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TOPIC | [NotN] Change egg rates back to 9%.
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Logically, I know that the difference between 8% and 9% is probably indistinguishable at the number of chests I’m opening. Emotionally, I’ve opened about 60 chests and have gotten zero eggs, and knowing the egg rate was dropped and potentially contributed to that zero eggs feels extremely bad. Sure, that’s primarily bad rng at work, but as someone who physically cannot grind out hundreds of eggs without sacrificing a full time job or sleep schedule it feels like I got straight up nerfed in order to curb the top 1% of people generating new eggs on the site.
Logically, I know that the difference between 8% and 9% is probably indistinguishable at the number of chests I’m opening. Emotionally, I’ve opened about 60 chests and have gotten zero eggs, and knowing the egg rate was dropped and potentially contributed to that zero eggs feels extremely bad. Sure, that’s primarily bad rng at work, but as someone who physically cannot grind out hundreds of eggs without sacrificing a full time job or sleep schedule it feels like I got straight up nerfed in order to curb the top 1% of people generating new eggs on the site.
It would be nice. Support
It would be nice. Support
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To talk fair about "how many eggs someone get and how many he expect collect during NOTN" And compair is it fair or not we should also compair how many chests someone got.

I mean if in old days someone got X chests and collect Y eggs from them and nowdays he got for same effort X+N chests and in the end got same ~Y eggs thus looks fair in perspective of entire event. But in moment - opening chests and saw less eggs per chest he feels dissupointment (heck he will feel it even if he ends up with Y+ eggs in the end of event only in reason strong in moment effect!)

Add2: and he for sure will feel dissupointment if start compair with last year! Year where rised number of chests dropped but was old egg chances!
To compair fair we should compair old "low chest drop with high egg drop" and new "high chest drop with low egg drop" situations.
To talk fair about "how many eggs someone get and how many he expect collect during NOTN" And compair is it fair or not we should also compair how many chests someone got.

I mean if in old days someone got X chests and collect Y eggs from them and nowdays he got for same effort X+N chests and in the end got same ~Y eggs thus looks fair in perspective of entire event. But in moment - opening chests and saw less eggs per chest he feels dissupointment (heck he will feel it even if he ends up with Y+ eggs in the end of event only in reason strong in moment effect!)

Add2: and he for sure will feel dissupointment if start compair with last year! Year where rised number of chests dropped but was old egg chances!
To compair fair we should compair old "low chest drop with high egg drop" and new "high chest drop with low egg drop" situations.

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I have a feeling that people are debating two different things - actual drop rates and player experience of those drop rates. And I think the biggest problem is actually that a random player cannot expect the spikes and drops in those rates to even out to 8% without opening somewhere between 1000 and 6000 chests, which, in turn, says that two random players will extremely likely to have two very different experiences, with one having as low as 3% and another as high as 13%. Last year I opened 450 chests and I counted myself among the "very active" players, so if I'm unlikely to reach that drop rate plateau, I'd say most of the players aren't either.

So the actual problem isn't whether 8 or 9 or 7 or 10 or whatever percentage the drop rate is, it's that it's unreachable for the individual player and that's bad from the individual gameplay experience. Egg prices are a sitewide gameplay part and have no effect on the individual gameplay experience, that is - current RNG generation mechanism is favouring the sitewide gameplay by "sacrificing" a good part of the players and their individual joy.
I have a feeling that people are debating two different things - actual drop rates and player experience of those drop rates. And I think the biggest problem is actually that a random player cannot expect the spikes and drops in those rates to even out to 8% without opening somewhere between 1000 and 6000 chests, which, in turn, says that two random players will extremely likely to have two very different experiences, with one having as low as 3% and another as high as 13%. Last year I opened 450 chests and I counted myself among the "very active" players, so if I'm unlikely to reach that drop rate plateau, I'd say most of the players aren't either.

