Cross-posting a little thing :3
[quote=squidragon]Pulled some charts but I only used post-dom watch conception (end of 2014 forward) because it was easiest to find. I've also only collected contested conquest information.
About a year ago I looked at [url=http://www1.flightrising.com/forums/gde/1194822/83#post_28095974]# of overall wins based on flight size[/url] and didn't fully see a correlation - but that incorporated off-weeks and profit pushes and such (and of course it doesn't really show Earth's sudden dom excitement like we're seeing now because it is old.) It's also very difficult for me to repeat that kind of chart with open reg making transfers vs new players hard to distinguish.
However this is a lot stronger than I expected. All of this is sitting around on the [url=https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JpWSlIWE9TnQ0dCq5oe2xsJ7g2dy5PYFmvpT2o2rqGE/edit?usp=sharing]flight populations spreadsheet[/url] if you want full info :D
[img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/162803676023357440/520614925010468865/unknown.png[/img]
The smaller flight has a Hefty win advantage in a simple chart, but that doesn't quite display the vast set of differences between some flights and isn't necessarily useful info.
[img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/498845335439802368/520627481871646720/unknown.png[/img]
Here's a comparison of the size of the winning flight vs the size of the losing flight in conquests over time. There's a lot less conquest happening overall since the height in 2015-ish. Flights all around are slowing down and a lot of this is so hard to judge now since so many of the battles are Earth and Earth is Tiny.
[img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/162803676023357440/520623448473731073/unknown.png[/img]
The differences are getting bigger, but what intrigues me is that even when flights are close in size, the smaller ones are still winning more often. (Some of this might be because Light is traditionally smaller overall but has had a strong active dom/transfer population.)
[img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/162803676023357440/520626287207776271/unknown.png[/img]
In this one I pulled it by percentage size so that we can kind of compare across times more evenly.
The four larger difference wins that stand out here are (I believe) defeats of Water & Fire by flights like Plague & Ice.
Earth is undefeated in this data set.
A big problem I can see is that it's hard to gauge active vs inactive populations. I suspect that some of these are deceptive because some flights have a higher percentage of active users than others (some big flights like shadow and arcane get a lot of newbie accounts that ditch and never play again (or at all beyond progen creation) - although in times like these with open reg, that still is going to influence them.) Meanwhile there was a while there where everyone wanted to do a vacation in Light or Ice for the nice eye color & active community.
I've tried approximating active sizes before but it's been rather a while now and even then it was a small-ish data set of 10k random accounts. Want to do it again some time but it's a time-consuming process to crawl through 10k user pages,, :')
---
Anyway I don't claim to really have any insight into problems and solutions but I do like pulling numbers for things haha.[/quote]
Cross-posting a little thing :3
squidragon wrote:
Pulled some charts but I only used post-dom watch conception (end of 2014 forward) because it was easiest to find. I've also only collected contested conquest information.
About a year ago I looked at
# of overall wins based on flight size and didn't fully see a correlation - but that incorporated off-weeks and profit pushes and such (and of course it doesn't really show Earth's sudden dom excitement like we're seeing now because it is old.) It's also very difficult for me to repeat that kind of chart with open reg making transfers vs new players hard to distinguish.
However this is a lot stronger than I expected. All of this is sitting around on the
flight populations spreadsheet if you want full info :D
The smaller flight has a Hefty win advantage in a simple chart, but that doesn't quite display the vast set of differences between some flights and isn't necessarily useful info.
Here's a comparison of the size of the winning flight vs the size of the losing flight in conquests over time. There's a lot less conquest happening overall since the height in 2015-ish. Flights all around are slowing down and a lot of this is so hard to judge now since so many of the battles are Earth and Earth is Tiny.
The differences are getting bigger, but what intrigues me is that even when flights are close in size, the smaller ones are still winning more often. (Some of this might be because Light is traditionally smaller overall but has had a strong active dom/transfer population.)
In this one I pulled it by percentage size so that we can kind of compare across times more evenly.
The four larger difference wins that stand out here are (I believe) defeats of Water & Fire by flights like Plague & Ice.
Earth is undefeated in this data set.
A big problem I can see is that it's hard to gauge active vs inactive populations. I suspect that some of these are deceptive because some flights have a higher percentage of active users than others (some big flights like shadow and arcane get a lot of newbie accounts that ditch and never play again (or at all beyond progen creation) - although in times like these with open reg, that still is going to influence them.) Meanwhile there was a while there where everyone wanted to do a vacation in Light or Ice for the nice eye color & active community.
