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TOPIC | Dom - Average active exalters over time
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@Sylvandyr I'm here with part two of the info!! [img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/498845335439802368/521410156433768489/unknown.png[/img] Here's the breakdown of who is fighting more or less and whether they're winning. [img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/498845335439802368/521410350965325855/unknown.png[/img] And here's whether they are fighting smaller or larger flights. [img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/498845335439802368/521410476203048990/unknown.png[/img] To compare the two You'll notice already that the outlier here is going to be Lightning. Other flights largely are more likely to win when they fight a larger flight (of course beating smaller flights can and has been done !!) But lightning?? Lightning punches tiny flights and laughs, probably, [img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/498845335439802368/521410871046438925/unknown.png[/img] [img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/498845335439802368/521410975208046607/unknown.png[/img] Actually it's fascinating to me that Lightning is the outlier because it was also the outlier when I surveyed activity because it had a strikingly low retention rate compared to other flights (aka active population may be smaller than we think). But sample size from that was too low for me to do more than speculate
@Sylvandyr I'm here with part two of the info!!

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Here's the breakdown of who is fighting more or less and whether they're winning.

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And here's whether they are fighting smaller or larger flights.

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To compare the two

You'll notice already that the outlier here is going to be Lightning. Other flights largely are more likely to win when they fight a larger flight (of course beating smaller flights can and has been done !!) But lightning?? Lightning punches tiny flights and laughs, probably,

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Actually it's fascinating to me that Lightning is the outlier because it was also the outlier when I surveyed activity because it had a strikingly low retention rate compared to other flights (aka active population may be smaller than we think). But sample size from that was too low for me to do more than speculate
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squid/winter | FR+3 | they/them | spelled squidra-gon (like octagon)
I support any kind of overhaul in dom. I'm one of those people who lost interest in dom, because I know what's gonna happen.

So, the way I'm thinking is: Since I'm from Light, we're only going to get challenged by Earth, and we're going to lose, so what's the point? My way of thinking might be wrong, but it is what it is and it has discouraged me from dom.
I support any kind of overhaul in dom. I'm one of those people who lost interest in dom, because I know what's gonna happen.

So, the way I'm thinking is: Since I'm from Light, we're only going to get challenged by Earth, and we're going to lose, so what's the point? My way of thinking might be wrong, but it is what it is and it has discouraged me from dom.
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Happiness can be found,
even in the darkest of times,
if one only remembers to turn on the light.

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@squidragon
This and your activity survey are pretty interesting to me! I've been under the impression for quite a while now that Lightning had a tiny number of active people compared to our overall population, especially compared with other flights.

I started casually keeping track about a year ago, and realized it was pretty normal to read through a forum thread and see 10 Light people, 15 Arcane people, a few Earth people, a bunch of Shadow people, etc. and then one lone spark. Our forums are pretty dead, too.
@squidragon
This and your activity survey are pretty interesting to me! I've been under the impression for quite a while now that Lightning had a tiny number of active people compared to our overall population, especially compared with other flights.

I started casually keeping track about a year ago, and realized it was pretty normal to read through a forum thread and see 10 Light people, 15 Arcane people, a few Earth people, a bunch of Shadow people, etc. and then one lone spark. Our forums are pretty dead, too.
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Support from me, this is my favorite of the dom suggestions I've seen so far. I don't think that any one solution can fix everything, but this is a good step to even the playing field between flights with relatively low exalting lairs vs relatively high (and actually allow people to conquest against light and earth again).

@butcherbaby
I may have misread your post, if so, sorry- but I believe the way 'funneling' is used here is that instead of each participating player training and exalting their dragons, everyone trains dragons and then funnels them to one lair to get exalted, making it so that flight has less active exalters according to the system and therefore they get a lot more points per dragon.
Support from me, this is my favorite of the dom suggestions I've seen so far. I don't think that any one solution can fix everything, but this is a good step to even the playing field between flights with relatively low exalting lairs vs relatively high (and actually allow people to conquest against light and earth again).

