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TOPIC | Roundsey's Raffle Roulette
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@Chiad @Medenadragon Hello, I have constructed a response to you both but my browser froze and I had to restart it, losing my progress and ability to submit. My current response won't be as detailed, because due to my autism I have already lost a lot of my spoons and am very drained today, I hope you understand. It gave me a double take seeing your examples and reasoning for this to be functioning like a treasure sink, letting the economy of auction houses and prices of items go down and a little more reachable for players with not a lot of treasure. I see why you won't enjoy a ticket cap. Next -- [quote]buying bucketloads of tickets doesn't mean you'll win something good either.[/quote] -- if the ticket number does not directly support the greater chance of winning a better or more valuable prize, then why exactly can you buy more than 1 ticket? What would be the point of players with lots of treasure attempting to buy more tickets if it would be known there is no correlation to winning with the more tickets you have? Won't that make them buy less tickets in total? Of course it might have been a really, REALLY unlucky coincidence for the player who bought "tens of thousands of tickets" for them to receive a starmap, or is there another algorithm for picking winners? Because no matter how you look at it in raffles, the more tickets you have on your name the greater chance of winning something valuable you are. If I am wrong on this topic feel free to correct me. I do suppose we will have to wait until months later to see if the staff will give us any sort of data on this trading post, to make any concrete judgment for the update. Also, [i]please[/i] tell me how you managed to hit the max fairgrounds treasure cap in 15/20 minutes, I barely manage to do it under 2 hours on artifracture..
@Chiad @Medenadragon

Hello, I have constructed a response to you both but my browser froze and I had to restart it, losing my progress and ability to submit. My current response won't be as detailed, because due to my autism I have already lost a lot of my spoons and am very drained today, I hope you understand.

It gave me a double take seeing your examples and reasoning for this to be functioning like a treasure sink, letting the economy of auction houses and prices of items go down and a little more reachable for players with not a lot of treasure. I see why you won't enjoy a ticket cap.

Next --
Quote:
buying bucketloads of tickets doesn't mean you'll win something good either.
-- if the ticket number does not directly support the greater chance of winning a better or more valuable prize, then why exactly can you buy more than 1 ticket? What would be the point of players with lots of treasure attempting to buy more tickets if it would be known there is no correlation to winning with the more tickets you have? Won't that make them buy less tickets in total?

Of course it might have been a really, REALLY unlucky coincidence for the player who bought "tens of thousands of tickets" for them to receive a starmap, or is there another algorithm for picking winners? Because no matter how you look at it in raffles, the more tickets you have on your name the greater chance of winning something valuable you are. If I am wrong on this topic feel free to correct me.

I do suppose we will have to wait until months later to see if the staff will give us any sort of data on this trading post, to make any concrete judgment for the update.

Also, please tell me how you managed to hit the max fairgrounds treasure cap in 15/20 minutes, I barely manage to do it under 2 hours on artifracture..
8U2S0V8.png-
JACKAL
- - -
it/its | agender | gay

