@Sylvandyr This sounds like a good motivator for me to finish up the dom vs population size data I was going to pull. Gonna grab every conquest and the sizes of the winner and the loser to see how much correlation there is (and if that correlation is bigger the larger the difference) and if that has changed over time :o
TOPIC | Dom - Average active exalters over time
@Sylvandyr This sounds like a good motivator for me to finish up the dom vs population size data I was going to pull. Gonna grab every conquest and the sizes of the winner and the loser to see how much correlation there is (and if that correlation is bigger the larger the difference) and if that has changed over time :o
re Discouraging "lowloaders": This would also exacerbate the elim issue. Someone with Elim is naturally going to be able to exalt more dragons in less time. People who can't exalt above a certain threshold are discouraged from exalting the month before a push, even if that's their primary means of income. The gap between the haves and have-nots grows. Therefore, Elim suddenly becomes a necessity and not (as others have dubbed it) a "luxury stone."
re Discouraging "lowloaders": This would also exacerbate the elim issue. Someone with Elim is naturally going to be able to exalt more dragons in less time. People who can't exalt above a certain threshold are discouraged from exalting the month before a push, even if that's their primary means of income. The gap between the haves and have-nots grows. Therefore, Elim suddenly becomes a necessity and not (as others have dubbed it) a "luxury stone."
It takes Twelve Years for one Imperial pair to produce a Primal-eyed offspring of a specific sex. Goal-based breeding is dead.
@squidragon That’d be interesting! The early 2013-2014 era would be more volatile. Hatchlings had a bigger impact than they do now due to past differences in dragon supply, Coli accessibility, and available participants. Shadow defeated Earth in the early years by supplementing their exalting with a good portion of hatchlings, but nowadays, thanks to increased training output and participation, trying to exalt a large portion of hatchlings is way too expensive to do.
Off the top of my head, 2014-2016 Plague also sometimes defeated smaller opponents like Water and Fire (1W, 1L).
I’m not sure if a correlation can be shown, given the unevenness of Dominance appeal between different flights and the bandwagon effect, but I’m interested in the results! I’d love a ping if you complete the analysis please. :) (No rush)
Off the top of my head, 2014-2016 Plague also sometimes defeated smaller opponents like Water and Fire (1W, 1L).
I’m not sure if a correlation can be shown, given the unevenness of Dominance appeal between different flights and the bandwagon effect, but I’m interested in the results! I’d love a ping if you complete the analysis please. :) (No rush)
@squidragon That’d be interesting! The early 2013-2014 era would be more volatile. Hatchlings had a bigger impact than they do now due to past differences in dragon supply, Coli accessibility, and available participants. Shadow defeated Earth in the early years by supplementing their exalting with a good portion of hatchlings, but nowadays, thanks to increased training output and participation, trying to exalt a large portion of hatchlings is way too expensive to do.
Off the top of my head, 2014-2016 Plague also sometimes defeated smaller opponents like Water and Fire (1W, 1L).
I’m not sure if a correlation can be shown, given the unevenness of Dominance appeal between different flights and the bandwagon effect, but I’m interested in the results! I’d love a ping if you complete the analysis please. :) (No rush)
Off the top of my head, 2014-2016 Plague also sometimes defeated smaller opponents like Water and Fire (1W, 1L).
I’m not sure if a correlation can be shown, given the unevenness of Dominance appeal between different flights and the bandwagon effect, but I’m interested in the results! I’d love a ping if you complete the analysis please. :) (No rush)
@Sylvandyr Pulled some charts but I only used post-dom watch conception (end of 2014 forward) because it was easiest to find. I've also only collected contested conquest information.
About a year ago I looked at [url=http://www1.flightrising.com/forums/gde/1194822/83#post_28095974]# of overall wins based on flight size[/url] and didn't fully see a correlation - but that incorporated off-weeks and profit pushes and such (and of course it doesn't really show Earth's sudden dom excitement like we're seeing now because it is old.) It's also very difficult for me to repeat that kind of chart with open reg making transfers vs new players hard to distinguish.
