Flight Rising Discussion

This is what I learned!

For reference, I put all of my data into a spreadsheet which is viewable here.

Fun Facts/Notes
Highest Cost Chest: 24,000 gold/24 gems
Lowest Cost Chest: 18.5 gold (Sorry to the person who put it up on the AH for 185 gold for 10 total chests, not 185 gems)
Time Spent on Auction House: At least 10 continuous hours
TIme Spent putting this sheet together: 2 Hours
Your average chance of getting a Nocturne Egg is 10%
Your average chance of getting really nothing worthwhile $$-wise is 36.04%
AH Prices were only calculated for items that were really worth gold.
Category: Apparel was 30.2% of the total 86 drops. Familiars was 61.6%. Specialty was 8.1%.
You had a 29.03% chance to get an apparel drop.
You had a 53.90% chance to get a familiar drop.
You had a 17.08% chance to get a specialty drop.
I lost about 785k overall. Yes, I still had fun. No, I'm not angry.
The average real life cost of a chest is $0.23 USD.

Key takeaways:

Yes, I really did spend over 21 million gold on chests.
Your chance of getting a Nocturne Egg is literally 10%.
Stop complaining the event is bugged. It's not.

Suggestions to Site Staff:

I personally don't mind losing gold because I'm a bit more well off than most here... but when fully 36% of items aren't worth more than 2-3 gems, maybe 1500-3000 gold at best - it might make sense to slightly, ever so slightly up the amount you get back OR make the 36% sellable in bulk.
This was a good event, and I had fun. Thanks!
The Blooming Hedgehide is my least favorite familiar.

Thanks for reading, let me know if you have questions!

that's dedication

@Aokuang

Hats off to you for putting all these numbers together! Just opening the chests is a pain in itself XD Do you still have the eggs? If so on the bright side, if eggs go to 300g again later in the year, thats 27kg, or a profit for you :P

On the note of useless items, I think it's just that the pool is getting so big that it's unavoidable to have such a large percentage go to old stuff. Maybe they can cycle in and out every 2 years? I don't know, that could be a terrible idea.

[quote name="SeaCat" date="2019-01-09 17:55:22" ] that's dedication [/quote] Thanks! I had a lot of fun, as I mentioned. When it comes to data, I'm a geek for it and once I noticed a pattern (bought typically in packs of 10) that there was about 1 Nocturne Egg per 10 chests, I was super curious as to the overall percentages.

[quote name="Snivy88" date="2019-01-09 17:57:19" ] @Aokuang Hats off to you for putting all these numbers together! Just opening the chests is a pain in itself XD Do you still have the eggs? If so on the bright side, if eggs go to 300g again later in the year, thats 27kg, or a profit for you :P On the note of useless items, I think it's just that the pool is getting so big that it's unavoidable to have such a large percentage go to old stuff. Maybe they can cycle in and out every 2 years? I don't know, that could be a terrible idea. [/quote] I sold 25 eggs at 199,995 gold apiece (in one stack of 25 for 4.9mil) to help fund this. I have about 70-odd left.

[quote name="Sopheroo" date="2019-01-09 17:58:52" ] @snivy88 The thing is that not all old stuff is bad stuff! The ghost candles and cobwebs from the first two years can be profitable if sold at the right moment! Probably things that are usable like the Year 1 staff too! And well, next year, the jewelery and grasp from the amber set will still be desirable. But, Jolly Jester? Not versatile enough. From the moment it was announced, it was DOA. [/quote] My problem is that I would love the chance to bulk sell apparel on the AH. I have so many pages of it.

@sopheroo

That is very true! Especially if you wait for peak season of 'I'm too impatient to wait for NotN to roll round again'

But the jester stuff...oof. Make it meltable staff please. Grasp and jewelry seems promising already for resell :P

@Aokuang
If you click the invisible x button in the corner instead of 'OK' after listing you can list apparel a little bit faster? multi select and attach for crs and pms when

I applaud your dedication to science!