currently in love!
+8 FRT
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0Eukkgx.png
[quote name="Fukase" date="2018-09-05 11:43:09" ] Next -- [quote]buying bucketloads of tickets doesn't mean you'll win something good either.[/quote] -- if the ticket number does not directly support the greater chance of winning a better or more valuable prize, then why exactly can you buy more than 1 ticket? What would be the point of players with lots of treasure attempting to buy more tickets if it would be known there is no correlation to winning with the more tickets you have? Won't that make them buy less tickets in total? [/quote] First off, the raffle is set up so that people can buy more tickets so that some of them will buy more tickets, thereby removing extra currency from the game. Quantity of tickets does increase the odds of winning; given the number of tickets sold, however, it increases it a very, very small amount. For example, last week I bought one ticket. Last I looked there were over 800,000 tickets sold last week. I'll use that as my example. 1 ticket purchased of 800,000 in total gave me an initial* chance of winning of 1/800,000. If I had purchased a second ticket, my chance would have been 2/800,001. Still pretty long odds. Frankly, they don't get all that much better** if I buy 1000 tickets. (*Initial, because the odds will change slightly as each winner's tickets are removed from the pool.) (** "Better" here is subjective, and personal mileage may vary.) Why would people bother buying more than one ticket? For that matter, why would people bother buying 30,000 tickets? There are a number of reasons, leaving aside the ones that involve not understanding how raffles work and addiction, common other reasons include "humans enjoy hope", "humans enjoy safe risk", and "humans enjoy thrill". [quote] Of course it might have been a really, REALLY unlucky coincidence for the player who bought "tens of thousands of tickets" for them to receive a starmap, or is there another algorithm for picking winners? Because no matter how you look at it in raffles, the more tickets you have on your name the greater chance of winning something valuable you are. If I am wrong on this topic feel free to correct me.[/quote] My point was not, and has never been, that buying more tickets does not increase the chances of winning. My point is that this does not mean the raffle is broken. The raffle is supposed to take treasure out of the economy while providing an incredibly small flow of desirable objects into the game. So far, it looks like it's doing exactly what it is supposed to. [quote] Also, [i]please[/i] tell me how you managed to hit the max fairgrounds treasure cap in 15/20 minutes, I barely manage to do it under 2 hours on artifracture.. [/quote] I did not (edit: intend to*) suggest I was hitting the max fairgrounds treasure cap in 15-20 minutes. I suggested that in order to earn enough to purchase the number of tickets bought to win the first raffle dragon (200, reportedly), a person could play for 15-20 minutes a day (earning 15,000-25,000t each day) for seven days and bring in 140,000t over the course of the week. Trade that in for your 280 tickets. Or don't, put it in the bank, and save up for the next thing you want. That has always been the better choice compared to a raffle or lottery. (*Apparently I missed two words in my original post, I apologize for that. I have edited both for clarity.) I should note that after my first two weeks on site (when I found it a useful place to make some starting funds) I don't bother with the fairgrounds, it's not an aspect of the site I find entertaining, so I don't play it. I understand that Glimmer & Gloom is a fast way to earn treasure, and there seem to be guides available for getting good at it quickly.
Fukase wrote on 2018-09-05 11:43:09:

Next --
Quote:
buying bucketloads of tickets doesn't mean you'll win something good either.
-- if the ticket number does not directly support the greater chance of winning a better or more valuable prize, then why exactly can you buy more than 1 ticket? What would be the point of players with lots of treasure attempting to buy more tickets if it would be known there is no correlation to winning with the more tickets you have? Won't that make them buy less tickets in total?

First off, the raffle is set up so that people can buy more tickets so that some of them will buy more tickets, thereby removing extra currency from the game.

Quantity of tickets does increase the odds of winning; given the number of tickets sold, however, it increases it a very, very small amount.
For example, last week I bought one ticket. Last I looked there were over 800,000 tickets sold last week. I'll use that as my example.
1 ticket purchased of 800,000 in total gave me an initial* chance of winning of 1/800,000.
If I had purchased a second ticket, my chance would have been 2/800,001. Still pretty long odds. Frankly, they don't get all that much better** if I buy 1000 tickets.

(*Initial, because the odds will change slightly as each winner's tickets are removed from the pool.)
(** "Better" here is subjective, and personal mileage may vary.)

Why would people bother buying more than one ticket? For that matter, why would people bother buying 30,000 tickets? There are a number of reasons, leaving aside the ones that involve not understanding how raffles work and addiction, common other reasons include "humans enjoy hope", "humans enjoy safe risk", and "humans enjoy thrill".
Quote:
Of course it might have been a really, REALLY unlucky coincidence for the player who bought "tens of thousands of tickets" for them to receive a starmap, or is there another algorithm for picking winners? Because no matter how you look at it in raffles, the more tickets you have on your name the greater chance of winning something valuable you are. If I am wrong on this topic feel free to correct me.

My point was not, and has never been, that buying more tickets does not increase the chances of winning. My point is that this does not mean the raffle is broken. The raffle is supposed to take treasure out of the economy while providing an incredibly small flow of desirable objects into the game. So far, it looks like it's doing exactly what it is supposed to.
Quote:
Also, please tell me how you managed to hit the max fairgrounds treasure cap in 15/20 minutes, I barely manage to do it under 2 hours on artifracture..