@butcherbaby
I may have misread your post, if so, sorry- but I believe the way 'funneling' is used here is that instead of each participating player training and exalting their dragons, everyone trains dragons and then funnels them to one lair to get exalted, making it so that flight has less active exalters according to the system and therefore they get a lot more points per dragon.
@PremiumHugs Thank you! And again, with the system structured as it currently is, that just seems like the sensible thing to do- once again OPTIMIZING the current system rather than “gaming” it. (Just noting here this whole post is general to the thread and not just you.)

There is DEFINITELY something wrong with any Dom calculation system where MORE people exalting dragons to help with Dom is harmful to that flight’s efforts, while LESS people exalting is helpful, even if the exact same amount of dragons are exalted in each scenario.
A system like that (as it is now) *encourages* funneling, and *discourages* community wide Dom partipation. A good system would encourage all of a flight’s players to pitch in, encourage solo exalters & other lone wolves, encourage newbs who may not be able to train many dragons. The current system does not and I feel that the proposed solution will not either, and will just inspire further anti-casual exalter sentiment, with people coming down even harder on those who exalt for a living, or those who do it occasionally or randomly. If the time period for calculating active exalted is unknown, that adds to the chaos, as people will be pressured (by other flight members) to NEVER exalt unless it’s during a push, or to only sell their fodder (under market level) to other specific flight members (so basically funneling ALL THE TIME instead of just during pushes), and we won’t just have people griping about ‘freeloaders’ (when they have zero idea whatsoever if those people contributed to Dom or not), next people will be griping about “Dom traitors” that continue to exalt regularly to fund their gameplay or those that just exalt whenever they feel the need. Human nature can get really ugly at times, and we don’t need a system that’s going to keep fueling the worst aspects of it to come out.

We DO need a system that makes it so if the Poop Flight exalts 100 dragons, they are going to count for the same amount of points whether they were exalted by a single Poop Flight member or 100 members who exalted a single dragon each. THAT is fair, and encourages the entire community to participate. A flight shouldn’t be penalized because many people want to contribute to Dom! Nor should it be penalized because some people in that flight will be exalting dragons all the time.

As for OOF support, I said it before, and so have others- the vast majority of people will support whichever flight is giving the biggest payout/best raffle prizes in their public buy- PERIOD. Whether large or small, the flights that can raise those funds/prizes are the ones that are going to be getting the most OOF support- PERIOD.

Aaaand....I honestly don’t think the system needs to be tweaked so that flights that do not have a strong Dom savvy culture have a better chance at winning. If they want to win, then they need to themselves develop and encourage a strong Dom savvy culture, not have the system gamed in their favor because it’s not easy for them to win without putting in the same effort as a Dom oriented flight. All that sounds like to me is bellyaching by a bunch of sore losers who are mad that another flight is putting in more hard work to win. Again, either work to increase your flights Dom efforts, or move to a consistently Dom winning flight, if being top at Dom is so important to you, instead of blaming others for your lack of effort.
@PremiumHugs Thank you! And again, with the system structured as it currently is, that just seems like the sensible thing to do- once again OPTIMIZING the current system rather than “gaming” it. (Just noting here this whole post is general to the thread and not just you.)

There is DEFINITELY something wrong with any Dom calculation system where MORE people exalting dragons to help with Dom is harmful to that flight’s efforts, while LESS people exalting is helpful, even if the exact same amount of dragons are exalted in each scenario.
A system like that (as it is now) *encourages* funneling, and *discourages* community wide Dom partipation. A good system would encourage all of a flight’s players to pitch in, encourage solo exalters & other lone wolves, encourage newbs who may not be able to train many dragons. The current system does not and I feel that the proposed solution will not either, and will just inspire further anti-casual exalter sentiment, with people coming down even harder on those who exalt for a living, or those who do it occasionally or randomly. If the time period for calculating active exalted is unknown, that adds to the chaos, as people will be pressured (by other flight members) to NEVER exalt unless it’s during a push, or to only sell their fodder (under market level) to other specific flight members (so basically funneling ALL THE TIME instead of just during pushes), and we won’t just have people griping about ‘freeloaders’ (when they have zero idea whatsoever if those people contributed to Dom or not), next people will be griping about “Dom traitors” that continue to exalt regularly to fund their gameplay or those that just exalt whenever they feel the need. Human nature can get really ugly at times, and we don’t need a system that’s going to keep fueling the worst aspects of it to come out.