So the actual problem isn't whether 8 or 9 or 7 or 10 or whatever percentage the drop rate is, it's that it's unreachable for the individual player and that's bad from the individual gameplay experience. Egg prices are a sitewide gameplay part and have no effect on the individual gameplay experience, that is - current RNG generation mechanism is favouring the sitewide gameplay by "sacrificing" a good part of the players and their individual joy.
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no support.
staff made this change for pretty understandable reasons, and a 1% nerf should not be that noticeable by *day 3* of the event; like others said, bad egg rates would most likely be from bad rng than the nerf
i have opened 856 chests and obtained 64 eggs, which is ~7.477%

i get that it may feel unfun since the more "casual", non-coli methods of obtaining chests got buffed (and with the egg rate lower, coli grinding is nerfed), but this is all just part of game balancing, and i'm glad that players (many of whom can't coli grind for a variety of reasons) don't have to feel obligated to coli grind to get a decent amount of chests from the event
eggs aren't supposed to be common, and maybe i'm biased because this is the first notn that i'm grinding (so each egg feels like a blessing to me), but keeping them fairly rare is a pretty important part of the game balance, imo
no support.
staff made this change for pretty understandable reasons, and a 1% nerf should not be that noticeable by *day 3* of the event; like others said, bad egg rates would most likely be from bad rng than the nerf
i have opened 856 chests and obtained 64 eggs, which is ~7.477%