I did not (edit: intend to*) suggest I was hitting the max fairgrounds treasure cap in 15-20 minutes. I suggested that in order to earn enough to purchase the number of tickets bought to win the first raffle dragon (200, reportedly), a person could play for 15-20 minutes a day (earning 15,000-25,000t each day) for seven days and bring in 140,000t over the course of the week. Trade that in for your 280 tickets. Or don't, put it in the bank, and save up for the next thing you want. That has always been the better choice compared to a raffle or lottery.

(*Apparently I missed two words in my original post, I apologize for that. I have edited both for clarity.)

I should note that after my first two weeks on site (when I found it a useful place to make some starting funds) I don't bother with the fairgrounds, it's not an aspect of the site I find entertaining, so I don't play it. I understand that Glimmer & Gloom is a fast way to earn treasure, and there seem to be guides available for getting good at it quickly.
#UnnamedisValid
@Fukase
As far as gaining treasure quickly, generally using this guide for Gimmer and Gloom will help you max out fairgrounds in under 40 min, once you get the hang of it:
http://www1.flightrising.com/forums/gde/2489666
Its nice in that it concisely spells out the pattern to use without being so cluttered like other guides.

As far as ticket amount correlating to winning prizes, while yes the amount bought does directly influence your chances to win something, it neither guarantees you a win, nor does it guarantee you winning what you want. The amount of tickets you'd need to buy to (almost possibly) guarantee you win something is going to cost more then then any one prize on its own. Like my example of the one poor bloke who bought tens of thousands of tickets the first week. The only thing worth the amount he spent on tickets was the dragon, which he obviously did not get.
Basically if you buy enough tickets to actually make sure you win something, you almost certainly will come out poorer for it, unless you get stupidly lucky and get the dragon. But when the odds for that dragon are pretty much 1% no matter how many tickets you buy, the chances of that happening remain slim to none.
@Fukase
As far as gaining treasure quickly, generally using this guide for Gimmer and Gloom will help you max out fairgrounds in under 40 min, once you get the hang of it:
http://www1.flightrising.com/forums/gde/2489666
Its nice in that it concisely spells out the pattern to use without being so cluttered like other guides.

As far as ticket amount correlating to winning prizes, while yes the amount bought does directly influence your chances to win something, it neither guarantees you a win, nor does it guarantee you winning what you want. The amount of tickets you'd need to buy to (almost possibly) guarantee you win something is going to cost more then then any one prize on its own. Like my example of the one poor bloke who bought tens of thousands of tickets the first week. The only thing worth the amount he spent on tickets was the dragon, which he obviously did not get.
Basically if you buy enough tickets to actually make sure you win something, you almost certainly will come out poorer for it, unless you get stupidly lucky and get the dragon. But when the odds for that dragon are pretty much 1% no matter how many tickets you buy, the chances of that happening remain slim to none.
#UnnamedIsValid
Unnamed dragons need love too! There is no shame in having unnamed permas, having dragons with unnamed parents and/or offspring, or exalting unnamed dragons! Leaving dragons unnamed is a perfectly valid playstyle!
@Chiad

As I was responding to two people, not one, you might want to re-read some things in my post if you're unsure! I was responding to @Medenadragon, especially when you quoted a paragraph of mine directed at them and responded it as if it was for you. Sorry for the confusion.

Thank you to both of you for replying, I'm still unsure on this as a whole - but I understand where you guys are coming from.
@Chiad

As I was responding to two people, not one, you might want to re-read some things in my post if you're unsure! I was responding to @Medenadragon, especially when you quoted a paragraph of mine directed at them and responded it as if it was for you. Sorry for the confusion.

Thank you to both of you for replying, I'm still unsure on this as a whole - but I understand where you guys are coming from.
8U2S0V8.png-
JACKAL
- - -
it/its | agender | gay

currently in love!
+8 FRT
-
0Eukkgx.png
@Larrea Thank you for clarifying!