We DO need a system that makes it so if the Poop Flight exalts 100 dragons, they are going to count for the same amount of points whether they were exalted by a single Poop Flight member or 100 members who exalted a single dragon each. THAT is fair, and encourages the entire community to participate. A flight shouldn’t be penalized because many people want to contribute to Dom! Nor should it be penalized because some people in that flight will be exalting dragons all the time.

As for OOF support, I said it before, and so have others- the vast majority of people will support whichever flight is giving the biggest payout/best raffle prizes in their public buy- PERIOD. Whether large or small, the flights that can raise those funds/prizes are the ones that are going to be getting the most OOF support- PERIOD.

Aaaand....I honestly don’t think the system needs to be tweaked so that flights that do not have a strong Dom savvy culture have a better chance at winning. If they want to win, then they need to themselves develop and encourage a strong Dom savvy culture, not have the system gamed in their favor because it’s not easy for them to win without putting in the same effort as a Dom oriented flight. All that sounds like to me is bellyaching by a bunch of sore losers who are mad that another flight is putting in more hard work to win. Again, either work to increase your flights Dom efforts, or move to a consistently Dom winning flight, if being top at Dom is so important to you, instead of blaming others for your lack of effort.
Dappervolk ID #27689
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[quote name="butcherbaby" date="2018-12-09 23:29:44" ] Aaaand....I honestly don’t think the system needs to be tweaked so that flights that do not have a strong Dom savvy culture have a better chance at winning. If they want to win, then they need to themselves develop and encourage a strong Dom savvy culture, not have the system gamed in their favor because it’s not easy for them to win without putting in the same effort as a Dom oriented flight. All that sounds like to me is bellyaching by a bunch of sore losers who are mad that another flight is putting in more hard work to win. Again, either work to increase your flights Dom efforts, or move to a consistently Dom winning flight, if being top at Dom is so important to you, instead of blaming others for your lack of effort. [/quote] First of all, [i]wow[/i]. "Moving to another flight" is not a solution, because Dom is (presumably) a site mechanic for everyone, not for some select flights, so this wouldn't be a solution even if the concerns might have been unfounded. This "solution" on its own presumes that Dom is not for every flight, which in turn makes me ask why then, when signing up, newbies are not told to pick flight A, B, C... for Dom and others if they won't want to rake part in Dom?.. Oversimplifying the complaints into "no Dom culture", "not putting in enough effort" are also very weak arguments, mostly because you cannot know how much effort other flights put in or quantify "culture". All flights presumably contain people both into and not into Dom, and neither side is better than the other, so sequestering Dom people in one and not into Dom people in another flight based on their "culture" seems irrational.
butcherbaby wrote on 2018-12-09 23:29:44:
Aaaand....I honestly don’t think the system needs to be tweaked so that flights that do not have a strong Dom savvy culture have a better chance at winning. If they want to win, then they need to themselves develop and encourage a strong Dom savvy culture, not have the system gamed in their favor because it’s not easy for them to win without putting in the same effort as a Dom oriented flight. All that sounds like to me is bellyaching by a bunch of sore losers who are mad that another flight is putting in more hard work to win. Again, either work to increase your flights Dom efforts, or move to a consistently Dom winning flight, if being top at Dom is so important to you, instead of blaming others for your lack of effort.

First of all, wow.