I've tried approximating active sizes before but it's been rather a while now and even then it was a small-ish data set of 10k random accounts. Want to do it again some time but it's a time-consuming process to crawl through 10k user pages,, :')
---
Anyway I don't claim to really have any insight into problems and solutions but I do like pulling numbers for things haha.
squid/winter | FR+3 | they/them | spelled squidra-gon (like octagon)
Part two!
[quote]I'm here with part two of the info!!
[img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/498845335439802368/521410156433768489/unknown.png[/img]
Here's the breakdown of who is fighting more or less and whether they're winning.
[img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/498845335439802368/521410350965325855/unknown.png[/img]
And here's whether they are fighting smaller or larger flights.
[img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/498845335439802368/521410476203048990/unknown.png[/img]
To compare the two
You'll notice already that the outlier here is going to be Lightning. Other flights largely are more likely to win when they fight a larger flight (of course beating smaller flights can and has been done !!) But lightning?? Lightning punches tiny flights and laughs, probably,
[img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/498845335439802368/521410871046438925/unknown.png[/img]
[img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/498845335439802368/521410975208046607/unknown.png[/img]
Actually it's fascinating to me that Lightning is the outlier because it was also the outlier when I surveyed activity because it had a strikingly low retention rate compared to other flights (aka active population may be smaller than we think). But sample size from that was too low for me to do more than speculate[/quote]
[url=http://www1.flightrising.com/forums/sug/2584746/7#post_36695396]link to Sylv quote (below)[/url]
[quote=Sylvandyr]Thank you for putting this together!
I know that there were lots of battles before DW started tracking them, but it's hard to dig through to find them, and I don't trust my memory to get them all.
One thing I find interesting is that, even though Earth has the highest win rate for the data set (Dec 2014 - present), they have had a disproportionately large amount of battles compared to some other Dom-heavy flights. They're tied with Water in 2nd for most number of battles. They've battled 6 unique flights in this data set: Wind, Water, Light, Plague, Nature, Ice* (impromptu only). If we don't count the impromptu Ice battle, Earth has had arranged opportunities with 5 unique flights.
In contrast, Light and Plague are tied in last place for amount of battles for the tracked time period. (I know Light's been trying hard to get opponents, but they've had trouble getting challengers.) It's also interesting to note that in the tracked data set, 100% of Plague's battles were against unique opponents, while Light has only received willing challenges from 3 different flights (Nature, Plague, Earth).
Out of Earth (5), Light (3), and Plague (6), Plague has received the most unique deliberate challengers and Light the least.
Somehow, Earth, with its 100% win rate for battles tracked since Dec 2014, received so many willing challengers. I think that's changed now, and the number of Earth challengers over time may drop.
We may be witnessing here the powerful effects of "people's perceptions of flights in Dominance" on "the willingness of flights to challenge other flights". Plague and Light have received a lot of notoriety as feared Dominance opponents in the past, but somehow Earth managed to escape the radar, and flights continued to challenge them in spite of their 100% conquest win rate* over this data set. It's taken over 3 years for the rumors to catch up to Earth. Meanwhile, Lightning also has a terrifyingly high win % for conquest battles over the past 3 years, but they've also somehow escaped notoriety.
I think part of this effect has to do with presence during "off-weeks"; flights with an ingrained Coli culture tend to get noticed each week near the top of the board, so they remain in people's minds. Plague used to do this frequently, then Light, then Earth. (Although Earth has never really been near the bottom of the board on non-conquest-weeks, previously Plague and Light were slightly more noticeable about placing for non-battles.) I've seen comments over the past few years of people not taking Earth seriously as a Dominance flight, but I don't think from the results that anyone can claim that this is actually true. However, perceptions seem heavily influenced, especially after the Beastclans update, by people watching "who places in the top 3 spots over time". Now that Earth is placing first more often on non-conquest weeks and is currently contending for quadruple Dominance, there's definitely been a perception shift. (I think the perception shift was surprisingly delayed.)
*Small disclaimer: Earth has lost battles before in the past (second Battle Royale to Light, and once very early in the site to Shadow), but those happened before Dom Watch tracked them. Still a very high conquest win rate in comparison to any other flight except Lightning.[/quote]
Part two!
Quote:
I'm here with part two of the info!!
Here's the breakdown of who is fighting more or less and whether they're winning.
And here's whether they are fighting smaller or larger flights.