i get that it may feel unfun since the more "casual", non-coli methods of obtaining chests got buffed (and with the egg rate lower, coli grinding is nerfed), but this is all just part of game balancing, and i'm glad that players (many of whom can't coli grind for a variety of reasons) don't have to feel obligated to coli grind to get a decent amount of chests from the event
eggs aren't supposed to be common, and maybe i'm biased because this is the first notn that i'm grinding (so each egg feels like a blessing to me), but keeping them fairly rare is a pretty important part of the game balance, imo
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[quote name="Xairathan" date="2022-12-20 18:51:39" ] [quote name="Twizz" date="2022-12-20 17:59:57" ] [quote name="gemajgall" date="2022-12-20 08:08:28" ] [quote name="Temora" date="2022-12-20 05:48:53" ] It’s a very slight nerf. I don’t think it necessarily needs to be reverted. Of course everyone would like higher egg rates but considering that chests have become easier to get over time it makes sense to try to balance it out. A 1% decrease is negligible. Any more than that and I’d say ok, maybe it’s an issue. But for all those who are saying they’re noticing getting less eggs than last year, i really think it might just be bad luck for the most part. Those who get bad luck with eggs are far more likely to post about it, s[u]o it makes it look like things are worse than they are. Others are having average or even good luck, they just don’t feel the need to post about it as much[/u]. You can scan the forums and see for yourself. Threads like this pop up every holiday, you’ll see it during festivals often, people always think the chest rates have been nerfed when it’s just luck. But now that there has been a small nerf to eggs people are up in arms. If Undel hadn’t outright said the egg rates had been changed I don’t think most people would have noticed. Of course I’m glad she did say so. But my point is things are really not that different. [/quote] Emphasis mine. I've lurked on this thread, and I have to admit I was wondering why people were posting because I've gotten ~5 eggs with basically only gathering and a few GE exchanges for chests. I figured ~5 eggs for the most casual of playing was doing pretty good. So the 1% change might just genuinely be bad luck. RNG just sometimes hates on certain people--and I do offer my condolences for that. EDIT: Agreed with putting relevant information in the very first NotN post so people can see it, and agreed with giving mimic powder a viable use. [/quote] This. No support from me until we have several more days worth of data from some more varied sources (in order to avoid confirmation bias). The players who are saying they saw the difference immediately are...well, mistaken at best or outright being misleading at worst. This is a drop percentage across the entire site, not the individual player. We need data points from thousands of players across the site over several days (at least a week I'd say) to see if there's any significant impact in the amount of eggs being generated. As other players have said, an 8% drop rate does not meant that for every 100 chests you open, you're guaranteed 8 eggs. At best, it means, that for every 100 eggs that [i]every player[/i] opens, 8 of those players will likely get an egg. And even then, that's not a guarantee, it's just the most probable outcome. I am begging players to maybe take a basic probability or stat course because every special event we have these same threads pop-up. If your enjoyment of the NOTN event is purely dependent on gathering tons and tons of eggs, I...truly do not know what to tell you other than that life can be disappointing and you're not always going to get what you want? It might be time to look to other ways of finding enjoyment. But absolutely there has not been enough data collected (from unbiased sources) to determine whether or not the 1% reduction has made any impact at all and anybody who is asserting otherwise is, again, unfortunately mistaken, sorry. So again, tl;dr no support for now. [/quote] Just wondering, how much of a data pool would you need to be satisfied? I have three data pools, 14 days of 2020 and 2021, and 2 days of 2022 (kept my day 3 records on a different sheet) 2022 - 6795 chests / 571 eggs / 0.08403237675 rate 2021 - 77769 chests / 7075 eggs / 0.09097455284 rate 2020 - 67527 chests / 6276 eggs / 0.09294060154 rate Admittedly, ~6.8k chests isn't a *large* sample size by site-wide means, but it's certainly also not "I opened 200 chests and got only 5 eggs" And I'm trying to figure out how to make the numbers express 'how many eggs I'm not getting' but math is not my strong point so I guess I'll just try it this way. [u]6795 chests * 0.0909 (2021 rate) = 617.6 eggs 6795 chests * 0.0929 (2020) rate) = 631.2 eggs Which is a deficit of anywhere from 46 to 60 eggs [/u] Not saying this proves anything definitively, but I feel like I can safely say there are less eggs [/quote] (underline mine) Just wanted to leap in here really quickly to say that this isn't exactly a fair comparision - since, really the only thing this shows us is that the staff told the truth about the 8% egg rate. To actually give this a fair shot, you're going to need to look at an entirely different set of data. In other words, ideally this year, you're going to be getting a lot more than 6795 chests, assuming you have the same playstyle as previous years. For example, since last roll over the only thing I've done is my daily tasks ([u]unawakened[/u] familiar bonding, gathering, pinkerton, 2 lots of baldwin + archaeology guy, and nests) and I've already gotten 30 chests. I'm not opening them yet, but if I did, and assuming the 8% rate holds, I'm going to get about 2 eggs per day for doing the absolute bare minimum. I know other players may have less or more familiars than me, but assuming that I'm average, let's just say maybe 2 eggs would be average? 2 x 3000 online now (in reality, a few more thousand users will be online later) and that's 6000 extra eggs across the entire site. If the drop rates hadn't been lowered, this would have been more like 3 eggs, or 9000 extra. Now, I don't know why you haven't gathered as many chests per day this year as in previous years, but I'm assuming that either you were busy or it was a personal choice. Personally, I'm getting an average of 4-5 extra eggs a day, once I've bonded with my awakened fams & done more brewing. If the egg rate hadn't been lowered, this would have been more like 5-6 extra eggs a day. Which is a lot of eggs. If you'd continued normal behaviour (i'm assuming you buy chests too?), you'd also probably be getting more eggs! Or maybe not - I don't think anybody knows yet what percentage of eggs will come from the coli vs the rest of the site!) Stats is hard, but it's important that you start out by looking at data that deals with your claim!
Xairathan wrote on 2022-12-20 18:51:39:
Twizz wrote on 2022-12-20 17:59:57:
gemajgall wrote on 2022-12-20 08:08:28:
Temora wrote on 2022-12-20 05:48:53:
It’s a very slight nerf. I don’t think it necessarily needs to be reverted. Of course everyone would like higher egg rates but considering that chests have become easier to get over time it makes sense to try to balance it out. A 1% decrease is negligible. Any more than that and I’d say ok, maybe it’s an issue. But for all those who are saying they’re noticing getting less eggs than last year, i really think it might just be bad luck for the most part. Those who get bad luck with eggs are far more likely to post about it, so it makes it look like things are worse than they are. Others are having average or even good luck, they just don’t feel the need to post about it as much. You can scan the forums and see for yourself. Threads like this pop up every holiday, you’ll see it during festivals often, people always think the chest rates have been nerfed when it’s just luck. But now that there has been a small nerf to eggs people are up in arms. If Undel hadn’t outright said the egg rates had been changed I don’t think most people would have noticed.