However this is a lot stronger than I expected. All of this is sitting around on the [url=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JpWSlIWE9TnQ0dCq5oe2xsJ7g2dy5PYFmvpT2o2rqGE/edit?usp=sharing]flight populations spreadsheet[/url] if you want full info :D
[img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/162803676023357440/520614925010468865/unknown.png[/img]
The smaller flight has a Hefty win advantage in a simple chart, but that doesn't quite display the vast set of differences between some flights and isn't necessarily useful info.
[img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/498845335439802368/520627481871646720/unknown.png[/img]
Here's a comparison of the size of the winning flight vs the size of the losing flight in conquests over time. There's a lot less conquest happening overall since the height in 2015-ish. Flights all around are slowing down and a lot of this is so hard to judge now since so many of the battles are Earth and Earth is Tiny.
[img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/162803676023357440/520623448473731073/unknown.png[/img]
The differences are getting bigger, but what intrigues me is that even when flights are close in size, the smaller ones are still winning more often. (Some of this might be because Light is traditionally smaller overall but has had a strong active dom/transfer population.)
[img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/162803676023357440/520626287207776271/unknown.png[/img]
In this one I pulled it by percentage size so that we can kind of compare across times more evenly.
The four larger difference wins that stand out here are (I believe) defeats of Water & Fire by flights like Plague & Ice.
Earth is undefeated in this data set.
A big problem I can see is that it's hard to gauge active vs inactive populations. I suspect that some of these are deceptive because some flights have a higher percentage of active users than others (some big flights like shadow and arcane get a lot of newbie accounts that ditch and never play again (or at all beyond progen creation) - although in times like these with open reg, that still is going to influence them.) Meanwhile there was a while there where everyone wanted to do a vacation in Light or Ice for the nice eye color & active community.
I've tried approximating active sizes before but it's been rather a while now and even then it was a small-ish data set of 10k random accounts. Want to do it again some time but it's a time-consuming process to crawl through 10k user pages,, :')
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Anyway I don't claim to really have any insight into problems and solutions but I do like pulling numbers for things haha.
@Sylvandyr Pulled some charts but I only used post-dom watch conception (end of 2014 forward) because it was easiest to find. I've also only collected contested conquest information.
About a year ago I looked at # of overall wins based on flight size and didn't fully see a correlation - but that incorporated off-weeks and profit pushes and such (and of course it doesn't really show Earth's sudden dom excitement like we're seeing now because it is old.) It's also very difficult for me to repeat that kind of chart with open reg making transfers vs new players hard to distinguish.
However this is a lot stronger than I expected. All of this is sitting around on the flight populations spreadsheet if you want full info :D
The smaller flight has a Hefty win advantage in a simple chart, but that doesn't quite display the vast set of differences between some flights and isn't necessarily useful info.
Here's a comparison of the size of the winning flight vs the size of the losing flight in conquests over time. There's a lot less conquest happening overall since the height in 2015-ish. Flights all around are slowing down and a lot of this is so hard to judge now since so many of the battles are Earth and Earth is Tiny.
The differences are getting bigger, but what intrigues me is that even when flights are close in size, the smaller ones are still winning more often. (Some of this might be because Light is traditionally smaller overall but has had a strong active dom/transfer population.)
In this one I pulled it by percentage size so that we can kind of compare across times more evenly.
The four larger difference wins that stand out here are (I believe) defeats of Water & Fire by flights like Plague & Ice.
Earth is undefeated in this data set.
A big problem I can see is that it's hard to gauge active vs inactive populations. I suspect that some of these are deceptive because some flights have a higher percentage of active users than others (some big flights like shadow and arcane get a lot of newbie accounts that ditch and never play again (or at all beyond progen creation) - although in times like these with open reg, that still is going to influence them.) Meanwhile there was a while there where everyone wanted to do a vacation in Light or Ice for the nice eye color & active community.
I've tried approximating active sizes before but it's been rather a while now and even then it was a small-ish data set of 10k random accounts. Want to do it again some time but it's a time-consuming process to crawl through 10k user pages,, :')
---
Anyway I don't claim to really have any insight into problems and solutions but I do like pulling numbers for things haha.