Honestly I have highly mixed feelings on them being tradable, I was fully expecting the Progen treatment for them, and it’s nice to know they’re available for purchase later on if I get the chance. But on another hand their presence brings in market changes, mainly to pricing. How much more is a Roundsey G1 compared to a normal G1, and what about their colors/genes? And are they worth less if they’re modified in any way? Of course their market will take a long time to really even out, if ever. I don’t feel like they will impact the G1 market too much simply due to the limited amount of them, at most coming in at one a week.
@Larrea Thank you for clarifying!

Honestly I have highly mixed feelings on them being tradable, I was fully expecting the Progen treatment for them, and it’s nice to know they’re available for purchase later on if I get the chance. But on another hand their presence brings in market changes, mainly to pricing. How much more is a Roundsey G1 compared to a normal G1, and what about their colors/genes? And are they worth less if they’re modified in any way? Of course their market will take a long time to really even out, if ever. I don’t feel like they will impact the G1 market too much simply due to the limited amount of them, at most coming in at one a week.
i'm legit in tears of joy about the fact there's finally a way for newer peeps to get sprites


time to spend my weekend grinding for treasure


people getting their jimmies rustled over dumb stuff like this makes me lose faith in the community

i want an og sprite and not the lame recolor

i'm a broke college student

no way I am paying hundreds of irl monies on that
i'm legit in tears of joy about the fact there's finally a way for newer peeps to get sprites


time to spend my weekend grinding for treasure


people getting their jimmies rustled over dumb stuff like this makes me lose faith in the community

i want an og sprite and not the lame recolor

i'm a broke college student

no way I am paying hundreds of irl monies on that
tumblr_ozp7mdeVwC1w8xkufo9_250.png
@NineTails13

To put things in perspective I think there are fewer than 50 triples on the site in total, perhaps fewer (not counting progesn, which make up a big proportion of triples). Therefore the introduction of a triple (at worst every week) every few weeks, especially in incredibly popular colors, will indeed have an influence on the market if it can be traded. That could amount to 30 new triples a year; with the new color wheel expansion we are lucky to see 5-10 born each year as it stands right now. There has only been 1 born (that I know of) in 2018.

I certainly don't mind seeing the outrageous price of triples go down as a result of infrequent introduction of these into the market, as that will benefit everyone who aspires to collect them.

However, my main concern is not the G1 market but the level of drama, tension, and incitments for harassment introducing these triples will have. Allowing users to sell these triples will definitely have a greater influence on all of those factors, which is why I still really wish the staff would choose to make these triples untradeable.
@NineTails13

To put things in perspective I think there are fewer than 50 triples on the site in total, perhaps fewer (not counting progesn, which make up a big proportion of triples). Therefore the introduction of a triple (at worst every week) every few weeks, especially in incredibly popular colors, will indeed have an influence on the market if it can be traded. That could amount to 30 new triples a year; with the new color wheel expansion we are lucky to see 5-10 born each year as it stands right now. There has only been 1 born (that I know of) in 2018.

I certainly don't mind seeing the outrageous price of triples go down as a result of infrequent introduction of these into the market, as that will benefit everyone who aspires to collect them.

However, my main concern is not the G1 market but the level of drama, tension, and incitments for harassment introducing these triples will have. Allowing users to sell these triples will definitely have a greater influence on all of those factors, which is why I still really wish the staff would choose to make these triples untradeable.
I just want to say that I miss the trading post artwork. I was hoping to see it expanded, and instead we now have ugly faded boxes that don't even all fit on my screen.

Usually when you make a change, improving the aesthetics is a big factor in what you do, so this is a big disappointment. I hope you will change it!!!!!


On the other hand, Roundsey's art is really lovely.
I just want to say that I miss the trading post artwork. I was hoping to see it expanded, and instead we now have ugly faded boxes that don't even all fit on my screen.

Usually when you make a change, improving the aesthetics is a big factor in what you do, so this is a big disappointment. I hope you will change it!!!!!


On the other hand, Roundsey's art is really lovely.
bUUy115.png PLAY IS SACRED QiZFijL.png
Yay?
Yay?
ANOTHER triple?

.....
ANOTHER triple?

.....
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