliseum is the source of many of those). i am personally suggesting (this is a rough suggestion, given that since about a quarter of the time you get two items out of a chest and i dont have a mind for statistics enough to completely figure out how to factor that in) a 75/15/10 split between food items, trinkets and eggs/familiars/scrolls, with about even chances between each food item & each trinket, and, say, 3% chance for eggs, 6% chance for familiars, and 1% chance for scrolls. this keeps the same rough rarity as before, but with an actual chance to get something good.
(PS, any users reading this: i am still taking samples! pm me with lists of what you get from chests & how many chests you opened and iw ill add it to my list!)
i have been keeping track of what chests drop since the event started. this is information collected from about 20 different accounts, so any chance that RNG being seeded by, say, one's account ID or other information and causing unique small biases is canceled out by the variety of my sample sources. when i collect data, i ask for the full number of chests opened in this session, and every single item one received from a chest be told to me.
here is my full, collected data, along with calculated percentage chance of each dropping, extrapolated from this data.
here's some summaries. it isn't pretty.
- 98% chance to get a food item per chest. i'll repeat that. 98%. (the chances of getting each food item is very close to being equal.)
- 24% chance to get a trinket per chest. you know, the completely useless items only good for looking kinda cool and having an autosell price. you get one of those very close to a quarter of the time.
- 2% chance to get any one of an egg, any of the new familiars, or a scroll. the chance raises to 2.5% for any familiar instead of only the new ones. you will get something actually cool or interesting, on average, every 40-48 chests or so.
- let's break this down further. .76% chance to get an egg. that's 1 in 131 chests. i don't coli grind due to a general dislike of the coliseum and have not even dug up 131 chests from gathering so far. the chance to get an egg is so rare that i will likely not find one from digging (i am averaging 2-12 chests dug up a day, meaning at best i may pick up around 170 chests by the end of this event.)
- 1.6% chance to get any familiar; 1.2% chance to get a new familiar. you will get a familiar, on average, anywhere from 60 to 80 chests
- and finally, the part everyone is waiting for: a .07% chance of getting a nocturne scroll. you have seven hundreths of a percent of a chance to get a breed-change scroll for every chest you open. i believe only three of my sample collectors have actually gotten a scroll; one was extremely lucky, another has grinded for hours every single day. It will take you, on average, 1377 chests to get a nocturne scroll.
now, compare some of these numbers together. i, simple farmer only wanting to tend to my crops, will get maybe 170 chests this event. i have an 12% chance, maybe, of getting a single one of the most desired item in this event.
i'm posting this not only to whine endlessly but also to petition to the devs to rebalance chest drops. there is literally no reason for just under a full quarter of my recorded chest drops to be completely and utterly useless. there is literally no reason to make any of the desirable items a 2% chance. this current balance locks out casual players from getting any real, worthwhile rewards from this event; i personally have never gotten an egg, familiar or scroll from any chest so far, and going off my current data, i will be lucky to get any combination of the 3.
it's not too late to fix things this year. announcing an apology and a shift in the distribution rate of chest items would i do not think be balked by anyone except perhaps hardcore players who have already opened thousands of chests. it will be a large relief for anyone who does not have the time or patience to endlessly kill mimics (and, as an aside, may help congestion issues on the site, since it seems that the coliseum is the source of many of those). i am personally suggesting (this is a rough suggestion, given that since about a quarter of the time you get two items out of a chest and i dont have a mind for statistics enough to completely figure out how to factor that in) a 75/15/10 split between food items, trinkets and eggs/familiars/scrolls, with about even chances between each food item & each trinket, and, say, 3% chance for eggs, 6% chance for familiars, and 1% chance for scrolls. this keeps the same rough rarity as before, but with an actual chance to get something good.
(PS, any users reading this: i am still taking samples! pm me with lists of what you get from chests & how many chests you opened and iw ill add it to my list!)