About a year ago I looked at # of overall wins based on flight size and didn't fully see a correlation - but that incorporated off-weeks and profit pushes and such (and of course it doesn't really show Earth's sudden dom excitement like we're seeing now because it is old.) It's also very difficult for me to repeat that kind of chart with open reg making transfers vs new players hard to distinguish.
However this is a lot stronger than I expected. All of this is sitting around on the flight populations spreadsheet if you want full info :D
The smaller flight has a Hefty win advantage in a simple chart, but that doesn't quite display the vast set of differences between some flights and isn't necessarily useful info.
Here's a comparison of the size of the winning flight vs the size of the losing flight in conquests over time. There's a lot less conquest happening overall since the height in 2015-ish. Flights all around are slowing down and a lot of this is so hard to judge now since so many of the battles are Earth and Earth is Tiny.
The differences are getting bigger, but what intrigues me is that even when flights are close in size, the smaller ones are still winning more often. (Some of this might be because Light is traditionally smaller overall but has had a strong active dom/transfer population.)
In this one I pulled it by percentage size so that we can kind of compare across times more evenly.
The four larger difference wins that stand out here are (I believe) defeats of Water & Fire by flights like Plague & Ice.
Earth is undefeated in this data set.
A big problem I can see is that it's hard to gauge active vs inactive populations. I suspect that some of these are deceptive because some flights have a higher percentage of active users than others (some big flights like shadow and arcane get a lot of newbie accounts that ditch and never play again (or at all beyond progen creation) - although in times like these with open reg, that still is going to influence them.) Meanwhile there was a while there where everyone wanted to do a vacation in Light or Ice for the nice eye color & active community.
I've tried approximating active sizes before but it's been rather a while now and even then it was a small-ish data set of 10k random accounts. Want to do it again some time but it's a time-consuming process to crawl through 10k user pages,, :')
---
Anyway I don't claim to really have any insight into problems and solutions but I do like pulling numbers for things haha.
[quote]the "I exalt because a carpal tunnel specialist wants to see how much damage I can do to my wrists in one ninety-day period" people[/quote]
HEY DON'T CALL ME OUT LIKE THIS XDDDDD
ANYWAY, as with others, I like this as a first/intermediate step towards better dom rebalancing. I share the concerns others have expressed about potential toxicity towards casual exalters, however. But I do think now that the site is in open reg and the FR population is growing (and bringing with it certain issues such as ever-increasing price of Elim) the devs need to consider that doing dom the same way it's been done for years is not really viable and it needs some kind of overhaul. An overhaul would be easier to implement in stages and by test runs - the suggestion Sylvandyr made would make dom a bit more fair than it is right now.
Quote:
the "I exalt because a carpal tunnel specialist wants to see how much damage I can do to my wrists in one ninety-day period" people
HEY DON'T CALL ME OUT LIKE THIS XDDDDD
ANYWAY, as with others, I like this as a first/intermediate step towards better dom rebalancing. I share the concerns others have expressed about potential toxicity towards casual exalters, however. But I do think now that the site is in open reg and the FR population is growing (and bringing with it certain issues such as ever-increasing price of Elim) the devs need to consider that doing dom the same way it's been done for years is not really viable and it needs some kind of overhaul. An overhaul would be easier to implement in stages and by test runs - the suggestion Sylvandyr made would make dom a bit more fair than it is right now.
pings off | plz no random friend requests/PMs/profile comments
I don't know how this factors in exalters who tend to send OOF. I am one of those trainers -- I like badges a lot or I have friends in an OOF push or just want to enter fest raffles (or get gem payouts at average exalt rates). or foddart or merc. I am not motivated a ton by dragons have to sit on PAs as a reason to self-exalt as I train my lair and then do something else and see that time as a forced break.
I worry a 4 week snapshot might be too small? I probably send 80 percent of my dragons OOF during fest raffle pushes, probably about 50 percent to an average or +250 over average buy with badges. (and then might not exalt very many dragons during a festival week).