Of course I’m glad she did say so. But my point is things are really not that different.
Emphasis mine.

I've lurked on this thread, and I have to admit I was wondering why people were posting because I've gotten ~5 eggs with basically only gathering and a few GE exchanges for chests. I figured ~5 eggs for the most casual of playing was doing pretty good.

So the 1% change might just genuinely be bad luck. RNG just sometimes hates on certain people--and I do offer my condolences for that.

EDIT: Agreed with putting relevant information in the very first NotN post so people can see it, and agreed with giving mimic powder a viable use.

This. No support from me until we have several more days worth of data from some more varied sources (in order to avoid confirmation bias).

The players who are saying they saw the difference immediately are...well, mistaken at best or outright being misleading at worst.

This is a drop percentage across the entire site, not the individual player. We need data points from thousands of players across the site over several days (at least a week I'd say) to see if there's any significant impact in the amount of eggs being generated.

As other players have said, an 8% drop rate does not meant that for every 100 chests you open, you're guaranteed 8 eggs. At best, it means, that for every 100 eggs that every player opens, 8 of those players will likely get an egg. And even then, that's not a guarantee, it's just the most probable outcome.

I am begging players to maybe take a basic probability or stat course because every special event we have these same threads pop-up.

If your enjoyment of the NOTN event is purely dependent on gathering tons and tons of eggs, I...truly do not know what to tell you other than that life can be disappointing and you're not always going to get what you want? It might be time to look to other ways of finding enjoyment.

But absolutely there has not been enough data collected (from unbiased sources) to determine whether or not the 1% reduction has made any impact at all and anybody who is asserting otherwise is, again, unfortunately mistaken, sorry.

So again, tl;dr no support for now.

Just wondering, how much of a data pool would you need to be satisfied? I have three data pools, 14 days of 2020 and 2021, and 2 days of 2022 (kept my day 3 records on a different sheet)

2022 - 6795 chests / 571 eggs / 0.08403237675 rate

2021 - 77769 chests / 7075 eggs / 0.09097455284 rate

2020 - 67527 chests / 6276 eggs / 0.09294060154 rate

Admittedly, ~6.8k chests isn't a *large* sample size by site-wide means, but it's certainly also not "I opened 200 chests and got only 5 eggs"

And I'm trying to figure out how to make the numbers express 'how many eggs I'm not getting' but math is not my strong point so I guess I'll just try it this way.

6795 chests * 0.0909 (2021 rate) = 617.6 eggs
6795 chests * 0.0929 (2020) rate) = 631.2 eggs

Which is a deficit of anywhere from 46 to 60 eggs

Not saying this proves anything definitively, but I feel like I can safely say there are less eggs
(underline mine)
Just wanted to leap in here really quickly to say that this isn't exactly a fair comparision - since, really the only thing this shows us is that the staff told the truth about the 8% egg rate. To actually give this a fair shot, you're going to need to look at an entirely different set of data.

In other words, ideally this year, you're going to be getting a lot more than 6795 chests, assuming you have the same playstyle as previous years. For example, since last roll over the only thing I've done is my daily tasks (unawakened familiar bonding, gathering, pinkerton, 2 lots of baldwin + archaeology guy, and nests) and I've already gotten 30 chests. I'm not opening them yet, but if I did, and assuming the 8% rate holds, I'm going to get about 2 eggs per day for doing the absolute bare minimum. I know other players may have less or more familiars than me, but assuming that I'm average, let's just say maybe 2 eggs would be average? 2 x 3000 online now (in reality, a few more thousand users will be online later) and that's 6000 extra eggs across the entire site. If the drop rates hadn't been lowered, this would have been more like 3 eggs, or 9000 extra.

