Suggestions

After reading the thread about the drop rate I'd like to suggest a different approach to the issue, as I agree that RNG is fickle and may be very disappointing, especially if you don't have many chests and don't really need most of the items from them - which is true for most casual players.

So, instead of changing the drop rate back I'd prefer seeing the direct exchange "chests to eggs", say 15 chests -> 1 egg (equivalent to 6.6% drop rate + sacrificing the potential loot from the chests).

That way:
- those who don't have many chests can still get the desired eggs (if they want them) without relying on RNG
- less "trash" items are generated which helps with their prices. The new items are already at LAH for their categories. Kinda sad to see them underappreciated and regarded as an upsetting thing to get
- those who have hundreds and thousands of chests would still likely be opening them as it'd be more profitable if you do it on larger scale, but overall it should allow to stablilize the overabundance of eggs and fix the prices which most resellers are upset about

Basically, it would allow people to choose guaranteed eggs in exchange for a lowered drop rate, if they prefer to avoid RNG and are only interested in eggs.

Thoughts? :D

I would say that it would probably have to be a higher rate, because this is a guaranteed egg.

I also think it would have to be higher to discourage the people who would normally allow their chests to simply disintegrate at the end from just turning them in for guaranteed eggs.

From what I can tell, there are a LOT of chests being generated, and with a guaranteed exchange, that would equal a LOT of eggs being generated, because it would remove the RNG barrier. (again with RNG, some people might get a higher than average return, but others would get a lower than average return, this would 'equalize' that, and give everyone the same return rate, which could, potentially, mean even more eggs overall)

Hmm... 20 to 1, to make it round 5% rate? I think that if it's dropped lower than that, the exchange would feel like somewhat of a scam - not only you're basically twice less likely to get an egg, you don't get other items either. Personally I'd definitely swap at 15:1 rate and most likely still would at 20:1, but not more that that.

I am not sure of the exact rate, but I also don't know how many chests come into circulation, I have generated over 200 myself since the beginning, and I am not really grinding that much (Actually in the coli, and finishing training up some dragons!) and I have seen others who are talking about thousands and thousands of chests.

But I do think it would need to be carefully balanced. I honestly don't know at what point I would stop opening chests, because I do need to make up for past NotNs (wasn't really into them) but I do think that at some point, even at 20:1 it would start to look good rather than have another eye book, or another vista (that can only be hoard sold).

Right now I am in the 'lookie!' stage, and I still need more orca necklaces (only got 1) so it would be a while for me, but for others, especially those who do keep on top of NotN, so don't need to worry about getting past familiars and items? That stage would pass much sooner than mine would. for people who are only after the eggs and don't care about the other, that stage would never happen.

If you have 15 chests and you open each one, I believe there's less than a 29% chance of not getting an egg.


Personally, seeing that stat, I wouldn't go for the trade, but I could see why others would. Less profit, but a guaranteed egg.

I also disagree with Jemadar's idea that this mechanic would increase the number of eggs overall. RNG isn't as cruel as we often joke, it really is just random. There's tens of thousands of chests being opened per day, and since the higher your sample size the lower your standard deviation, there probably really is an average of 8 eggs per every 100 chests opened across the entire site. If we suddenly remove a whole chunk of that sample size, we're going to get further from 8% of eggs, but we're probably still going to end up within 7.5% or 8.5% of your chest openings resulting in an egg. Combined with the 6.6% of eggs from this mechanism, there would almost certainly be a drop in eggs.


That being said, and I know you just pulled this number out of thin air so I understand this is all hypothetical, the chest market seems to be stabilizing at around 17-18g, sometimes dipping to 16g. 17x15=255, which is higher than the current LAH for nocturne eggs. The auction house is player regulated and all, but I'm having a hard time thinking of an exchange rate that wouldn't increase the number of eggs but would still be tempting for players. Using the LAH for eggs suggests that (210/17= 12.4 ) around a 12/13 chest to egg ratio would actually be tempting, but if it was 12:1 then that's over an 8.3% egg rate and 13:1 is 7.7%, which is lower, but not low enough to really seem profitable, especially when you consider that you could just sell 12 chests and wait for somebody to put up a slightly cheaper egg. (There were eggs yesterday for 200, so we know those prices will probably return by the end of the event)

I'm don't think that player-made markets should dictate staff decisions too much, but I think introducing a mechanic that the players themselves have already found a better way around would be the most effective decision.

Absolutely no support, sorry.

Players can get all the eggs they want simply by grinding and then selling their strange chests and buying either Nocturne or Elemental eggs with the profits.

There's no need to establish a site-sanctioned exchange rate between strange chests and eggs. Players can either gamble with RNG and try to get eggs without paying any (or at least less) money at all, or they can sell their chests and buy guaranteed eggs with the profits.

There is no reason to "baby" players who want to get more eggs for no risk when a method already exists to do so that neither sets-up an inflexible exchange rate nor risks dumping tons of eggs into the player market.

We also certainly don't need more dragons in the economy either which is assuredly what more eggs will result in.

(sorry for not replying to everyone, working, but just noticed and had to respond to that bit) [quote name="Twizz" date="2022-12-21 16:49:28" ] We also certainly don't need more dragons in the economy either which is assuredly what more eggs will result in. [/quote] But there would be less eggs/dragons, not more. If I sell, say, 1500 chests to buy the eggs, those chests won't disappear in the depth of AH, someone would buy and open them and with the 8% drop rate they would get 120 eggs (I mean, this is RNG, but we're talking about average) while by the direct exchange only 100 eggs would be generated.

I don't hate this idea.

I opened 2000 chests last year and it was SO MUCH STUFF. We honestly saw the effects of it on the auction house all year. Fodder apparel and fodder familiars both dropped to 2G, now, fodder familiars hit 2G frequently with the microholidays.. but apparel at 2G used to be an amazing deal and now its the new norm. It's not terrible or anything, but a clear change nonetheless.

I had so much stuff that this year I was hesitant to open chests again. Monkey brain won out and I did start opening chests.. but that's something to pause at for a moment. So much stuff you don't really want more stuff.

I agree it would have to work out to be a lower drop rate than opening them. Current rate is 12.5 chests opened per egg (that's 8%) For 5% its 20 chests, for 6% it's 16.67 chests. Settling at 15 chests does not seem unreasonable. Sure, if you buy your chests, it's expensive, this would purely benefit people who do not play the market and who just want some eggs.

No support. I don't want a site-sanctioned egg to chest ratio, especially since the ratios suggested here are higher than what I've been using.

no support. The egg rate has been just fine honestly. There's no reason to artificially boost it. I've gotten ten eggs already and I'm not even farming coli at all