I worry a 4 week snapshot might be too small? I probably send 80 percent of my dragons OOF during fest raffle pushes, probably about 50 percent to an average or +250 over average buy with badges. (and then might not exalt very many dragons during a festival week).
I don't know how this factors in exalters who tend to send OOF. I am one of those trainers -- I like badges a lot or I have friends in an OOF push or just want to enter fest raffles (or get gem payouts at average exalt rates). or foddart or merc. I am not motivated a ton by dragons have to sit on PAs as a reason to self-exalt as I train my lair and then do something else and see that time as a forced break.
I worry a 4 week snapshot might be too small? I probably send 80 percent of my dragons OOF during fest raffle pushes, probably about 50 percent to an average or +250 over average buy with badges. (and then might not exalt very many dragons during a festival week).
I worry a 4 week snapshot might be too small? I probably send 80 percent of my dragons OOF during fest raffle pushes, probably about 50 percent to an average or +250 over average buy with badges. (and then might not exalt very many dragons during a festival week).
@squidragon Thanks for the analysis! :)
I checked out the spreadsheet and there seems to be a potential sorting oopsie in the Dom Data V2 tab; the Battle Name doesn't seem to match up with the listed participating flights. The other columns look right though, and I'm guessing that's where you got the data from, so it probably doesn't affect anything. Just thought I'd let you know in case you went back and wondered what happened. :D
As for the data, that's a huge portion of "smaller flight wins", wow. One additional analysis that I'd be interested in seeing is a list of battles by participant: perhaps individual flight wins and their battles fought? We might be able to see that X mid-sized flight always fought larger flights, or Y small flight had a mixture of small / large flight opponents, etc. and see if there was any sort of pattern, such as "Z flight always won regardless of opponent size", or "Size did not seem to be a consistent factor in B flight's battles".
I agree with you, though, "active population" is too hard to judge. :( We don't know if certain flights have a greater propensity for abandoned accounts than others, either.
I checked out the spreadsheet and there seems to be a potential sorting oopsie in the Dom Data V2 tab; the Battle Name doesn't seem to match up with the listed participating flights. The other columns look right though, and I'm guessing that's where you got the data from, so it probably doesn't affect anything. Just thought I'd let you know in case you went back and wondered what happened. :D
As for the data, that's a huge portion of "smaller flight wins", wow. One additional analysis that I'd be interested in seeing is a list of battles by participant: perhaps individual flight wins and their battles fought? We might be able to see that X mid-sized flight always fought larger flights, or Y small flight had a mixture of small / large flight opponents, etc. and see if there was any sort of pattern, such as "Z flight always won regardless of opponent size", or "Size did not seem to be a consistent factor in B flight's battles".
I agree with you, though, "active population" is too hard to judge. :( We don't know if certain flights have a greater propensity for abandoned accounts than others, either.
@squidragon Thanks for the analysis! :)
I checked out the spreadsheet and there seems to be a potential sorting oopsie in the Dom Data V2 tab; the Battle Name doesn't seem to match up with the listed participating flights. The other columns look right though, and I'm guessing that's where you got the data from, so it probably doesn't affect anything. Just thought I'd let you know in case you went back and wondered what happened. :D
As for the data, that's a huge portion of "smaller flight wins", wow. One additional analysis that I'd be interested in seeing is a list of battles by participant: perhaps individual flight wins and their battles fought? We might be able to see that X mid-sized flight always fought larger flights, or Y small flight had a mixture of small / large flight opponents, etc. and see if there was any sort of pattern, such as "Z flight always won regardless of opponent size", or "Size did not seem to be a consistent factor in B flight's battles".
I agree with you, though, "active population" is too hard to judge. :( We don't know if certain flights have a greater propensity for abandoned accounts than others, either.