Now, I don't know why you haven't gathered as many chests per day this year as in previous years, but I'm assuming that either you were busy or it was a personal choice. Personally, I'm getting an average of 4-5 extra eggs a day, once I've bonded with my awakened fams & done more brewing. If the egg rate hadn't been lowered, this would have been more like 5-6 extra eggs a day. Which is a lot of eggs. If you'd continued normal behaviour (i'm assuming you buy chests too?), you'd also probably be getting more eggs! Or maybe not - I don't think anybody knows yet what percentage of eggs will come from the coli vs the rest of the site!)

Stats is hard, but it's important that you start out by looking at data that deals with your claim!
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[quote name="SCB" date="2022-12-20 17:56:55" ] All in all, you entirely missed the point of what I said.[/quote] I feel like I got what you were saying just fine. You have [i][u]400 Nocturne eggs[/u][/i] which you either bought outright, or created and introduced to the game's economy by opening treasure chests. And now you want to know if the 8% drop rate will have an effect on the number of eggs in circulation, because you want to sell your eggs at a profit. Which is a simple supply and demand type thing. And [i]my[/i] only point was that it feels a bit bad to be going multiple days (today included, now) to open a bunch of treasure chests and not get any eggs. That's really all it is. Players on bad luck streaks in general don't care about the statistics of it (outside of maybe "Why am I having such a bad time of this?"), even if you do. It's really simple: not getting something in a video game after many, many attempts at getting something feels lousy. It generally doesn't matter to someone in my situation that someone else somewhere got a lucky 16 eggs to make up for my 0 eggs. I understand that's how RNG and statistics work, but to me, as a player, the logic of it matters far, far less than the fact I feel bummed out. That's the only point I was trying to make. And I get that that's an invisible problem to you because you invest thousands of gems into getting as much supply as possible, but that's the part that seems irksome. It's Jeff Bezos complaining about the idea of Santa getting a gift to every kid because it eats into his profits. It's... weird. And a very disheartening "point" to see repeated over and over and over again, at the very least. You guys would rather have a "not everyone gets the prize" situation to try and rectify a supply and demand problem that been created and perpetuated by yourselves. And it's my contention that "self-perpetuated market forces" shouldn't be the primary concern when creating a "fun" Christmas event. Making sure every player can have as much fun as possible should be. The rest should take care of itself after that.
SCB wrote on 2022-12-20 17:56:55:
All in all, you entirely missed the point of what I said.

I feel like I got what you were saying just fine. You have 400 Nocturne eggs which you either bought outright, or created and introduced to the game's economy by opening treasure chests.

And now you want to know if the 8% drop rate will have an effect on the number of eggs in circulation, because you want to sell your eggs at a profit.

Which is a simple supply and demand type thing.

And my only point was that it feels a bit bad to be going multiple days (today included, now) to open a bunch of treasure chests and not get any eggs.

That's really all it is. Players on bad luck streaks in general don't care about the statistics of it (outside of maybe "Why am I having such a bad time of this?"), even if you do.

It's really simple: not getting something in a video game after many, many attempts at getting something feels lousy. It generally doesn't matter to someone in my situation that someone else somewhere got a lucky 16 eggs to make up for my 0 eggs. I understand that's how RNG and statistics work, but to me, as a player, the logic of it matters far, far less than the fact I feel bummed out.

That's the only point I was trying to make.

And I get that that's an invisible problem to you because you invest thousands of gems into getting as much supply as possible, but that's the part that seems irksome. It's Jeff Bezos complaining about the idea of Santa getting a gift to every kid because it eats into his profits. It's... weird. And a very disheartening "point" to see repeated over and over and over again, at the very least.