To compare the two
You'll notice already that the outlier here is going to be Lightning. Other flights largely are more likely to win when they fight a larger flight (of course beating smaller flights can and has been done !!) But lightning?? Lightning punches tiny flights and laughs, probably,
Actually it's fascinating to me that Lightning is the outlier because it was also the outlier when I surveyed activity because it had a strikingly low retention rate compared to other flights (aka active population may be smaller than we think). But sample size from that was too low for me to do more than speculate
link to Sylv quote (below)
Sylvandyr wrote:
Thank you for putting this together!
I know that there were lots of battles before DW started tracking them, but it's hard to dig through to find them, and I don't trust my memory to get them all.
One thing I find interesting is that, even though Earth has the highest win rate for the data set (Dec 2014 - present), they have had a disproportionately large amount of battles compared to some other Dom-heavy flights. They're tied with Water in 2nd for most number of battles. They've battled 6 unique flights in this data set: Wind, Water, Light, Plague, Nature, Ice* (impromptu only). If we don't count the impromptu Ice battle, Earth has had arranged opportunities with 5 unique flights.
In contrast, Light and Plague are tied in last place for amount of battles for the tracked time period. (I know Light's been trying hard to get opponents, but they've had trouble getting challengers.) It's also interesting to note that in the tracked data set, 100% of Plague's battles were against unique opponents, while Light has only received willing challenges from 3 different flights (Nature, Plague, Earth).
Out of Earth (5), Light (3), and Plague (6), Plague has received the most unique deliberate challengers and Light the least.
Somehow, Earth, with its 100% win rate for battles tracked since Dec 2014, received so many willing challengers. I think that's changed now, and the number of Earth challengers over time may drop.
We may be witnessing here the powerful effects of "people's perceptions of flights in Dominance" on "the willingness of flights to challenge other flights". Plague and Light have received a lot of notoriety as feared Dominance opponents in the past, but somehow Earth managed to escape the radar, and flights continued to challenge them in spite of their 100% conquest win rate* over this data set. It's taken over 3 years for the rumors to catch up to Earth. Meanwhile, Lightning also has a terrifyingly high win % for conquest battles over the past 3 years, but they've also somehow escaped notoriety.
I think part of this effect has to do with presence during "off-weeks"; flights with an ingrained Coli culture tend to get noticed each week near the top of the board, so they remain in people's minds. Plague used to do this frequently, then Light, then Earth. (Although Earth has never really been near the bottom of the board on non-conquest-weeks, previously Plague and Light were slightly more noticeable about placing for non-battles.) I've seen comments over the past few years of people not taking Earth seriously as a Dominance flight, but I don't think from the results that anyone can claim that this is actually true. However, perceptions seem heavily influenced, especially after the Beastclans update, by people watching "who places in the top 3 spots over time". Now that Earth is placing first more often on non-conquest weeks and is currently contending for quadruple Dominance, there's definitely been a perception shift. (I think the perception shift was surprisingly delayed.)
*Small disclaimer: Earth has lost battles before in the past (second Battle Royale to Light, and once very early in the site to Shadow), but those happened before Dom Watch tracked them. Still a very high conquest win rate in comparison to any other flight except Lightning.
squid/winter | FR+3 | they/them | spelled squidra-gon (like octagon)
squid/winter | FR+3 | they/them | spelled squidra-gon (like octagon)
Free Graph of the Day:
What the flight populations would be if they had always grown at the same rate as they have since open registration
Versus what they are
[img]https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/284730588437413888/521419376600285196/unknown.png[/img]
Free Graph of the Day:
What the flight populations would be if they had always grown at the same rate as they have since open registration
Versus what they are
squid/winter | FR+3 | they/them | spelled squidra-gon (like octagon)
Thank you Squidragon.
All the info I didn't know I needed. Lol
Was actually just wondering about this. You are so amazing!
Thank you Squidragon.
All the info I didn't know I needed. Lol
Was actually just wondering about this. You are so amazing!
In a world where you can be anything... Be nice.
Thanks for all the info and hard work!! So interesting
Thanks for all the info and hard work!! So interesting
Yesss bless those graphs!
@
squidragon This is amazing work! Can I be on the ping list?
@
squidragon This is amazing work! Can I be on the ping list?
squid/winter | FR+3 | they/them | spelled squidra-gon (like octagon)
Wow... I wonder if this is the beginning of a mass migration to Earth!?!
Wow... I wonder if this is the beginning of a mass migration to Earth!?!
In a world where you can be anything... Be nice.