"Moving to another flight" is not a solution, because Dom is (presumably) a site mechanic for everyone, not for some select flights, so this wouldn't be a solution even if the concerns might have been unfounded. This "solution" on its own presumes that Dom is not for every flight, which in turn makes me ask why then, when signing up, newbies are not told to pick flight A, B, C... for Dom and others if they won't want to rake part in Dom?..

Oversimplifying the complaints into "no Dom culture", "not putting in enough effort" are also very weak arguments, mostly because you cannot know how much effort other flights put in or quantify "culture".

All flights presumably contain people both into and not into Dom, and neither side is better than the other, so sequestering Dom people in one and not into Dom people in another flight based on their "culture" seems irrational.
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On the suggestion, I like it as an experiment or a mid-term change, even though I think it won't change much in the long run.

As far as I noticed, most active people exalt a dragon or two occasionally and the "exalting is evil and I won't do it" make up a minority of people. So with a long enough interval, the "exalted in the last X" should more or less be equal to "active". On the other hand, I agree that introducing a quota to meet is unwanted and implies as if you aren't really into Dom if you cannot meet it.

I don't think that funneling would be an issue - because it would mean that whoever wants to funnel, mustn't exalt anything in a month which sounds too hard to keep track and very easy to fail at it. Especially if there are hundreds of players, so several people tunneling might not even be worth the extra hassle.
On the suggestion, I like it as an experiment or a mid-term change, even though I think it won't change much in the long run.

As far as I noticed, most active people exalt a dragon or two occasionally and the "exalting is evil and I won't do it" make up a minority of people. So with a long enough interval, the "exalted in the last X" should more or less be equal to "active". On the other hand, I agree that introducing a quota to meet is unwanted and implies as if you aren't really into Dom if you cannot meet it.

I don't think that funneling would be an issue - because it would mean that whoever wants to funnel, mustn't exalt anything in a month which sounds too hard to keep track and very easy to fail at it. Especially if there are hundreds of players, so several people tunneling might not even be worth the extra hassle.
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@squidragon Thank you for putting this together!

I know that there were lots of battles before DW started tracking them, but it's hard to dig through to find them, and I don't trust my memory to get them all.

One thing I find interesting is that, even though Earth has the highest win rate for the data set (Dec 2014 - present), they have had a disproportionately large amount of battles compared to some other Dom-heavy flights. They're tied with Water in 2nd for most number of battles. They've battled 6 unique flights in this data set: Wind, Water, Light, Plague, Nature, Ice* (impromptu only). If we don't count the impromptu Ice battle, Earth has had arranged opportunities with 5 unique flights.

In contrast, Light and Plague are tied in last place for amount of battles for the tracked time period. (I know Light's been trying hard to get opponents, but they've had trouble getting challengers.) It's also interesting to note that in the tracked data set, 100% of Plague's battles were against unique opponents, while Light has only received willing challenges from 3 different flights (Nature, Plague, Earth).

Out of Earth (5), Light (3), and Plague (6), Plague has received the most unique deliberate challengers and Light the least.

Somehow, Earth, with its 100% win rate for battles tracked since Dec 2014, received so many willing challengers. I think that's changed now, and the number of Earth challengers over time may drop.

We may be witnessing here the powerful effects of "people's perceptions of flights in Dominance" on "the willingness of flights to challenge other flights". Plague and Light have received a lot of notoriety as feared Dominance opponents in the past, but somehow Earth managed to escape the radar, and flights continued to challenge them in spite of their 100% conquest win rate* over this data set. It's taken over 3 years for the rumors to catch up to Earth. Meanwhile, Lightning also has a terrifyingly high win % for conquest battles over the past 3 years, but they've also somehow escaped notoriety.