You guys would rather have a "not everyone gets the prize" situation to try and rectify a supply and demand problem that been created and perpetuated by yourselves.

And it's my contention that "self-perpetuated market forces" shouldn't be the primary concern when creating a "fun" Christmas event. Making sure every player can have as much fun as possible should be.

The rest should take care of itself after that.
[quote name="gemajgall" date="2022-12-20 19:27:27" ] So I don't really think it's fair to argue that this is a failure-based system because its RNG for chest drops, RNG for egg drops, and then RNG for XXX Gens1 - because those aren't a universally shared goal, especially the latter two, and especially the latter one. [/quote] No, look, that's a fair point - I didn't have the energy to go into that at the time, but it's absolutely true that the game is about player-driven goals. Really, all I was trying to point out was that multi-layered RNG has proven bad for games, in general. "Chances to get chances" almost never feels good, no matter the player goal. It's good that players have options - gameplay-earned purchases or real money - to bypass bad luck. But the "feel" of that isn't the same as "being the winner" yourself during the event. Anyway, enough harping on from me about this stuff. Bowing out of the conversation now to do other things. Hope everyone winds up having fun, no matter what "fun" means for you.
gemajgall wrote on 2022-12-20 19:27:27:
So I don't really think it's fair to argue that this is a failure-based system because its RNG for chest drops, RNG for egg drops, and then RNG for XXX Gens1 - because those aren't a universally shared goal, especially the latter two, and especially the latter one.

No, look, that's a fair point - I didn't have the energy to go into that at the time, but it's absolutely true that the game is about player-driven goals.

Really, all I was trying to point out was that multi-layered RNG has proven bad for games, in general. "Chances to get chances" almost never feels good, no matter the player goal.

It's good that players have options - gameplay-earned purchases or real money - to bypass bad luck. But the "feel" of that isn't the same as "being the winner" yourself during the event.

Anyway, enough harping on from me about this stuff. Bowing out of the conversation now to do other things.

Hope everyone winds up having fun, no matter what "fun" means for you.
I think it's also worth remembering that its not as if people can walk away from opening a chest with nothing. Every single chest guarantees a prize of some sort. And its not as if any of those prizes are truly bad--especially considering 100% of the chests entered the system for free either through being drops themselves or exchanged for items that were also obtained for free. So a lot of this complaint seems to stem from people not getting enough of what they consider to be the biggest prize...but, I mean, it is the biggest ticket prize for a reason, and the drop rates reflect that. I mean, at some point shouldn't we just enjoy this event that the staff worked hard to create and enjoy all of the free stuff we're able to earn?

I apologize if I stepped on any toes--this post is not meant to be like that at all.
I think it's also worth remembering that its not as if people can walk away from opening a chest with nothing. Every single chest guarantees a prize of some sort. And its not as if any of those prizes are truly bad--especially considering 100% of the chests entered the system for free either through being drops themselves or exchanged for items that were also obtained for free. So a lot of this complaint seems to stem from people not getting enough of what they consider to be the biggest prize...but, I mean, it is the biggest ticket prize for a reason, and the drop rates reflect that. I mean, at some point shouldn't we just enjoy this event that the staff worked hard to create and enjoy all of the free stuff we're able to earn?

I apologize if I stepped on any toes--this post is not meant to be like that at all.
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I am curious those all who talk about eggs they buy for profite reseling: what price you suppose reasonable for eggs at all?

nowdays eggs dropped to 150g (lowerest i remember) and 200 already too low to lure someone brew bogs egg (you'll get more just selling severed components instead of egg!)
I am curious those all who talk about eggs they buy for profite reseling: what price you suppose reasonable for eggs at all?

nowdays eggs dropped to 150g (lowerest i remember) and 200 already too low to lure someone brew bogs egg (you'll get more just selling severed components instead of egg!)

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