2020 Dom Summary
Hello! I'm brit and I don't post a lot outside of Water forums, but I made some charts and graphs to share with my flight - but figured they might be interesting for others so I'm going to share them here too. :) I really like numbers.
The main source of my data is dom watch's fabulous and fascinating archive. They have some really cool graphs in there too, but most of them lump in all results since the beginning of FR and I'm more interested in what is happening just recently.
Placement Data
So I guess the first thing to address is that Earth is an outlier (and we will see this again for total placements below). Mean here is 4.33 which is essentially how many dominances we'd all have if we split them equally across the year. But that is not how we do it, so it seems that in 2020 it was typical of a flight to dominate 3 times - and if you did more than that - nice job!
Update: Less pretty chart that shows the change from the 2019 data! We see a few modest gains, with the only really big changes being with Light and Nature.
This has been how things have been going over the past 5 years, in terms of first. I Think it's really interesting to see how flat or bumpy some flights' lines are!
Since we do have 3 dom board spots, we can also look at total placements. The mean here is 13, but because of our Earth outlier (earthlier?) I think a more appropriate measure of center or average would be the median, which is 10.
And we have the changes here as well. Light with less of a board presence than in the past, but still firmly in #2. Ice and Plague making more of an impact here this year.
What do these numbers mean?
Nothing in a one-on-one situation, obviously. Which is maybe why some people were surprised to see Wind beat Plague this year!
Frequent placing can be seen as a result of activity, whether that is organized pushing or a more consistent exalting output. Flights placing more than average in 2020 would be Earth, Light, Water, Plague, and Ice.
But this isn't the only way to measure activity...
Push Data
I don't have secret data on pushes that flights don't announce to dom watch, so, like, this is limited to that. Do let me know if I missed any - though!
From this data we see Water, Lightning, and Arcane publicly pushing the most frequently. Is this because they push more? Or that other flights don't bother announcing their profit pushes? Who knows! It could be both! But I would say with certainty that those 3 are hosting frequent organized pushes.
I also have some throwdown data. These are the dragons levels taken in from OOF raffles for all conquest battles post hibernal den - ranked!
I just grabbed these numbers from public raffle spreadsheets. Obviously we don't know other types of exalted dragon numbers (public buy, internal exalting) but this data I think is still fairly interesting.
Conclusions
I hope you found this interesting! I'd love to hear any thoughts or questions you have. I wouldn't feel comfortale making assumptions about flights' dom programs here, but I hope that this helps anyone who is curious about how often certain flights push/place. A lot of anecdote gets thrown around whenever people ask and I think it's good to supplement that with some stats. Happy 2021!
Hello! I'm brit and I don't post a lot outside of Water forums, but I made some charts and graphs to share with my flight - but figured they might be interesting for others so I'm going to share them here too. :) I really like numbers.
The main source of my data is dom watch's fabulous and fascinating archive. They have some really cool graphs in there too, but most of them lump in all results since the beginning of FR and I'm more interested in what is happening just recently.
Placement Data
So I guess the first thing to address is that Earth is an outlier (and we will see this again for total placements below). Mean here is 4.33 which is essentially how many dominances we'd all have if we split them equally across the year. But that is not how we do it, so it seems that in 2020 it was typical of a flight to dominate 3 times - and if you did more than that - nice job!
Update: Less pretty chart that shows the change from the 2019 data! We see a few modest gains, with the only really big changes being with Light and Nature.
This has been how things have been going over the past 5 years, in terms of first. I Think it's really interesting to see how flat or bumpy some flights' lines are!
Since we do have 3 dom board spots, we can also look at total placements. The mean here is 13, but because of our Earth outlier (earthlier?) I think a more appropriate measure of center or average would be the median, which is 10.
And we have the changes here as well. Light with less of a board presence than in the past, but still firmly in #2. Ice and Plague making more of an impact here this year.
What do these numbers mean?
Nothing in a one-on-one situation, obviously. Which is maybe why some people were surprised to see Wind beat Plague this year!
Frequent placing can be seen as a result of activity, whether that is organized pushing or a more consistent exalting output. Flights placing more than average in 2020 would be Earth, Light, Water, Plague, and Ice.
But this isn't the only way to measure activity...
Push Data
I don't have secret data on pushes that flights don't announce to dom watch, so, like, this is limited to that. Do let me know if I missed any - though!
From this data we see Water, Lightning, and Arcane publicly pushing the most frequently. Is this because they push more? Or that other flights don't bother announcing their profit pushes? Who knows! It could be both! But I would say with certainty that those 3 are hosting frequent organized pushes.
I also have some throwdown data. These are the dragons levels taken in from OOF raffles for all conquest battles post hibernal den - ranked!
Water v Ice 2 (2019) - 582k
Light v Fire (2020) - 527k
Fire v Nature (2020) - 501k
Wind v Plague (2020) - 477k
Nature v Arcane (2019) - 425k
Light v Fire (2020) - 527k
Fire v Nature (2020) - 501k
Wind v Plague (2020) - 477k
Nature v Arcane (2019) - 425k
I just grabbed these numbers from public raffle spreadsheets. Obviously we don't know other types of exalted dragon numbers (public buy, internal exalting) but this data I think is still fairly interesting.
Conclusions
I hope you found this interesting! I'd love to hear any thoughts or questions you have. I wouldn't feel comfortale making assumptions about flights' dom programs here, but I hope that this helps anyone who is curious about how often certain flights push/place. A lot of anecdote gets thrown around whenever people ask and I think it's good to supplement that with some stats. Happy 2021!