I think part of this effect has to do with presence during "off-weeks"; flights with an ingrained Coli culture tend to get noticed each week near the top of the board, so they remain in people's minds. Plague used to do this frequently, then Light, then Earth. (Although Earth has never really been near the bottom of the board on non-conquest-weeks, previously Plague and Light were slightly more noticeable about placing for non-battles.) I've seen comments over the past few years of people not taking Earth seriously as a Dominance flight, but I don't think from the results that anyone can claim that this is actually true. However, perceptions seem heavily influenced, especially after the Beastclans update, by people watching "who places in the top 3 spots over time". Now that Earth is placing first more often on non-conquest weeks and is currently contending for quadruple Dominance, there's definitely been a perception shift. (I think the perception shift was surprisingly delayed.)

*Small disclaimer: Earth has lost battles before in the past (second Battle Royale to Light, and once very early in the site to Shadow), but those happened before Dom Watch tracked them. Still a very high conquest win rate in comparison to any other flight except Lightning.
@squidragon Thank you for putting this together!

I know that there were lots of battles before DW started tracking them, but it's hard to dig through to find them, and I don't trust my memory to get them all.

One thing I find interesting is that, even though Earth has the highest win rate for the data set (Dec 2014 - present), they have had a disproportionately large amount of battles compared to some other Dom-heavy flights. They're tied with Water in 2nd for most number of battles. They've battled 6 unique flights in this data set: Wind, Water, Light, Plague, Nature, Ice* (impromptu only). If we don't count the impromptu Ice battle, Earth has had arranged opportunities with 5 unique flights.

In contrast, Light and Plague are tied in last place for amount of battles for the tracked time period. (I know Light's been trying hard to get opponents, but they've had trouble getting challengers.) It's also interesting to note that in the tracked data set, 100% of Plague's battles were against unique opponents, while Light has only received willing challenges from 3 different flights (Nature, Plague, Earth).

Out of Earth (5), Light (3), and Plague (6), Plague has received the most unique deliberate challengers and Light the least.

Somehow, Earth, with its 100% win rate for battles tracked since Dec 2014, received so many willing challengers. I think that's changed now, and the number of Earth challengers over time may drop.

We may be witnessing here the powerful effects of "people's perceptions of flights in Dominance" on "the willingness of flights to challenge other flights". Plague and Light have received a lot of notoriety as feared Dominance opponents in the past, but somehow Earth managed to escape the radar, and flights continued to challenge them in spite of their 100% conquest win rate* over this data set. It's taken over 3 years for the rumors to catch up to Earth. Meanwhile, Lightning also has a terrifyingly high win % for conquest battles over the past 3 years, but they've also somehow escaped notoriety.

I think part of this effect has to do with presence during "off-weeks"; flights with an ingrained Coli culture tend to get noticed each week near the top of the board, so they remain in people's minds. Plague used to do this frequently, then Light, then Earth. (Although Earth has never really been near the bottom of the board on non-conquest-weeks, previously Plague and Light were slightly more noticeable about placing for non-battles.) I've seen comments over the past few years of people not taking Earth seriously as a Dominance flight, but I don't think from the results that anyone can claim that this is actually true. However, perceptions seem heavily influenced, especially after the Beastclans update, by people watching "who places in the top 3 spots over time". Now that Earth is placing first more often on non-conquest weeks and is currently contending for quadruple Dominance, there's definitely been a perception shift. (I think the perception shift was surprisingly delayed.)

*Small disclaimer: Earth has lost battles before in the past (second Battle Royale to Light, and once very early in the site to Shadow), but those happened before Dom Watch tracked them. Still a very high conquest win rate in comparison to any other flight except Lightning.
Bonsai pixels (tofu and tea motif) by miirshroom
@Sylvandyr thank you for your insights! This turned out to be more interesting to me than I expected and I'm glad I was curious.

I wonder if even having this information available alone could make a difference in who gets challenges hmmm
@Sylvandyr thank you for your insights! This turned out to be more interesting to me than I expected and I'm glad I was curious.

I wonder if even having this information available alone could make a difference in who gets challenges hmmm
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squid/winter | FR+3 | they/them | spelled squidra-gon (like octagon)
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