I checked out the spreadsheet and there seems to be a potential sorting oopsie in the Dom Data V2 tab; the Battle Name doesn't seem to match up with the listed participating flights. The other columns look right though, and I'm guessing that's where you got the data from, so it probably doesn't affect anything. Just thought I'd let you know in case you went back and wondered what happened. :D
As for the data, that's a huge portion of "smaller flight wins", wow. One additional analysis that I'd be interested in seeing is a list of battles by participant: perhaps individual flight wins and their battles fought? We might be able to see that X mid-sized flight always fought larger flights, or Y small flight had a mixture of small / large flight opponents, etc. and see if there was any sort of pattern, such as "Z flight always won regardless of opponent size", or "Size did not seem to be a consistent factor in B flight's battles".
I agree with you, though, "active population" is too hard to judge. :( We don't know if certain flights have a greater propensity for abandoned accounts than others, either.
I think this idea is worth trying at least. It would honestly be hard or maybe even impossible to balance dom in a way without issues.
I think this idea is worth trying at least. It would honestly be hard or maybe even impossible to balance dom in a way without issues.
If this were to use active exalters rather than flight population to determine a flight's dom bonus, I'd be all for it. Use a 12 month running average. There's no way any flight is going to be able to game those numbers. Anything would be better than the current assumption that if X flight is 3 times bigger than Y flight then X flight has 3 times as many doing exalting. This would even things out for some of the larger flights with lower dom participation so they'd have a shot and lets be honest, would also even things out on the other end so Earth, Light, and Nature weren't essentially unbeatable against the other flights. I'm in Light and would love to see us able to have good competative battles with some of the other flights. Battles with lots of board flips are fun. Total once sided fights with one flight getting steamrolled? Not so much.
If this were to use active exalters rather than flight population to determine a flight's dom bonus, I'd be all for it. Use a 12 month running average. There's no way any flight is going to be able to game those numbers. Anything would be better than the current assumption that if X flight is 3 times bigger than Y flight then X flight has 3 times as many doing exalting. This would even things out for some of the larger flights with lower dom participation so they'd have a shot and lets be honest, would also even things out on the other end so Earth, Light, and Nature weren't essentially unbeatable against the other flights. I'm in Light and would love to see us able to have good competative battles with some of the other flights. Battles with lots of board flips are fun. Total once sided fights with one flight getting steamrolled? Not so much.
I really like this idea!
I must admit that I have been a bit annoyed at the recent events with Dom such as small flights like Earth being in the top 3 all the time. (please don't take this as "Earth is annoying" they just happen to be the flight that currently has the best Dom setup).
As a member of Fire I sometimes feel that we have an unfair advantage as well. Though our member difference isn't as large as it would be with Earth it is still there. I know there were a few people talking about this when our upcoming conquest was announced. A system that only accounts for active exalters would at least make the numbers more balanced even if it doesn't solve all the issues.
I must admit that I have been a bit annoyed at the recent events with Dom such as small flights like Earth being in the top 3 all the time. (please don't take this as "Earth is annoying" they just happen to be the flight that currently has the best Dom setup).
As a member of Fire I sometimes feel that we have an unfair advantage as well. Though our member difference isn't as large as it would be with Earth it is still there. I know there were a few people talking about this when our upcoming conquest was announced. A system that only accounts for active exalters would at least make the numbers more balanced even if it doesn't solve all the issues.
I really like this idea!
I must admit that I have been a bit annoyed at the recent events with Dom such as small flights like Earth being in the top 3 all the time. (please don't take this as "Earth is annoying" they just happen to be the flight that currently has the best Dom setup).
As a member of Fire I sometimes feel that we have an unfair advantage as well. Though our member difference isn't as large as it would be with Earth it is still there. I know there were a few people talking about this when our upcoming conquest was announced. A system that only accounts for active exalters would at least make the numbers more balanced even if it doesn't solve all the issues.
I must admit that I have been a bit annoyed at the recent events with Dom such as small flights like Earth being in the top 3 all the time. (please don't take this as "Earth is annoying" they just happen to be the flight that currently has the best Dom setup).
As a member of Fire I sometimes feel that we have an unfair advantage as well. Though our member difference isn't as large as it would be with Earth it is still there. I know there were a few people talking about this when our upcoming conquest was announced. A system that only accounts for active exalters would at least make the numbers more balanced even if it doesn't solve all the issues.